| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 58 | 25.0x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 45 | 3.8% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 84 | 12.7% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 41 | 3.5x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 34 | 0.61% | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 31 | -25.2% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 79 | 10 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Vistra Corp. generates electricity and sells it to customers through an integrated model combining a diversified generation fleet with retail and commercial hedging operations. The company earns profits from generating, pricing, and hedging power and from supplying retail customers, while seeking to increase the share of long-term contracted revenue through power agreements with major data center operators and new generation projects. It had approximately 7,000 employees, and the growth opportunities presented by management are concentrated in the ERCOT and PJM markets, where it expects annual load growth through 2030 of between 4% and 6% in ERCOT and between 2% and 3% in PJM.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue was $4.02 billion, versus FactSet estimates of $5.46 billion, while adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose by more than 30% to $1.767 billion, equivalent to approximately 44% of revenue. The generation segment contributed approximately $994 million of this EBITDA, compared with $593 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, while the retail segment contributed approximately $773 million versus $756 million. The improvement in generation came from an approximately 5% increase in average realized prices per megawatt-hour, higher capacity revenue in PJM, improved operation of gas assets, the return to service of Martin Lake Unit 1, and the contribution of Lotus assets.
The latest available regulatory figures from EDGAR for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 showed revenue of $5.6 billion, net income of $1 billion, and earnings per share of $2.87. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in fiscal 2026, revenue was $19.8 billion, net income was $2.2 billion, and earnings per share were approximately $6.56, compared with revenue of $17.7 billion and net income of $944 million in fiscal 2025. The second-quarter fiscal 2026 data do not include a specific net income figure, but indicate that net earnings fell short of expectations despite strong operating performance.
The average analyst price target is $219.42, which is very close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $219.82, while the target range extends from $169 to $298 and the consensus indicates “Buy.” This dispersion reflects wide differences in assessing the value of data center contracts and PJM growth versus weak ERCOT curves, while Wells Fargo's reduction of its target to $212 on August 10, 2026 highlights caution regarding 2027. The data do not include a usable price-to-earnings multiple, so the valuation assessment here is based on the target range and 52-week range rather than a published earnings multiple.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue was $4.02 billion, versus FactSet estimates of $5.46 billion, and was pressured by losses on derivative contracts. In contrast, adjusted EBITDA rose by more than 30% to $1.767 billion. Generation contributed approximately $994 million and retail approximately $773 million, but net earnings fell short of expectations. The results therefore showed clear operating strength alongside a significant revenue shortfall and weakness in net income.
The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA range of $6.8–$7.6 billion and its adjusted free cash flow before growth range of $3.925–$4.725 billion. Management expects to achieve a result at or above the midpoint of the fiscal 2026 range. The midpoint opportunity for adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027 remains within $7.4–$7.8 billion, but management said performance is trending toward the low end because of ERCOT weakness. The fiscal 2027 range does not include the contribution from Cogentrix or the premium from the nuclear power purchase agreements with Meta, and management estimated that adding them could increase the midpoint opportunity by approximately $700 million before any other effects.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Vistra is actively negotiating with major load customers in ERCOT and PJM and offers a combination of existing assets, new generation, and power and capacity agreements. The company established Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, NVIDIA, and Kuwait Investment Authority to provide a solution combining power, land, and digital infrastructure, and Vistra will be the preferred power partner. Vistra's commitment to the platform reaches $1 billion over time, with the portion exceeding $500 million contingent on achieving specified milestones. Its opportunities also include agreements with Meta and AWS and the Comanche Peak project targeted for operation at the end of 2027.
The generation segment produced approximately $994 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up from $593 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2025. The segment benefited from an approximately 5% increase in average realized prices per megawatt-hour, higher capacity revenue in PJM, improved operation of gas assets, and the contribution of Lotus assets. The retail segment generated approximately $773 million, compared with $756 million a year earlier. This integration reduces reliance on a single source of earnings, but does not eliminate the impact of movements in power prices and derivatives.
The immediate financial risk is weak second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue, which came in more than 25% below FactSet estimates, and the trend of the fiscal 2027 earnings opportunity toward the low end of the range. Weak ERCOT curves and regulatory reviews of data center projects in Texas also create pricing and timing uncertainty. The growth program requires the allocation of $4.5–$5 billion, including Cogentrix, Permian Peakers, Oak Hill 2, and Helix, increasing the importance of execution and capital discipline. Wells Fargo's reduction of its target to $212 on August 10, 2026 confirmed that some analysts have become more cautious about the 2027 outlook.
Vistra expects to generate more than $10 billion in available cash during 2026 and 2027. It allocated approximately $3 billion to share repurchases and common and preferred stock dividends, and approximately $4.5–$5 billion to growth investments. Since November 2021, the company has retired approximately 171 million shares at an average cost of approximately $38, with total repurchases exceeding $6.5 billion through August 3, 2026. Approximately $1.2 billion remained under the authorization, which the company expects to exhaust no later than the end of 2027, with an additional $2–$2.5 billion remaining available for allocation through the end of that year.
