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Home
Stocks
Valero Energy Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall98
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9SafeBetter than 98% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
16.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
53
6.3%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
94
21.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
83
0.5x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
44
1.18%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
100
100.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
62
11▲3Around median
VLO

VLO Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
390.42
▲ ⁦+1.29%⁩ (+4.99)
Market Cap$111.0B
Beta0.57
52w Low52w High
153.60399.26
Last Week
⁦+6.65%⁩
Last Month
⁦+20.53%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+51.33%⁩
Last Year
⁦+141.25%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$390
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$345
⁦-12%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$203–$450⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$670
⁦+71%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$345–$670⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$340.20
⁦-12.9%⁩
Current Price $390.42·Median $345.00
Low
$203.00
High
$450.00
Current price
$390.42
Average target
$340.20
Street summary

Expectations Rise While Dispersion Remains High

The average target price rose to 340.2, increasing by 9.5 or 2.87% over the last 7 days, and by 30 or 9.67% over the last 30 days, while the number of analysts remained at 6. The average did not change over the last day. Despite this improvement, the consensus target price remains below the current price of 385.43, while the range spans 203 to 450, reflecting wide variation in estimates.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+9.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.55
Buy
Analyst coverage
20
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
63%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time20 analysts rating
3
7
8
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.90 → 3.55
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.25x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.56x
    3.36x26.89x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.95x
    2.12x16.98x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    9.0%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.3%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    861.2%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    21.2%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.45x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.2%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    19.5%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.75
    -1.814.34
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Valero Energy Corporation operates through three main segments: refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol. Its earnings capacity depends primarily on operating refineries and selling transportation fuels, with additional contributions from renewable diesel and ethanol sales; in Q2 FY2026, refinery throughput averaged 3.0 million barrels per day, renewable diesel sales were 3.8 million gallons per day, and ethanol production was 4.7 million gallons per day.

According to the provided financial statements, Valero recorded revenue of $36.6 billion and gross profit of $7.1 billion in Q2 FY2026, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 19.4%. Net income attributable to Valero stockholders was approximately $3.7 billion, or $12.62 per share, compared with $714 million and $2.28 per share in Q2 FY2025, resulting in a calculated net margin of approximately 10.1%.

Refining remained the largest earnings driver, generating operating income of $4.5 billion in Q2 FY2026, compared with $717 million for renewable diesel and $318 million for ethanol. On a trailing-12-month basis in 2026, the data show revenue of $131.6 billion, net income of $7.2 billion, and earnings per share of $24.03, compared with revenue of $122.7 billion and net income of $2.3 billion in FY2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Refining segment operating income jumped to $4.5 billion in Q2 FY2026 from $1.3 billion in the comparable quarter, with refinery throughput of 3.0 million barrels per day and cash operating costs of $4.70 per barrel.
  • The renewable diesel segment shifted from an operating loss of $79 million in Q2 FY2025 to operating income of $717 million in Q2 FY2026, supported by the value of D4 RIN credits rising faster than feedstock prices.
  • Ethanol segment operating income increased to $318 million in Q2 FY2026 from $54 million a year earlier, and management said the production tax credit had amounted to $0.14 per gallon since the beginning of 2026 and could reach $0.17 per gallon for full-year 2026.
  • Valero is targeting completion of the FCC unit optimization project at the St. Charles refinery during Q3 FY2026; the investment is valued at $230 million and aims to increase production of higher-value products, including alkylate and finished gasoline.
  • Operations generated $5.6 billion in cash in Q2 FY2026, and the company returned $2.6 billion to stockholders at a 59% payout ratio. It also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share on July 16, 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The flexibility of Valero's refining system provides an advantage in crude selection; management said its ability to process large volumes of heavy sour Venezuelan crude is a competitive advantage and that processing rates during the months following the July 30, 2026 call could exceed their historical highs.
  • +Product scarcity supports the margin environment, as management estimated that approximately 5 million barrels per day of global refining capacity was offline and that global light-product inventories had fallen by approximately 150 million barrels since the beginning of 2026 and were approximately 130 million barrels below their typical level for that time of year.
  • +The balance sheet is relatively strong; as of June 30, 2026, the company had $7.9 billion in cash versus $9.1 billion in debt, and its debt-to-capital ratio, net of cash, was 11%, with an additional $5.3 billion of available liquidity.
  • +There are defined growth paths within existing assets, including the $230 million St. Charles project and ethanol debottlenecking projects with expected additional capacity of between 100 million and 200 million gallons annually during the one or two years following the July 30, 2026 call.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of $310.2, a high of $357, and a low of $203; the average is approximately 12% below the 52-week range high of $353, while the breadth of the targets reveals significant disagreement over the sustainability of refining margins. Coverage of the July 31, 2026 results cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 times, but this multiple is based on elevated cyclical earnings that benefited from supply shortages and disruptions to global refining capacity, and therefore could effectively rise if normalized earnings decline. The 52-week range is between $146.76 and $353, highlighting the extent of the revaluation that accompanied the jump in Q2 FY2026 net income to $3.7 billion.

