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Stocks
Ventas, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall41
Weak — below market medianMomentum TrapF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 41% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
15
166.6x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
79
21.5%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
17
3.4%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
42
5.0x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
52
2.12%2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
77
35.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
75
6▲3Top tier
VTR

VTR Ventas, Inc.

Ventas, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
89.98
▼ ⁦-0.51%⁩ (-0.46)
Market Cap$43.7B
Beta0.73
52w Low52w High
66.54101.60
Last Week
⁦-2.26%⁩
Last Month
⁦+3.47%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+6.67%⁩
Last Year
⁦+31.82%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$90
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$100
⁦+11%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$88–$110⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$39
⁦-57%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$39–$100⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$99.43
⁦+10.5%⁩
Current Price $89.98·Median $100.00
Low
$88.00
High
$110.00
Current price
$89.98
Average target
$99.43
Street summary

Slight Increase in Target with Stable Ratings

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 97.71 to 99.43, an increase of 1.72 or 1.76%, while the number of analysts remained at two. The consensus did not change over the last day or seven days. The range between 88 and 110 indicates clear divergence among the estimates, while the consensus remains above the current price of 89.36.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.96
Buy
Analyst coverage
23
Buy conviction
78%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
24%
Analyst ratings over time23 analysts rating
4
14
5
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.10 → 3.96
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Scotiabank
    Sector Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-31
    Barclays
    Mixed
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    166.63x
    5.03x40.26x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    109.57x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    23.51x
    3.68x29.40x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.4%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    21.5%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    25.6%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    -2.6%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    3.4%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.00x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.1%
    0.6%15.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    372.8%
    31.2%370.0%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.83
    -0.883.10
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Ventas, Inc. is a healthcare real estate investment company focused on senior housing, medical and research properties, and triple-net leased assets. The main growth driver is the senior housing operating portfolio, SHOP, where the company combines occupancy and rate growth with the Ventas OI asset management platform, while the outpatient medical and research portfolio, OM&R, and triple-net leases provide additional income sources. Management aims for SHOP to represent approximately 60% of a $60 billion enterprise by the end of fiscal year 2026, after directing most of its investments since the beginning of 2024 toward senior housing.

In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue according to EDGAR was approximately $1.7 billion, net income was $70.6 million, and GAAP earnings per share were $0.14, equivalent to a net income margin of approximately 4.2%. Normalized funds from operations were $0.97 per share, up 9% year over year, while company-wide same-store cash net operating income increased 10%. SHOP led the operating mix with same-store net operating income growth of 16%, compared with 5% for the OM&R portfolio and 3% for the triple-net portfolio.

Within SHOP, same-store revenue increased approximately 9% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, driven by a 300-basis-point increase in average occupancy and 5% RevPOR growth, while operating expenses increased 5%. As a result of operating leverage, the net operating income margin expanded 210 basis points to 31%, and the incremental revenue flow-through to margin reached 55%. The U.S. portfolio was the strongest driver, delivering 18% net operating income growth and a 360-basis-point year-over-year increase in occupancy.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 30, 2026, Ventas raised its normalized funds from operations guidance range for fiscal year 2026 to $3.85–$3.90 per share, representing year-over-year growth of between 8% and 10%, after reporting $0.97 per share in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 versus an estimate of $0.96.
  • The company raised its fiscal year 2026 investment guidance from $3 billion to $4.5 billion, after completing more than $3 billion of senior housing investments across 27 transactions since the beginning of fiscal year 2026. The average expected first-year yield on those investments was 6.6%, with targeted unlevered internal rates of return ranging from the low teens to the mid-teens.
  • SHOP same-store net operating income increased 16% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, with U.S. growth reaching 18% as occupancy improved 360 basis points. Ventas communities located within the top 99 markets according to NIC also outperformed the industry average by approximately 150 basis points in occupancy.
  • Current occupancy levels provide additional room for growth: occupancy in the U.S. senior housing portfolio was 87%, while occupancy in non-same-store assets was 83%. Same-store U.S. communities with occupancy of 90% or higher, representing approximately half of that portfolio, delivered 25% net operating income growth and 6% RevPOR growth.
  • Limited supply supports pricing and occupancy strength; management noted that only slightly more than 1,000 projects started during the quarter, compared with two million people reaching the age of eighty during 2026. It also estimated that prevailing rents needed to make development viable would have to rise by approximately 25%, limiting the prospect of a major construction wave in the near term.
  • Financing capacity improved in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, as net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization declined to 4.7 times, a year-over-year improvement of 90 basis points, and liquidity reached $4.9 billion. This flexibility supports the acquisition and refinancing program, although investment financing depends heavily on equity issuance.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +The SHOP model combines occupancy growth, pricing, and operating leverage; same-store revenue growth of approximately 9% versus expense growth of 5% expanded the net operating income margin to 31% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026.
  • +Ventas has a clear path for external growth, with investment guidance of $4.5 billion for fiscal year 2026 and more than $8 billion of investments since the beginning of 2024, adding more than 23,000 units across 174 communities to SHOP.
  • +Demand strength appears sustainable based on company data, as SHOP occupancy remains at 87% despite communities with occupancy of 90% or higher delivering 25% net operating income growth. Approximately 10% of SHOP communities being at or near full occupancy indicates the potential to convert demand into higher pricing and margins.
  • +The financial position improved alongside expansion; net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 4.7 times and liquidity was $4.9 billion at the end of quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, giving the company greater capacity to finance acquisitions and refinancing.
  • +Insider activity recorded a net buying signal during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 3, 2026, with one purchase, no sales, and a net 197,025 shares. This signal provides additional support, but it does not replace an assessment of operating and financing performance.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $98.85, within a wide range of $88 to $110, and the consensus rating is Buy; the average is below the 52-week range high of $101.6, while the highest target exceeds that high. A usable price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the provided data, so the valuation is based on expected normalized funds from operations growth of between 8% and 10% in fiscal year 2026 against equity financing, interest rate, and execution risks; the 52-week range of $66.38–$101.6 also reflects high sensitivity to occupancy and acquisition expectations.

