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Home
Stocks
Vulcan Materials Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall40
Weak — below market medianFalling StarF 9/9Better than 40% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
35
29.8x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
45
6.9%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
57
9.7%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
64
2.0x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
50
0.78%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
34
-3.4%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
43
15▲3Around median
VMC

VMC Vulcan Materials Company

Vulcan Materials Company · NYSE
Market Closed
252.74
▲ ⁦+0.85%⁩ (+2.14)
Market Cap$32.7B
Beta1.06
52w Low52w High
246.20331.09
Last Week
⁦-2.68%⁩
Last Month
⁦-11.42%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.41%⁩
Last Year
⁦-15.45%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$253
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$329
⁦+30%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$254–$349⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$113
⁦-55%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.1⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$113–$329⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$314.63
⁦+24.5%⁩
Current Price $252.74·Median $329.00
Low
$254.00
High
$349.00
Current price
$252.74
Average target
$314.63
Street summary

Slight Decline in VMC Target-Price Consensus Amid Widening Divergence

Bearish tilt

Vulcan Materials’ consensus target price remained at 314.63, unchanged over one day, but declined by $6.48 over 7 days and $9.92 over 30 days, down 2.02% and 3.06%, respectively, while the number of analysts remained at 7. Although the consensus and median, at 314.63 and 329, are above the current price of 252.74, the low estimate of 254 is very close to the price, compared with a high estimate of 349, reflecting wide divergence in expectations.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-3.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.71
Buy
Analyst coverage
24
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 2↓
Target dispersion
38%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
2
14
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.90 → 3.71
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-09
    Wells Fargo
    PositiveUnderweight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-09
    Citigroup
    BuyCautious
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Raymond James
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    29.84x
    4.94x39.51x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    25.47x
    3.70x29.59x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    16.03x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.3%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.9%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    18.1%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    27.5%
    7.6%58.9%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    9.7%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.01x
    0.22x3.72x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.2%5.5%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    23.1%
    4.7%147.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Vulcan Materials Company's business centers on the production and sale of aggregates, and management describes the company as a near-pure-play in this field. Performance depends on shipment volumes, mix-adjusted selling prices, and production and distribution efficiency; the company reinforced this focus during fiscal Q2 2026 by selling its California concrete operations and non-core operations in the U.S. Virgin Islands, then redirecting part of the capital to aggregates assets.

According to the latest EDGAR filings, the company recorded fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $1.8 billion, gross profit of $422.7 million, net income of $165.5 million, and earnings per share of $1.26. These figures equate to a gross margin of approximately 23.5% and a net income margin of approximately 9.2%. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in fiscal 2026, revenue totaled $8.1 billion, gross profit $2.2 billion, net income $1.1 billion, and earnings per share approximately $8.45.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Vulcan generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $654 million, roughly in line with the comparable period despite an approximately $40 million energy-related headwind. Aggregates shipments rose 1%, mix-adjusted selling prices improved 5%, and aggregates cash gross profit per ton exceeded $12, up $0.14 from the comparable period. Product prices increased in every segment, while aggregates remained the focus of the portfolio and acquisition strategy.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 29, 2026, management maintained its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization outlook of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, based on expected modest growth in aggregates shipments and a continued healthy pricing environment.
  • Mix-adjusted price improved 5% in fiscal Q2 2026, and management said midyear increases were implemented earlier than usual and were approximately twice the improvement in the comparable period, with pricing expected to reach the upper end of the 4% to 6% range near the end of fiscal 2026.
  • Public projects support demand; road awards over the last twelve months increased by more than 10% in Vulcan's markets, and public infrastructure awards rose 20%, while the increase reached 189% for roads in North Georgia and 360% for total infrastructure on the Gulf Coast.
  • The private-demand portfolio benefits from data centers, power grid expansions, liquefied natural gas projects, and manufacturing, and these opportunities have appeared in pricing and booking activity. However, management described power generation as a long-term driver whose potential impact extends over four to five years, not an immediate surge in shipments.
  • Vulcan paid approximately $75 million in fiscal Q2 2026 to acquire an aggregates operation from Brannan Sand & Gravel with annual capacity of approximately 1.0 to 1.5 million tons; about half of the production remains in South Denver, while the other half is directed to the Dallas-Fort Worth network. Net debt to adjusted earnings leverage was 1.7 times as of June 30, 2026, providing capacity to pursue the acquisition pipeline.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The aggregates business combined 1% shipment growth with a 5% improvement in mix-adjusted price in fiscal Q2 2026, lifting cash gross profit per ton to more than $12 despite energy inflation.
  • +Road and infrastructure projects provide multiyear demand visibility, particularly with public awards growing 20% in Vulcan's markets and 60% of IIJA funds, according to management's comments, remaining available for spending during the transition between funding programs.
  • +Management demonstrated cost discipline; aggregates shipment-adjusted cash cost of sales, excluding diesel, increased only 3%, and selling, administrative, and general expenses declined 2% in the first half. It also expects fiscal 2026 expenses to be approximately $10 million to $15 million below its initial range of $580 million to $590 million.
  • +The financial position supports the capital-allocation strategy; the company invested $370 million in maintenance and growth projects during the first half of fiscal 2026 and returned more than $500 million to shareholders, including $400 million in share repurchases, with leverage of 1.7 times.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