BuyAnalyst target: $310.2(-20.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove VLO's earnings in Q2 FY2026?

Net income attributable to Valero stockholders was approximately $3.7 billion, or $12.62 per share, in Q2 FY2026, compared with $714 million and $2.28 per share a year earlier. Refining operating income increased to $4.5 billion from $1.3 billion, while renewable diesel generated $717 million and ethanol generated $318 million. Management attributed the strength to operational and commercial performance, refining margins, lower global product inventories, and expanded opportunities to purchase appropriately discounted crude feedstocks.

Does Valero depend solely on refining?

No, but refining remained the dominant business in Q2 FY2026, with operating income of $4.5 billion and average throughput of 3.0 million barrels per day. The Renewable Diesel segment recorded operating income of $717 million and sales of 3.8 million gallons per day. The Ethanol segment also generated operating income of $318 million and production of 4.7 million gallons per day.

What is Valero's guidance for Q3 FY2026?

The company expects refining throughput of between 1.78 million and 1.83 million barrels per day on the Gulf Coast, between 460 thousand and 480 thousand barrels in the Mid-Continent region, between 110 thousand and 120 thousand on the West Coast, and between 450 thousand and 470 thousand in the North Atlantic region. It expects refining cash operating costs of $4.75 per barrel and renewable diesel sales of 3.5 million gallons per day. It also expects ethanol production of 4.8 million gallons per day, net interest expense of approximately $140 million, and depreciation and amortization of $700 million.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Earnings depend heavily on the refining margin cycle; refining operating income of $4.5 billion represented approximately 81% of the total reported operating income of the three segments in Q2 FY2026, so an easing of supply shortages or the return of offline capacity could place significant pressure on profitability.
  • −The strength of results is linked to geopolitical disruptions and volatile crude supplies; management noted that 1.7–1.9 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity was offline and that reliance on Venezuelan crude was increasing, while Mexican exports remained low due to higher operating rates at the Dos Bocas refinery.
  • −Renewable fuel policies involve direct risks, as management warned of the possibility that the inventory of RIN credits could be depleted and of uncertainty about what happens if the compliance system becomes unenforceable. EPA decisions, exemptions, and tariffs could also affect credit prices, feedstock costs, and renewable diesel margins.
  • −Q3 FY2026 guidance includes some operational decline in renewable diesel and higher refining costs; the company expects renewable diesel sales of 3.5 million gallons per day versus 3.8 million in Q2, and refining cash operating costs of $4.75 per barrel versus $4.70.
  • −Valero raised its estimate of capital expenditures attributable to it in 2026 to approximately $2 billion, of which $1.7 billion is for sustaining the business. This includes repairs to the DHT unit at the Port Arthur refinery at an estimated cost of $250 million; the company expects insurance to cover a significant portion, but the amount of reimbursement is unspecified.
  • −Analyst targets range from $203 to $357, a wide dispersion reflecting valuation sensitivity to margin assumptions, while insider transactions showed net selling of $3.8 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 29, 2026; this is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged.
How does Valero distribute cash to stockholders?

Cash returns to stockholders totaled $2.6 billion in Q2 FY2026, equivalent to a 59% payout ratio. On July 16, 2026, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.20 per share. As of June 30, 2026, cash totaled $7.9 billion, exceeding the long-term target cash range of $4–5 billion, with management emphasizing that dividends and share repurchases are subject to capital allocation discipline.

Why is Venezuelan crude important to VLO stock?

Valero said on the July 30, 2026 call that it had been the largest U.S. consumer of Venezuelan crude during the years preceding the call. Its assets can process large volumes of heavy sour crude, which management described as a competitive advantage. The company shifted to larger volumes of it when Canadian crude prices rose due to weather and flooding in June 2026, but it continues to compare its cost with alternatives such as heavy Canadian crude.

What are Valero's key projects and capital expenditures in 2026?

Valero expects capital expenditures attributable to it of approximately $2 billion in 2026, including approximately $1.7 billion for sustaining the business and the remainder for growth. This includes repairs to the DHT unit at the Port Arthur refinery at an estimated cost of $250 million, with a targeted return to service by the end of 2026 and insurance expected to cover a significant portion of the cost. It is also targeting completion of the $230 million FCC unit optimization project at the St. Charles refinery during Q3 FY2026 to increase production of alkylate and finished gasoline.