| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 51 | 38.2x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 74 | 16.1% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 81 | 11.0% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 43 | 3.9x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 5 | 0.00% | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 30 | 1.0% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 82 | 9 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Valvoline operates a network of automotive preventive maintenance service centers, focused on quick oil changes alongside non-oil-change services, including cooling system cleaning, differential fluid service, and other services recommended by vehicle manufacturers. The company generates revenue through company-operated stores and its franchise network. Total system-wide store sales exceeded $1 billion for the first time during fiscal Q3 2026, up 19%, while same-store sales rose 8%. As of June 30, 2026, the network included 2,456 stores after adding 47 net stores during the quarter, comprising 26 franchise openings and one closure, 20 company-operated openings, and the conversion of two stores from the Express Care platform.
In fiscal Q3 2026, Valvoline reported, according to EDGAR data, revenue of $544.6 million, gross profit of $214.9 million, net income of $64.5 million, and diluted earnings per share of $0.51; this equates to a gross margin of approximately 39.5% and a net income margin of approximately 11.8%. On the adjusted basis presented by management, revenue was approximately $545 million, up 24% year over year, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $162 million, up 25%, with a margin of 29.8%, while adjusted earnings per share were $0.57 versus analyst expectations of $0.50.
Fiscal Q3 2026 growth came from the core business and Breeze's contribution, which management said performed in line with expectations, with 12 of its stores converted to the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand by the end of the quarter. The increase in average ticket accounted for more than three-quarters of same-store sales growth, supported by pricing, a shift toward higher-priced services, and greater penetration of non-oil-change services, while the remainder came from transaction growth. Adjusted gross margin declined 50 basis points to 40% due to higher service delivery costs and depreciation on new stores, while selling, general, and administrative expenses fell to 17% of sales, down 90 basis points year over year.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $45.38, within a range of $41 to $48, with a consensus Buy rating; the average is above the 52-week range high of $41.33, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 16%. With no valid price-to-earnings multiple available in the data, analyst targets should be weighed against the 52-week range of $28.50–$41.33 and the lubricant cost pressure expected to reduce fiscal Q4 2026 margin by approximately 300–400 basis points.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue was $544.6 million according to EDGAR, versus approximately $545 million in the adjusted presentation, and was up 24% year over year according to the August 5, 2026 call. Net income reached $64.5 million, while earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $0.51 and adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, exceeding expectations of $0.50. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization also rose 25% to $162 million, and its margin expanded by 30 basis points to 29.8%. The results were supported by an 8% increase in same-store sales, transaction growth, pricing, and Breeze's contribution.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz constrained supplies of Group III base oils, a key component in full synthetic lubricants. Management expects finished lubricant costs to be approximately 60% above their March 2026 level, equivalent to an additional $5–$7 per oil change depending on the product type. Valvoline said its strategic relationship with its supplier provides reliable supply and that it does not expect a near-term supply issue unless the environment changes significantly. However, management expects elevated costs to persist, and supply chain normalization could take at least four to six months after the strait fully reopens.
The company raised its system-wide same-store sales growth range to 7.5%–8% for fiscal 2026. It also narrowed its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization outlook to between $550 million and $560 million, and adjusted earnings per share to between $1.70 and $1.75. The midpoint of guidance indicates an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin contraction of approximately 300–400 basis points in fiscal Q4 2026 due to product costs. Management expects price increases to help offset the costs, while continuing to deliver selling, general, and administrative expense savings.
Management said on the August 5, 2026 call that the Breeze business's overall performance is meeting or exceeding expectations, and that the transaction thesis and return expectations disclosed in the December update remain intact. Through fiscal Q3 2026, the company had converted 12 stores to the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand, and their initial performance was slightly above expectations. General and administrative expense savings achieved year to date were also ahead of plan, although management described their value as limited so far. The company also noted lower employee attrition during the conversion and the implementation of marketing and fleet sales initiatives before the rebranding was completed.
Same-store sales grew 8% in fiscal Q3 2026, with growth in both transactions and average ticket value. More than three-quarters of the growth came from ticket value, with net pricing as the largest contributor, alongside a shift toward higher-priced services and non-oil-change services. Transactions represented the remainder of the growth, confirming customer traffic growth, although its contribution was smaller than that of price. Management monitors demand elasticity, customer return rates, and discount usage because the core average ticket is approximately $115 or more at some franchisees.
Operating cash flow for fiscal 2026 year to date was approximately $285 million, up $105 million year over year. Free cash flow was $112 million, up approximately $93 million, and the company used part of it to repay debt in the June 2026 quarter. The net debt-to-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ratio declined by approximately 10% sequentially to 2.8 times. The company also repriced its term loan B and expects annual cash interest expense savings of approximately $1.8 million based on the outstanding balance.
