EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Waste Management, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall62
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 8/9Grey zoneBetter than 62% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
38
30.2x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
53
7.2%7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
82
11.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
50
3.0x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
66
1.66%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
44
3.5%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
70
19▲3Top tier
WM

WM Waste Management, Inc.

Waste Management, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
213.46
▼ ⁦-0.61%⁩ (-1.31)
Market Cap$85.8B
Beta0.44
52w Low52w High
194.11248.13
Last Week
⁦-3.73%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.68%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-2.44%⁩
Last Year
⁦-1.94%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$213
Analyst target · 8 analysts
$244
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$244–$244⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$111
⁦-48%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$111–$244⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 8 analysts setting price target
$244.00
⁦+14.3%⁩
Current Price $213.46·Median $244.00
Low
$244.00
High
$244.00
Street summary

Target Holds Steady as Analyst Count Declines

The consensus price target remained at 244, unchanged over the past 1, 7, or 30 days, with the high, low, and median all at the same level. Compared with the current price of 213.46, the target implies an upside of approximately 14.3%. However, the number of analysts declined from 13 to 8 in the latest comparisons, reducing the breadth of the sample and increasing uncertainty about how representative the consensus is.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.79
Buy
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
68%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
3
16
9
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.65 → 3.79
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    CIBC
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    30.19x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    24.65x
    4.57x36.58x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.37x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.2%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.2%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    4.7%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    40.9%
    8.6%54.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    11.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.02x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.7%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    50.1%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.80
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Waste Management, Inc. operates an integrated environmental services platform combining waste collection and disposal, recycling, renewable natural gas production, and healthcare solutions. Its ability to generate revenue and profits depends on collection route density, its network of disposal and recycling facilities, pricing, and operating efficiency, while expanding the value of this network through complementary services and small solid waste acquisitions.

In Q2 FY2026, WM reported revenue of $6.7 billion, gross profit of $2.7 billion, net income of $785 million, and earnings per share of $1.95. These figures represent a gross margin of approximately 40.3% and a net income margin of approximately 11.7%, while the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 30.9% and expanded 40 basis points year over year, despite a 60-basis-point negative impact from the comparison with the prior year's wildfire cleanup work and a 40-basis-point impact from energy fees.

The operating growth mix came from several units: company earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 5.5%, or 9.1% excluding the prior year's wildfire cleanup contribution, while recycling and renewable energy earnings increased by approximately 33% combined. The Healthcare Solutions margin also reached 19% after improving by 200 basis points, while collection and disposal activities added 140 basis points to company margin growth through pricing, cost control, and mix improvement. On a trailing 12-month basis in FY2026, revenue reached $25.7 billion, gross profit was $10.5 billion, and net income was $2.9 billion.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 29, 2026, WM raised its FY2026 margin guidance by 20 basis points to a range of 31%–31.2%, while maintaining its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization and free cash flow guidance despite lowering its revenue range to $26.275–$26.475 billion.
  • In Q2 FY2026, the company delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.02 versus expectations of $1.99, although revenue of $6.68 billion came in below estimates of $6.71 billion; this reflects the ability of pricing and cost reductions to protect earnings from weaker volumes.
  • SmartTruck generated more than $300 million in annualized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization through service upgrades, route optimization, and cost reductions, while automation helped recycling facilities reduce labor cost per ton by 30% and process 12% more volume year over year.
  • WM produced an additional 1.6 million MMBtu of renewable natural gas in Q2 FY2026, and recycling and renewable energy together increased the company margin by 30 basis points, despite delays in connecting two gas plants to pipelines.
  • Cross-selling benefits in Healthcare Solutions reached $32 million in annualized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and the company is targeting more than $300 million in synergies by the end of 2027. In Q2 FY2026, this unit's selling, general, and administrative expenses declined 15%, and management expects core pricing to exceed 5.5% by the end of FY2026.
  • WM closed complementary solid waste acquisitions valued at $235 million during Q2 FY2026, after leverage returned to the target range at 2.96 times. On August 26, 2026, the company announced Jim Fish's retirement as chief executive officer and from the board of directors, and appointed president John Morris as his successor as chief executive officer.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 FY2026 results demonstrate the strength of the earnings model even amid revenue weakness: the adjusted margin expanded 40 basis points, quarterly free cash flow increased 35%, and first-half free cash flow rose by more than 56% to $2.02 billion.
  • +Automation and technology provide WM with measurable operating leverage; the company kept collection operating cost growth below 1.7% despite labor costs rising by approximately 4%, while selling, general, and administrative expenses fell to 9.9% of revenue for the first time since the 2024 acquisition of the Healthcare Solutions business.
  • +The earnings mix beyond the core solid waste business is expanding, as recycling and renewable energy earnings grew by approximately 33%, and the Healthcare Solutions margin improved by 200 basis points to 19%, with a stated path to more than $300 million in synergies by the end of 2027.
  • +Liquidity supports capital allocation flexibility; operating cash flow in the first half of FY2026 reached approximately $3.23 billion, and the company allocated $1 billion to share repurchases and $764 million to dividends, while remaining within its target leverage range of 2.5–3 times.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average target of $244, but both the highest and lowest targets are $244, so the consensus provides no dispersion that can be used to measure differences in opinion. This target is only approximately 1.7% below the 52-week high of $248.13, compared with a low of $194.11; the data do not include a valid comparable price-to-earnings ratio, making WM's valuation more dependent on continued margin expansion and cash flow despite the lowered revenue outlook.

