| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 29 | 38.3x | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 54 | 5.7% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 67 | 7.8% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 56 | 3.2x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 45 | 0.85% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 42 | -7.0% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 66 | 16 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Waste Connections operates an integrated network for the collection, transfer, processing, and disposal of solid waste at its landfills, across competitive markets and others where it operates through exclusive franchises. The company generates additional revenue from exploration and production E&P waste, sales of recycled materials and landfill gas, and renewable natural gas RNG projects, while expanding its network through acquisitions of collection, transfer, processing, and disposal assets. Ownership of landfill infrastructure and rail transportation networks helps internalize waste volumes and reduce third-party disposal costs.
In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $2.562 billion, up 6.4% year over year, or $155 million, including $46 million from acquisitions net of divestitures. According to EDGAR data, gross profit was approximately $1.1 billion, representing a gross margin of about 42.9%, while net income was $296.4 million and earnings per share were $1.17. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $840.1 million, up 6.8%, with a margin of 32.8%.
Solid waste operations led performance through an overall price increase of 6.7%, including 5.6% core price and 1.1% from fuel and materials surcharges, while volumes declined 1.9%. E&P revenue rose 18% year over year and 12% compared with Q1 FY2026, while the recycled commodity basket increased between 10% and 15% compared with the end of 2025, and landfill gas sales increased 15% compared with Q1 FY2026.
The average analyst price target is $199.83, approximately 7.8% above the 52-week range high of $185.33, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” Analyst estimates range from $176 to $218; the low end falls within the 52-week range of $146.89–$185.33, while the high end assumes an advance of approximately 17.6% above the peak, revealing meaningful divergence over the potential scale of improvement. The data does not include a usable earnings multiple, so the stock assessment here is based on the target range relative to the 52-week range and the company's ability to achieve its raised FY2026 outlook despite weak volumes and fuel pressures.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue increased 6.4% to $2.562 billion, including $46 million from acquisitions net of divestitures. Core price increased 5.6%, while the overall increase after fuel and materials surcharges reached 6.7%, against a 1.9% decline in volumes. E&P revenue also grew 18% year over year and 12% compared with Q1 FY2026.
Management expects revenue between $10.02 billion and $10.05 billion, after raising the range by $100 million to $120 million compared with its February 2026 outlook. It expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $3.33 billion and $3.34 billion, with a margin between 33.2% and 33.3%. It maintained its adjusted free cash flow outlook between $1.4 billion and $1.45 billion, including $100 million to $150 million of Chiquita Canyon closure impacts and capital expenditures of $1.25 billion.
The Pro Pricing application for price optimization generated approximately $20 million in annual adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization improvement through FY2026. Testing of the real-time routing algorithm began in late Q2 FY2026, and management is targeting savings of $40 million to $50 million from it during 2028 and 2029. Customer service technologies and the mobile application are also targeting an initial impact of $20 million to $35 million, as part of a total investment of approximately $100 million across seven programs.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Approximately one-third of the RNG portfolio was already operational entering FY2026, after which several other projects began production, including a company-owned facility that entered service in July 2026. Management expects all plants to be operational by early 2027, with most development capital expenditures completed by the end of FY2026. RNG's contribution exceeded the previous FY2026 assumption by approximately $15 million to $20 million, while management expects remaining expenditures in 2027 to be very limited.
Solid waste volumes declined 1.9% and container pulls fell 2% during Q2 FY2026, amid weak construction activity and the suspension of some projects due to higher fuel costs. Fuel reduced the adjusted margin by approximately 40 basis points, while customer sensitivity to fuel surcharges added an estimated 10 to 15 basis points to volume attrition. The company intends to recover higher fuel costs through surcharges over time, but the pace of recovery remains tied to the rate of change in diesel prices.
Through Q2 FY2026, the company completed acquisitions representing approximately $100 million in annual revenue, in addition to $30 million of exclusive franchise transactions that were expected to close in Q3 FY2026. It expanded the rail network connected to the Arrowhead landfill by approximately 300% during the two years preceding the 2026-07-23 call, benefiting from waste transportation from the Northeast coast. During Q2 FY2026, it also began operating long-term agreements to transport waste from Miami-Dade to its landfills in North Central Florida.