BuyAnalyst target: $98.85(+9.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is the main driver of Ventas's growth in fiscal year 2026?

The main driver is the senior housing operating portfolio, SHOP, which delivered 16% same-store net operating income growth during quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. In the United States, growth reached 18% with a 360-basis-point year-over-year increase in occupancy. RevPOR also increased 5%, helping same-store revenue grow approximately 9% and expanding the net operating income margin to 31%.

Why did Ventas raise its fiscal year 2026 guidance?

On July 30, 2026, the company raised its normalized funds from operations guidance range to $3.85–$3.90 per share, compared with a previous midpoint that was $0.02 lower. Higher senior housing investments added $0.03 per share after accounting for increased capital recycling, while interest rates, the stronger dollar, and the share price effect deducted $0.01. The new range represents expected year-over-year growth of between 8% and 10%.

What is the size of Ventas's investment plan and what returns are targeted?

Ventas raised its fiscal year 2026 investment guidance from $3 billion to $4.5 billion, with a primary focus on senior housing. Since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, it has completed more than $3 billion across 27 transactions, with an average expected first-year yield of 6.6%. The transactions also targeted unlevered internal rates of return ranging from the low teens to the mid-teens, with an average cost of $358 thousand per unit.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Achieving SHOP net operating income growth guidance of 16% for fiscal year 2026 depends on the trajectory of the main selling season from May to September; management maintained its guidance without an increase despite the strength of quarter 2 because a significant portion of execution still remained. Any slowdown in resident move-ins or occupancy growth from the targeted level of approximately 300 basis points could pressure revenue and margins.
  • −Expansion through acquisitions is accelerating in a market experiencing increasing competition and year-over-year declines in capitalization rates, which could reduce returns or increase execution risk. Ventas is targeting $4.5 billion of investments in fiscal year 2026, while two-thirds of the $1 billion under contract at the time of the call was value-add in nature, requiring operational improvement to achieve its targeted returns.
  • −Financing for the investment program depends heavily on equity; the company has raised $4.2 billion of equity since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, including $1.6 billion that was unsettled at the end of quarter 2. Management expected this approach to continue, meaning total funds from operations growth may not fully translate into comparable per-share growth if the share count rises rapidly.
  • −The earnings outlook faces pressure from higher interest rates and a stronger dollar; these two factors, together with the effect of the higher share price on financing, reduced the improvement in normalized funds from operations guidance by $0.01 per share. The plan also includes dispositions and loan repayments totaling $700 million, including approximately $100 million of loans yielding 11%, removing high-yield income before the capital is redeployed.
  • −The research portfolio recorded a notable loss of occupancy due to several tenant non-renewals, with an annualized impact of $900 thousand. Management expects quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 performance to reflect the position of this portfolio for the remainder of fiscal year 2026, limiting its contribution to offsetting the dependence of growth on SHOP.
  • −Pricing constraints exist in parts of the Canadian portfolio; the Canada portfolio is 97% occupied, but Quebec imposes rent restrictions, with social barriers to raising rents in Quebec and Ontario. These constraints may limit Ventas's ability to replicate U.S. RevPOR growth in Canada despite high occupancy.
Does the SHOP portfolio still have room to increase occupancy?

Occupancy in the U.S. senior housing portfolio was 87%, while occupancy in non-same-store assets was 83% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. Same-store U.S. communities with occupancy of 90% or higher delivered 25% net operating income growth and 6% RevPOR growth. Approximately 10% of SHOP communities also operate at or near full occupancy, providing operational evidence of the potential to continue increasing occupancy and margins.

What is the difference between the reported earnings per share and funds from operations for quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026?

EDGAR data showed net income of $70.6 million and GAAP earnings per share of $0.14 in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. In contrast, Ventas reported normalized funds from operations of $0.97 per share, up 9% year over year and exceeding an estimate of $0.96. Management uses normalized funds from operations to measure the performance of the real estate investment trust, while earnings per share of $0.14 remains the accounting measure tied to net income.

What are the main risks that could disrupt VTR's growth in fiscal year 2026?

SHOP guidance is tied to the selling season from May to September and maintaining year-over-year occupancy growth of approximately 300 basis points, so weak move-ins could reduce operating leverage. The $4.5 billion investment plan is also being executed amid increasing competition and declining capitalization rates, with clear reliance on equity financing after raising $4.2 billion since the beginning of fiscal year 2026. In addition, interest rates and the stronger dollar pressured guidance, while the research portfolio recorded a negative annualized impact of $900 thousand due to several tenant non-renewals.