BuyAnalyst target: $244(+14.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were WM's key results in Q2 FY2026?

WM reported revenue of $6.7 billion, gross profit of $2.7 billion, and net income of $785 million. Earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $1.95, while reported adjusted earnings were $2.02 versus analyst expectations of $1.99. The adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 30.9%, up 40 basis points year over year. Quarterly free cash flow also increased 35%.

Why did WM lower its FY2026 revenue guidance despite exceeding earnings expectations?

The company narrowed its revenue range to $26.275–$26.475 billion, approximately 0.5% below its previous guidance. This was mainly due to weaker collection and disposal volumes, lower recycling brokerage activity, and delays in connecting two renewable natural gas plants to pipelines. WM estimated the revenue decline from collection and disposal volumes at approximately $250 million, partially offset by $175 million in additional energy fees. In contrast, it maintained its operating earnings and free cash flow guidance and raised its margin range to 31%–31.2%.

How do technology and artificial intelligence contribute to WM's earnings?

The company said on its July 29, 2026 call that SmartTruck generates more than $300 million in annualized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The benefits come from service upgrades, route optimization, and lower operating costs using artificial intelligence and operational data. Recycling automation also reduced labor cost per ton by 30% compared with older facilities and helped increase processed volumes by 12% in Q2 FY2026. In collection, operating cost growth remained below 1.7% despite labor costs increasing by approximately 4%.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −WM lowered its FY2026 revenue range by approximately 0.5% to $26.275–$26.475 billion due to weaker-than-planned volumes, lower recycling brokerage activity, and delays in connecting renewable natural gas plants to pipelines. The company expects collection and disposal volumes to decline by approximately 1% for the year, or approximately 0.8% according to the later detail provided on the call, instead of its original expectation of 0.4% growth.
  • −Revenue faces pressure from the loss of some national commercial accounts due to pricing and from Q1 FY2026 volumes failing to recover after winter conditions as management had expected. The company estimated the impact of lower collection and disposal volumes on FY2026 revenue at approximately $250 million, before a partial offset of $175 million from higher energy fees.
  • −Residential activity remains in contraction; volumes declined 2.9% in Q2 FY2026, despite the rate of decline improving by 200 basis points sequentially. Management sees a potential path to stable or positive volumes between mid-2027 and the end of 2027, meaning a full recovery had not occurred during the reported period.
  • −Part of renewable energy growth depends on third parties completing the pipeline connections for two plants, which had been built but had not begun injecting gas as of the July 29, 2026 call. This delay reduced expected gas volumes for FY2026, and management described the start of injection before year-end only as a hope rather than a guaranteed timeline.
  • −A recycling facility in Arizona experienced a fire, and management expects its operating issues to partially offset the potential benefit from improving recycled commodity prices. In addition, 90% of FY2026 RIN credit volumes are locked in, so the impact of higher prices on that year's results will be limited.
  • −The historical valuation range represents a trading risk; the stock traded between $194.11 and $248.13 over 52 weeks, a spread of approximately 28% between the two limits. The consensus target of $244 is also only approximately 1.7% below the top of the range, and the data do not provide a price-to-earnings ratio that would allow an assessment of whether earnings justify this level.
What is the status of WM's Healthcare Solutions business?

The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin in Healthcare Solutions reached 19% in Q2 FY2026, after improving by 200 basis points. The unit's selling, general, and administrative expenses declined 15% and represented 18% of its revenue at the end of the quarter, compared with approximately 24%–25% at the time of the acquisition. Cross-selling initiatives had generated $32 million in annualized operating earnings as of the call, versus an initial target of $50 million. The company remains on track to achieve more than $300 million in synergies by the end of 2027.

What are the main operating risks facing WM's growth?

Management expects collection and disposal volumes to be approximately flat in the second half of FY2026, after coming in below plan in the first half. Residential volumes declined 2.9% in Q2 FY2026, and the company also lost some national commercial accounts due to pricing. In renewable energy, the operation of two completed plants depends on third parties finishing the pipeline connections. Operating issues resulting from a fire at a recycling facility in Arizona may also affect the benefits of improving recycled material prices.

What did WM announce about its executive leadership on August 26, 2026?

WM announced on August 26, 2026 that Jim Fish would retire as chief executive officer and from the board of directors after more than 25 years with the company. The board appointed John Morris, who had been serving as company president, as his successor as chief executive officer. Morris had participated in the presentation of Q2 FY2026 results and discussed operating performance, volumes, and pricing. The data do not include additional details about any other executive changes associated with this announcement.