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Vericel Corporation
VCEL

VCEL Vericel Corporation

Vericel Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Open
39.63
▼ ⁦-0.97%⁩ (-0.39)
Market Cap$2.0B
Beta1.07
52w Low52w High
28.9548.75
Last Week
⁦+3.36%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.46%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+14.08%⁩
Last Year
⁦+14.54%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall78
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 7/9SafeBetter than 78% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
13
83.4x▼17.6xBottom tier
▸
Growth
92
23.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
77
3.6%▼4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
87
0.7x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
24
—2.15%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
68
27.9%▲2.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
43
6▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$40
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$60
⁦+50%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$54–$70⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$23
⁦-43%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.1⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$23–$60⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$61.33
⁦+54.8%⁩
Current Price $39.63·Median $60.00
Low
$54.00
High
$70.00
Current price
$39.63
Average target
$61.33
Street summary

VCEL Price Target Consensus Raised

Bullish tilt

Vericel’s price target consensus rose to 61.33 from 57.50 over one day, seven days, and 30 days, an increase of 3.83 or 6.66%, with no change in the number of analysts, which remains at three. The current range is between 54 and 70, with a median of 60, indicating a more optimistic outlook but noticeable dispersion among estimates.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.88
Buy
Analyst coverage
8
Buy conviction
88%
High
Target dispersion
40%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.88 → 3.88
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    H.C. Wainwright
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-08
    H.C. Wainwright
    Buy· $70.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    83.38x
    3.68x44.95x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    58.56x
    4.70x37.61x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    67.70x
    3.78x30.25x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.0%
    -145.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    23.0%
    -57.4%93.8%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    242.9%
    -159.3%129.8%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    74.6%
    12.8%90.7%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    3.6%
    -154.2%16.1%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.73x
    0.59x5.12x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    9.43
    -36.5017.81
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-07 data

Company Overview

Vericel Corporation is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on advanced therapies in sports medicine and burn care. Its business is built on MACI for treating knee cartilage defects and a burn care franchise comprising Epicel and NexoBrid; in Q1 FY2026, MACI generated revenue of $56.4 million, while burn care generated $12.0 million, including $10.9 million from Epicel and $1.1 million from NexoBrid.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $77.5 million and gross profit was $56.4 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 72.8%, while net income was $2.2 million and earnings per share were $0.04. This represents an improvement in net income compared with a loss of $6.3 million and negative earnings per share of $0.12 in Q1 FY2026, when revenue was $68.4 million and gross profit was $49.3 million.

Revenue for the trailing twelve-month period in 2026 was approximately $306.3 million, with gross profit of $228.4 million, net income of $24.2 million, and earnings per share of approximately $0.46. By comparison, FY2025 recorded revenue of $276.3 million, gross profit of $205.6 million, and net income of $16.5 million, demonstrating that sales growth is translating into a meaningful improvement in profitability.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Vericel raised its FY2026 revenue guidance by $10 million to a range of $326–336 million, equivalent to growth of approximately 20% at the midpoint, after Q1 FY2026 results exceeded expectations and revenue from BARDA purchases of NexoBrid was included.
  • MACI grew 22% in Q1 FY2026 to $56.4 million, recording its fourth consecutive quarter of at least 20% growth, while its trailing four-quarter revenue growth rate increased to 23%; accordingly, the company raised its FY2026 MACI guidance to $282–288 million.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The expansion of the MACI sales team and territory realignment contributed to record Q1 FY2026 levels for biopsies, implants, and surgeon counts, with double-digit growth in biopsies and implants and implant growth accelerating in both new and established territories as the quarter progressed.
  • The company trained more than 1,000 surgeons on MACI Arthro during FY2025, and those surgeons were already responsible for more than half of MACI implants. The small femoral condyle defect category also showed growth in biopsies and biopsy-to-implant conversion rates above those of the overall MACI business among surgeons who performed MACI Arthro procedures.
  • Vericel secured a BARDA contract worth up to $197 million to support NexoBrid purchases and development, including a funded base portion of $35 million and approximately $10 million in purchases over 12 months. Management expected to recognize $5–6 million in purchase revenue in the second half of FY2026, beginning in Q3 FY2026.
  • Burn care revenue increased by more than 90% in Q1 FY2026 to $12.0 million, driven by Epicel revenue of $10.9 million and improved conversion of biopsies into therapeutic grafts, while NexoBrid revenue grew approximately 60% from the previous quarter to $1.1 million.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Vericel's model combines rapid growth with improving profitability; Q1 FY2026 revenue increased 30%, gross margin expanded by more than 300 basis points to 72%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 195% to $9.6 million.
    • +MACI has supportive operating demand indicators, including double-digit growth in biopsies and implants, accelerating biopsies per surgeon, and improved conversion of biopsies into implants in smaller territories following the sales team expansion; these indicators are important because biopsies typically convert into implants in subsequent quarters.
    • +MACI Arthro supports expanded use in cartilage defects measuring from 2 to 4 square centimeters, while preliminary case data accepted for publication indicate reduced postoperative pain, improved range of motion, and faster progression to full weight-bearing.
    • +The company strengthened its financial position by generating $16.4 million in operating cash flow and $15.1 million in free cash flow in Q1 FY2026, ending the period with approximately $211 million in cash and investments following completion of the new manufacturing facility.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The revenue mix depends heavily on MACI; the product contributed approximately $56.4 million of total revenue of $68.4 million in Q1 FY2026, or nearly 82%, making Vericel's results sensitive to any slowdown in biopsies, implants, or access to surgeons treating knee cartilage injuries.
    • −MACI faces competition from Agili-C, microfracture augmentation products, and synthetic implants in the cartilage repair market. Management believes Agili-C targets older patients with osteoarthritis and has limited overlap with MACI patients, but it remains a competing product that may benefit from more favorable reimbursement conditions beginning in Q1 FY2027.
    • −The FY2026 plan includes investment-related pressure on margins from costs associated with the new Burlington facility, expansion of the MACI sales team, the MACI ankle trial, and product lifecycle management investments; accordingly, the company expected a gross margin of approximately 72% and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin of approximately 18% in Q2 FY2026, compared with full-year targets of approximately 75% and 27%, respectively.
    • −The full $197 million value of the BARDA contract does not represent guaranteed revenue; the base portion is only $35 million, while additional purchases and development are subject to future options and work results that include proof of concept for using NexoBrid in blast injuries and development of a room-temperature formulation.
    • −MACI's international expansion requires regulatory approvals that have not yet been obtained; the company was planning to submit a marketing application in the United Kingdom during FY2026, and a potential launch in 2027 would only become possible if the application is approved.
    • −Insider activity showed two sales and no purchases during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 26, 2026, for net sales of 234,166.8 according to the provided data. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged and are insufficient without additional context to infer a change in fundamentals.

