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Stocks
Western Digital Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall89
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 7/9SafeBetter than 89% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
26
18.4x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
88
35.7%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
82
33.8%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
92
0.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
27
0.11%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
82
369.9%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
60
12▲3Around median
WDC

WDC Western Digital Corporation

Western Digital Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
447.18
▼ ⁦-2.98%⁩ (-13.75)
Market Cap$154.1B
Beta2.22
52w Low52w High
93.92799.87
Last Week
⁦-0.38%⁩
Last Month
⁦+2.11%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.76%⁩
Last Year
⁦+373.01%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$447
Analyst target · 8 analysts
$605
⁦+35%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$400–$1050⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$155
⁦-65%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$155–$605⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 8 analysts setting price target
$647.58
⁦+44.8%⁩
Current Price $447.18·Median $605.00
Low
$400.00
High
$1050.00
Current price
$447.18
Average target
$647.58
Street summary

Western Digital (WDC) Price Target Update

Bullish tilt

Western Digital stock has seen notable quantitative optimism over the past thirty days, with the consensus price target rising by 13.54% from 570.33 to 647.58, representing a clear price premium over the current price of 508.8. This trend is supported by strong annual earnings growth expectations, with estimates pointing to a jump in earnings per share from 9.97 in 2026 to 37.39 by 2029, alongside steady growth in projected revenue.

As of 2026-08-14
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.96
Buy
Analyst coverage
26
Buy conviction
81%
High
Target dispersion
145%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time26 analysts rating
4
17
5
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.81 → 3.96
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-06
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-06
    UBS
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.42x
    6.87x54.92x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    25.59x
    5.19x41.53x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    33.53x
    4.52x36.15x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    2.2%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    35.7%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    374.2%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    48.9%
    12.9%79.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    33.8%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.14x
    0.26x3.22x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.1%
    0.0%3.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    1.8%
    4.4%96.7%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    22.48
    -10.9113.66
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Western Digital Corporation is a specialized company following the separation of the SanDisk business, focused on hard disk drives HDD, and derives most of its business from meeting the high-capacity storage needs of cloud data centers. In Q4 fiscal 2026, the Cloud segment represented about 89% of revenue at $3.3 billion, while Client contributed 6% at $225 million and Consumer 5% at $187 million; making demand for nearline drives from cloud customers the company’s largest economic driver.

Revenue in Q4 fiscal 2026 reached about $3.75 billion, up 44% year over year, with 231 exabytes shipped, up 22%. Gross profit according to EDGAR data was about $2.0 billion and net income was $3.2 billion, while non-GAAP results showed a gross margin of 54.4%, operating income of $1.66 billion, an operating margin of 44.2%, and earnings per share of $3.56. The company also generated free cash flow of $1.3 billion and a free cash flow margin of 34% during the quarter.

In fiscal 2026, revenue rose 36% to $12.9 billion, while gross profit according to EDGAR reached about $6.3 billion, net income was $9.4 billion, and earnings per share were $24.28. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin expanded 970 basis points to 49.1%, operating margin reached 37.3%, and earnings per share doubled to $10.22, while free cash flow reached $3.5 billion at a margin of 27%. Western Digital ended the year with net cash of $500 million after reporting $1.6 billion in cash and $1.1 billion in debt.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Western Digital expects Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, equivalent to year-over-year growth of 45% at the midpoint, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.00, plus or minus $0.15.
  • The company began shipping ePMR drives with capacities of up to 40 terabytes in Q4 fiscal 2026, entered volume production with two customers, and targets this platform to represent more than 50% of nearline exabytes by Q3 fiscal 2027.
  • Western Digital targets shipping a 44-terabyte HAMR drive in the first half of calendar 2027 and is also working to increase UltraSMR to about 60% of nearline exabyte shipments by the end of fiscal 2027. It is also sampling high-bandwidth drives with five customers, targeting up to eight times the performance of current drives without a comparable increase in power consumption.
  • Improved pricing raised the average year-over-year increase in price per terabyte from the high single digits in the previous quarter to the high teens in Q4 fiscal 2026, alongside an approximately 8% year-over-year decline in cost per terabyte. The mix of higher capacities, pricing, and manufacturing efficiency helped expand gross margin by 1,310 basis points to 54.4%.
  • The company is holding discussions with customers about long-term agreements extending into calendar years 2029, 2030, and 2031, while management emphasizes strong visibility into exabyte demand. This comes alongside demand that the company attributes to neoclouds, AI labs, and physical AI companies, including strong demand from an autonomous vehicle company.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on actual growth accompanied by improved profitability: Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue rose 44%, gross margin expanded to 54.4%, and operating income increased 126% to $1.66 billion.
  • +The product roadmap offers a measurable transition to higher capacities, beginning with volume production of 40-terabyte ePMR drives, followed by 44-terabyte HAMR drives in the first half of calendar 2027, with a 50-terabyte product targeted for the second half of calendar 2027.
  • +The company combines a higher price per terabyte with a lower cost per terabyte; year-over-year price growth reached the high teens, compared with an approximately 8% cost decline, and management targets a long-term cost reduction of about 10% annually.
  • +The business generated $3.5 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2026, and the company returned $3.1 billion to shareholders, then ended the year with net cash of $500 million. In Q4 fiscal 2026 alone, it repurchased $1 billion of shares and paid $54 million in dividends.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $647.58, within a wide range from $400 to $1,050; the average is below the 52-week range high of $799.87, while the highest target exceeds it. No standardized price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided information, and the large gap between Morningstar’s $420 target and the consensus average, together with the share-price decline following the August 6, 2026 results, reflects material disagreement over margin sustainability and the pace of exabyte shipment growth.