Analyst consensus rates VMC shares a "Buy," with an average price target of $321.11 and a wide target range of $283 to $349. The average target is approximately 3% below the 52-week range high of $331.09, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 5% and the lowest target remains within the 52-week range of $252.35 to $331.09; this optimism should be balanced against expected energy pressure, continued housing weakness, and the anticipated decline in gross margin in fiscal Q3 2026.

BuyAnalyst target: $321.11(+27.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Vulcan's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

The company generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $654 million in fiscal Q2 2026, roughly in line with the comparable period. Aggregates shipments rose 1% and mix-adjusted price improved 5%, lifting cash gross profit per ton to more than $12. This was achieved despite an approximately $40 million energy-related headwind, including $26 million associated with diesel.

What is Vulcan's outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

On July 29, 2026, management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion. It expects modest growth in aggregates shipments, with pricing near the end of the year reaching the upper end of the 4% to 6% range. It also maintained its capital expenditure estimate of $750 million to $800 million and expected gross margin to improve in Q4 after likely pressure in fiscal Q3 2026.

How do infrastructure and data centers support demand for Vulcan's aggregates?

Road awards over the last twelve months increased by more than 10% in Vulcan's markets, and public infrastructure awards rose 20%. In specific regions, road awards in North Georgia increased 189%, and total infrastructure awards on the Gulf Coast rose 360%. On the private side, data centers and power, liquefied natural gas, and manufacturing projects support pricing and booking activity, but management expects the impact of power projects to emerge gradually over four to five years.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Fiscal Q2 2026 profitability faced an approximately $40 million energy headwind, including a $26 million negative impact from diesel. Management expects energy inflation to continue in the second half, with diesel prices remaining near fiscal Q2 2026 levels.
  • −Single-family housing construction remains weak because of affordability constraints, and management links the recovery of parts of light nonresidential construction to a housing recovery. It also described warehouse activity as broadly stable without widespread improvement, depriving the company of two potential volume-growth drivers.
  • −Despite higher prices, management said costs exceeded pricing by approximately 200 basis points in fiscal Q2 2026. It expects gross margin to remain lower year over year in fiscal Q3 2026, with most of the anticipated improvement coming in fiscal Q4 2026.
  • −Weather conditions remain a volatile factor in shipments and costs; wet weather reduced volumes below expectations in multiple regions during fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in Texas and parts of the Southeast. Management also noted that fiscal Q4 2026 weather could affect achieving the targeted shipment pace.
  • −All three arbitration panel members found that Mexico's actions violated NAFTA, but the majority opinion awarded Vulcan damages that management described on July 29, 2026, as immaterial. This limits the direct financial benefit of the decision, despite the company retaining the land and the land surrounding the port and continuing to serve the Gulf Coast since the seizure of Calica in 2022.
  • −Insider activity registered a strong selling signal during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 21, 2026, with six sales, no purchases, and net sales of $5.1 million. This remains a weaker trading signal than the operational risks because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data proves otherwise.
Why is the Brannan Sand & Gravel acquisition important for VMC shares?

Vulcan completed the acquisition in early June 2026 as part of a $75 million investment in a strategic aggregates operation during the first half of fiscal 2026. The operation produces approximately 1.0 to 1.5 million tons annually, with roughly half of production remaining in the South Denver market while the other half moves to Dallas-Fort Worth. The asset expands the company's presence in southern Colorado and complements its existing distribution network near Fort Worth and Weatherford.

What does the arbitration ruling against Mexico mean for Vulcan?

On July 29, 2026, management said all three arbitration panel members found that Mexico's actions were arbitrary and unfair and violated NAFTA on multiple points. However, the majority opinion awarded damages that the company described as immaterial, while the third member dissented on the amount of damages. Vulcan says it has continued supplying the Gulf Coast since the seizure of Calica in 2022 and that its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew by more than 50% over the following four years.

What are the main risks to monitor for VMC?

The nearest-term operational risk is continued energy inflation following an approximately $40 million impact in fiscal Q2 2026, with diesel pressure expected to persist in the second half. Single-family housing construction remains weak, while warehouse activity has remained broadly stable, and wet weather can delay shipments and increase unit costs. Management expected gross margin to decline year over year in fiscal Q3 2026 before an improvement led by Q4 results.