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Varonis Systems, Inc.
VRNS

VRNS Varonis Systems, Inc.

Varonis Systems, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
47.56
▼ ⁦-0.52%⁩ (-0.25)
Market Cap$5.5B
Beta0.81
52w Low52w High
19.7063.90
Last Week
⁦+5.41%⁩
Last Month
⁦+10.17%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+43.95%⁩
Last Year
⁦-15.12%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall23
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketMomentum TrapF 4/9Grey zoneBetter than 23% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
19
—17.6xBottom tier
▸
Growth
74
15.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
40
-15.2%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
41
—2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
73
—2.15%Top tier
▸
Momentum
69
-23.0%▼2.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
81
15▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$48
Analyst target · 8 analysts
$51
⁦+7%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$37–$58⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$20
⁦-58%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$20–$51⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 8 analysts setting price target
$49.75
⁦+4.6%⁩
Current Price $47.56·Median $51.00
Low
$37.00
High
$58.00
Current price
$47.56
Average target
$49.75
Street summary

Minor Adjustment with Divergence in Analyst Confidence

The average price target over the last 30 days rose from 49 to 49.75, an increase of 0.75 or 1.53%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days and compared with the previous day. The number of analysts included also rose from 7 to 8, with no change in the average estimates over the past week. The current range is between 37 and 58, with a median of 51, reflecting a clear divergence among estimates compared with the current price of 47.56.

As of 2026-09-18
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.88
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦24 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
75%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
44%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
5
13
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.92 → 3.88
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-10
    Wedbush
    OutperformNeutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Needham
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    228.65x
    5.21x41.67x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    2.2%
    -57.1%10.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    15.6%
    -18.1%67.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -32.6%
    -155.6%189.9%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    77.1%
    13.2%79.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    -15.2%
    -63.6%26.8%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.30
    -9.8713.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Varonis Systems provides a data and AI security platform that helps organizations discover sensitive data, control access permissions, monitor behavior, and automatically remediate exposure across cloud environments, software-as-a-service applications, and data stores. The company is expanding through Atlas Complete, Atlas Interceptor, and database activity monitoring, alongside coverage for AWS, Azure, Databricks, Snowflake, Microsoft 365, Salesforce, and NVIDIA; its revenue comes primarily from software-as-a-service subscriptions, with smaller contributions from term subscription licenses and maintenance and services.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, total revenue increased 18% year over year to $180 million, comprising $171.7 million from software as a service, $4.2 million from term subscription licenses, and $4.1 million from maintenance and services; software as a service therefore represented approximately 95% of revenue. Adjusted gross profit was $139.9 million, with a gross margin of 77.7%, compared with 80.6% in Q2 fiscal 2025, while adjusted operating income was $3.7 million, with a margin of 2.1%, compared with an operating loss of $1.9 million and a negative margin of 1.2%.

Adjusted net income in Q2 fiscal 2026 was approximately $5.3 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared with $3.8 million and $0.03 per share in the comparable quarter. Software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue excluding conversions increased 25% to $598.1 million, while the total including conversions reached $726 million, with a renewal rate above 90% and new-customer annual recurring revenue growth of more than 20%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Varonis raised its fiscal 2026 guidance for software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue excluding conversions by $5 million to a range of $769–775 million, representing growth of 20%–21%, after Q2 fiscal 2026 results exceeded the high end of guidance and some delayed deals closed in July 2026, including a seven-figure deal.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • For fiscal 2026, the company expects revenue of $735–739 million, representing growth of 18%–19%, and total software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue of $819–850 million, representing growth of 28%–33%. It also raised its free cash flow guidance by $5 million to $105–110 million, reflecting management's confidence in the sales pipeline and the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • New-customer annual recurring revenue grew by more than 20% in Q2 fiscal 2026, alongside increasing adoption of Atlas, Interceptor, and database activity monitoring. Management said Atlas, which had been available for sale for approximately three and a half months at the time of the July 28, 2026 call, exceeded its initial expectations for its contribution during the quarter, and that a more significant contribution is expected in the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • The need to secure AI is supporting broader deals; a healthcare organization with more than 40,000 employees purchased Atlas Complete and coverage for AWS, Azure, Databricks, Snowflake, Microsoft 365, and NVIDIA environments to monitor more than 100 AI projects and remediate exposure of HIPAA data and personally identifiable information.
  • A financial services customer expanded its use of Varonis following a vendor consolidation review, adding Atlas Complete, Interceptor, database activity monitoring, and coverage for Salesforce and Microsoft 365. The company is also targeting a database activity monitoring market that management estimated at approximately $1 billion, where it seeks to replace Imperva and IBM Guardium products with its platform.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The growth model combines strong software-as-a-service expansion with new-customer growth; software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue excluding conversions grew 25% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and new-customer annual recurring revenue grew by more than 20%, with a renewal rate above 90%.
    • +The revenue mix has become largely subscription-based, with software as a service generating $171.7 million of the $180 million recorded in Q2 fiscal 2026. This enhances revenue visibility, while Atlas, Interceptor, and database activity monitoring expand the scope for upselling and consolidating customers' security tools.
    • +Adjusted operating profit improved from a loss of $1.9 million in Q2 fiscal 2025 to a profit of $3.7 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, while the margin rose from negative 1.2% to positive 2.1%. The company also raised its fiscal 2026 free cash flow guidance to $105–110 million despite acquisition costs and pressures from winding down the self-hosted platform.
    • +Liquidity provides considerable financial flexibility, as the company held $911.5 million in cash and cash equivalents, short-term deposits, and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026. These assets contributed approximately $7 million in financial income during Q2 fiscal 2026, alongside continued investment in expanding the platform.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Adjusted gross margin declined to 77.7% in Q2 fiscal 2026 from 80.6% in Q2 fiscal 2025, while the annual recurring revenue contribution margin fell to 13.3% from 16.5%. Management explained that this trajectory is consistent with its plan and is affected by investment in the transition to software as a service and the wind-down of the self-hosted platform, but it remains a tangible financial pressure until the transition is complete.
    • −The expected growth rate has slowed relative to the quarterly result; after revenue grew 18% and software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue excluding conversions grew 25% in Q2 fiscal 2026, the company expects Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 14%–16% and growth in the same recurring metric of 22%–23%. Fiscal 2026 guidance for this metric is also 20%–21%, placing a greater burden on converting the sales pipeline into completed deals.
    • −Free cash flow for the six months ended June 30, 2026 declined to $69.1 million from $82.7 million in the comparable period, while operating cash flow fell to $80.1 million from $89.3 million and capital expenditures increased to $9.4 million from $5.7 million. The results included $11.9 million in acquisition-related costs, but pressure from winding down the on-premises platform also affected cash generation.
    • −The conversion of the remaining customers from the non-cloud platform remains unresolved; $59.3 million of non-software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue remained at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026. Execution in the first half amounted to approximately 50% of expected conversions, placing the outcome at the low end of the $50–75 million estimate if the same pace continues, while reaching the midpoint would require converting approximately two-thirds of the available cases in the second half.
    • −Atlas and database activity monitoring face direct competition; one analyst noted that several vendors launched products overlapping with Atlas during the first half of fiscal 2026, while Varonis is seeking to replace Imperva and IBM Guardium products in database monitoring. Although management described the Atlas offering as comprehensive and integrated with the data layer, it did not provide a quantitative win rate demonstrating competitive superiority.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $49 and a wide range of $37 to $58; the average is approximately 23% below the 52-week range high of $63.9, while the highest target is close to that high. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available, making the valuation more dependent on sustaining annual recurring revenue growth above 20% and improving profitability, weighed against the risks of gross margin contraction, expected growth deceleration, and volatility within the 52-week range of $19.7 to $63.9.