BuyAnalyst target: $647.58(+44.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving Western Digital’s growth in fiscal 2027?

Management links growth to demand for data storage from cloud services, inference AI, Agentic AI, and physical AI. The company expects Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, and year-over-year growth of 45% at the midpoint. It also targets exabyte shipment growth exceeding 25% over the medium and long term, supported by higher-capacity ePMR, UltraSMR, and HAMR drives.

How important are ePMR and HAMR drives to WDC’s performance?

Western Digital began shipping ePMR drives with capacities of up to 40 terabytes during Q4 fiscal 2026, and they are entering volume production with two customers. The company targets the 40-terabyte platform to represent more than 50% of nearline exabytes by Q3 fiscal 2027. According to the roadmap, it plans to ship 44-terabyte HAMR drives in the first half of calendar 2027, followed by 50-terabyte products in the second half.

How was Western Digital’s revenue distributed in Q4 fiscal 2026?

Cloud generated $3.3 billion in revenue and represented 89% of the total, with year-over-year growth of 43%. Client generated about $225 million, or 6% of revenue, up 61% year over year, while Consumer recorded about $187 million, or 5%, up 38%. The latter two segments benefited from improved pricing, but Cloud’s dominance makes results highly dependent on data center customers’ demand for nearline drives.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Revenue concentration represents a fundamental risk, as 89% of Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue came from Cloud, and management noted that major customers do not purchase linearly and that differences in their CMR and UltraSMR mix may make exabyte shipments volatile from one quarter to another.
  • −Exabyte shipment growth slowed to 22% in Q4 fiscal 2026, compared with 25% growth during fiscal 2026 and about 30% in several previous quarters according to analysts’ questions. The return to acceleration expected by management depends on successfully ramping production of 40-terabyte ePMR drives and then launching 44-terabyte HAMR drives on schedule.
  • −Margin sustainability remains under scrutiny in a competitive market; one analyst on the call noted that a major competitor is targeting a gross margin about 200 basis points above Western Digital’s guidance for the quarter ending in September. Although Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance for a gross margin between 55% and 56% exceeds the previous quarter’s margin, the share-price decline following the August 6, 2026 results demonstrated the market’s sensitivity to any margin gap versus competitors.
  • −The memory sector came under pressure on August 24, 2026 after reports that Washington might allow Apple to use Chinese suppliers for memory chips, and Western Digital shares fell 7% in that session according to the provided news report. This highlights the stock’s exposure to changes in trade policy and competition with Chinese suppliers even when the company’s operating results remain strong.
  • −The valuation carries clear repricing risk because of the wide range of expectations; the average analyst target of $647.58 is below the 52-week range high of $799.87, while individual targets range from $400 to $1,050. Morningstar also raised its fair value estimate to only $420 on August 6, 2026, a level far below the consensus average.
  • −Net insider sales during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 24, 2026 reached about $15.1 million, with 64 sales and no purchases recorded. This remains a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the available information provides no evidence to the contrary.
  • Have Western Digital’s margins and cash flows improved?

    Non-GAAP gross margin reached 54.4% in Q4 fiscal 2026, up 1,310 basis points year over year. Operating margin reached 44.2% after operating income rose to $1.66 billion, while free cash flow was $1.3 billion at a margin of 34%. For fiscal 2026, free cash flow reached $3.5 billion, or 27% of revenue.

    What are the key risks to monitor in WDC stock?

    The first risk is the concentration of 89% of Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue in Cloud and the dependence of shipments on several large customers with volatile quarterly demand. Exabyte growth also slowed to 22% in that quarter, while the expected acceleration depends on ramping ePMR production and launching HAMR on schedule. Margin competition, trade tensions related to Chinese memory suppliers, and the wide range of analyst targets between $400 and $1,050 add further sources of uncertainty.