    Valuation

    The analysts' average price target is $57.5, within a wide range of $46 to $70, with a consensus "Buy" recommendation; the average is approximately 16.6% above the 52-week range high of $49.32. Conversely, no displayed price-to-earnings ratio is available despite trailing twelve-month earnings per share in 2026 of approximately $0.46, while the lowest target of $46 falls within the 52-week range of $28.95–49.32, reflecting meaningful variation in analysts' estimates of the value of growth.

    BuyAnalyst target: $57.5(+45.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is the main revenue driver for Vericel in FY2026?

    MACI is the largest driver, generating $56.4 million of total revenue of $68.4 million in Q1 FY2026. The product grew 22% year over year, and its trailing four-quarter growth rate reached 23%. Management raised its FY2026 MACI revenue guidance to a range of $282–288 million following double-digit growth in biopsies and implants.

    Why is MACI Arthro important to Vericel's growth?

    MACI Arthro aims to expand the use of MACI in smaller femoral condyle defects, particularly those measuring between 2 and 4 square centimeters. Vericel trained more than 1,000 surgeons during FY2025, and trained surgeons were responsible for more than half of MACI implants. Preliminary case data accepted for publication showed reduced postoperative pain, improved range of motion, and faster progression to full weight-bearing, while prospective data collection continues through the MACI clinical outcomes registry.

    How does the BARDA contract affect NexoBrid's outlook?

    The contract has a maximum value of $197 million, while the base portion is $35 million and includes approximately $10 million in NexoBrid purchases over 12 months. Management expected to recognize $5–6 million in purchase revenue in the second half of FY2026, beginning in Q3 FY2026, with the remainder recognized in early 2027. Other elements include vendor-managed inventory services and preliminary work for potential use in blast injuries, while additional awards remain optional.

    Has Vericel's profitability improved in the latest financial data?

    In Q2 FY2026, the company recorded net income of $2.2 million and earnings per share of $0.04, compared with a net loss of $6.3 million and negative earnings per share of $0.12 in Q1 FY2026. Gross margin in Q2 FY2026 was approximately 72.8%, based on gross profit of $56.4 million and revenue of $77.5 million. On a trailing twelve-month basis in 2026, net income reached $24.2 million on revenue of $306.3 million.

    What are the main risks of reliance on MACI?

    MACI accounted for nearly 82% of Vericel's revenue in Q1 FY2026, so any weakness in biopsies or their conversion into implants could clearly affect overall results. The product also competes with Agili-C and microfracture augmentation products, despite management's assertion that the target patient categories differ and that Agili-C is not intended for patellar defects. In addition, the company is spending on expanding the sales team, the MACI ankle trial, and the Burlington facility, adding costs before these investments generate their full return.

    What supports MACI's international expansion?

    Vericel's new facility received FDA approval for the commercial manufacturing of MACI, and manufacturing there began during Q2 FY2026. The facility increases the capacity needed for growth within the United States and enables potential commercialization outside it. The company was planning to submit a marketing application in the United Kingdom during FY2026, with a potential launch in 2027 subject to obtaining regulatory approval.