    BuyAnalyst target: $49(+3.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove Varonis's growth in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Total revenue increased 18% to $180 million, while software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue excluding conversions grew 25% to $598.1 million. New-customer annual recurring revenue grew by more than 20%, alongside increased adoption of Atlas, Interceptor, and database activity monitoring. The software-as-a-service subscription renewal rate also exceeded 90%, combining new-customer expansion with retention of the subscription base.

    How does Varonis benefit from spending on AI security?

    The platform focuses on discovering sensitive data, reducing broad permissions, and monitoring how models and agents access enterprise data. In Q2 fiscal 2026, a healthcare organization with more than 40,000 employees purchased Varonis solutions to secure more than 100 AI projects and remediate exposure of HIPAA data and personally identifiable information. Management said on July 28, 2026 that customers are purchasing more platforms upfront and connecting them to more AI systems.

    How important are Atlas, Interceptor, and database activity monitoring to VRNS's growth?

    Atlas had been available for sale for approximately three and a half months at the time of the July 28, 2026 call, yet management said its contribution in Q2 fiscal 2026 exceeded its initial expectations. Interceptor targets upselling to the customer base in combination with MDDR, while database activity monitoring serves new and existing customers and targets a market that management estimated at approximately $1 billion. The company expects a more significant contribution from Atlas in the second half of fiscal 2026, but it did not provide a separate revenue figure for any of these products.

    What is Varonis's guidance for Q3 and fiscal 2026?

    For Q3 fiscal 2026, the company expects revenue of $185–188 million, representing growth of 14%–16%, and adjusted operating income of $2.5–3.5 million. For fiscal 2026, it expects revenue of $735–739 million, total software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue of $819–850 million, and free cash flow of $105–110 million. It also expects software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue excluding conversions of $769–775 million, representing growth of 20%–21%, after raising the range by $5 million.

    What are the main financial risks to monitor for VRNS?

    Adjusted gross margin declined from 80.6% in Q2 fiscal 2025 to 77.7% in Q2 fiscal 2026, while the annual recurring revenue contribution margin fell from 16.5% to 13.3%. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, free cash flow declined to $69.1 million from $82.7 million, including $11.9 million in acquisition-related costs. In addition, $59.3 million of non-software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue remained, keeping conversion execution and the wind-down of the self-hosted platform as factors affecting results.

    How do Varonis's liquidity and valuation look?

    Liquidity, short-term investments, and marketable securities totaled $911.5 million as of June 30, 2026 and generated approximately $7 million in financial income in Q2 fiscal 2026. The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $49 within a range of $37 to $58, compared with a 52-week range high of $63.9. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available, so the valuation rationale depends on the company's ability to achieve its fiscal 2026 guidance of 20%–21% growth in software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue excluding conversions and improve its margins as the transition progresses.

  • −Media speculation during the final week of Q2 fiscal 2026 led to delays in large deals and lengthened some approval cycles, according to management. The company closed some of these deals in July 2026, including a seven-figure deal, but the incident illustrates the sensitivity of quarterly results to the timing of large deals, particularly as the company shifts toward larger customers.