| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 28 | — | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 15 | -17.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 17 | -17.0% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 36 | — | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 41 | 1.85% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 59 | -1.1% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 77 | 4 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
West Fraser Timber produces wood building materials through three core operating segments: Lumber, North American Engineered Wood Products, and European Operations. Its portfolio includes SYP and SPF lumber, OSB panels, plywood, LVL products, and MDF, so its revenue is tied to shipment volumes, realized prices, mill efficiency, and fiber, resin, and transportation costs. In Q2 fiscal 2026, all three core segments contributed adjusted EBITDA, while higher realized prices in Lumber and Europe supported the sequential improvement.
Q2 fiscal 2026 sales were approximately $1.4 billion, compared with approximately $1.3 billion in the previous quarter, and adjusted EBITDA was $59 million at a margin of approximately 4%, including a favorable $13 million softwood lumber duty settlement. Lumber generated $41 million, North American Engineered Wood Products generated $13 million, and Europe generated $13 million, while the Other segment recorded an adjusted loss of $8 million due to a maintenance outage at Caribou. Performance benefited from higher net mill realizations and shipments, but management said consolidated underlying operating performance remained stable between the quarters after excluding duty adjustments.
The annual financial statements show that the industry cycle continues to pressure profitability: revenue declined from $6.2 billion in fiscal 2024 to $5.5 billion in fiscal 2025, and the net loss widened from $5 million to $937 million, with a loss per share of $12.08. Gross profit also declined from $1.8 billion to $1.3 billion. Nevertheless, the company ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with approximately $1 billion in liquidity, repaid $148 million of operating borrowings, and reduced net debt by $140 million, bringing the net debt-to-capital ratio to 5%.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $83.5 and a target range of $81 to $86, all above the 52-week range high of $76.99. However, there is no positive P/E ratio given the loss per share of $12.08 in fiscal 2025, making the valuation more dependent on expectations for a cyclical improvement and lower unit costs than on current annual earnings. The Henderson ramp-up and strong liquidity support this view, while weak demand, the approximately 4% adjusted margin, duty exposure, and resin costs remain factors that could delay a re-rating.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Sales were approximately $1.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $59 million at a margin of approximately 4%. Higher realized prices in Lumber and Europe added $51 million to adjusted EBITDA compared with the previous quarter, while Canadian SPF shipments increased 18% and SYP shipments increased 5%. The result also included a favorable $13 million softwood lumber duty settlement, so management said underlying performance remained stable after excluding duty adjustments.
Henderson’s production in Q2 fiscal 2026 increased to more than double its level in the previous quarter and is now regularly exceeding the old mill’s output. Improvements in the U.S. lumber portfolio helped production remain approximately in line with the comparable period despite operating fewer mills during the first half of fiscal 2026. Management expects continued production gains and lower unit costs as Henderson ramps up through the remainder of fiscal 2026.
Demand is tied to the housing sector, which management described as challenging due to high mortgage rates and consumers’ focus on affordability. Resin and wax costs also increased by approximately $13 million between Q1 and Q2 fiscal 2026, with estimated annual sensitivity of approximately $15 million for every $10 change in the crude oil price. Transportation constraints and tariff exposure for Canadian LVL and plywood shipments add further pressure, while the adjusted EBITDA margin remained only approximately 4%.
The company ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with approximately $1 billion in liquidity, with only $55 million drawn on a $1 billion revolving facility. It generated $192 million in operating cash flow, then repaid $148 million of operating borrowings and reduced net debt by $140 million. The net debt-to-capital ratio was 5%, but the company did not repurchase shares during the quarter in order to preserve financial flexibility.
The Lumber segment generated $41 million of adjusted EBITDA, supported by higher net mill realizations and increased shipments. The North American Engineered Wood Products segment generated $13 million, compared with $11 million in the previous quarter, while Europe generated $13 million compared with $10 million. The Other segment recorded an adjusted loss of $8 million, primarily due to the maintenance outage at Caribou.
The stock has a consensus Buy rating, with an average price target of $83.5 within a range of $81 to $86. The average target is above the 52-week range high of $76.99, reflecting expectations for improved earnings and costs following asset investments. However, the loss per share was $12.08 in fiscal 2025 and there is no positive P/E ratio, so the valuation depends more on a future recovery than on established annual profitability.
