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Stocks
US Foods Holding Corp.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall70
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 7/9SafeBetter than 70% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
57
29.2x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
51
2.6%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
59
10.5%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
59
2.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
62
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
70
38.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
47
9▲3Around median
USFD

USFD US Foods Holding Corp.

US Foods Holding Corp. · NYSE
Market Closed
95.34
▼ ⁦-0.75%⁩ (-0.72)
Market Cap$21.2B
Beta0.82
52w Low52w High
69.88111.42
Last Week
⁦-9.02%⁩
Last Month
⁦-12.44%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+17.49%⁩
Last Year
⁦+22.61%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$95
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$120
⁦+26%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$107–$127⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$66
⁦-31%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.0⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$66–$120⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$117.00
⁦+22.7%⁩
Current Price $95.34·Median $120.00
Low
$107.00
High
$127.00
Current price
$95.34
Average target
$117.00
Street summary

US Foods (USFD) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

US Foods stock has seen a notable positive revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising from 107.11 to 117 dollars, an increase of 9.23%. This adjustment reflects growing optimism among the seven analysts, especially with the current price (107.52) remaining at the lower end of the target range (107), indicating a potential growth gap toward the median price of 120 dollars.

As of 2026-08-19
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.69
Buy
Analyst coverage
16
Buy conviction
75%
High
Target dispersion
21%
Analyst ratings over time16 analysts rating
12
3
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.81 → 3.69
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    29.25x
    4.61x36.85x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    18.42x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.09x
    2.86x22.90x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.6%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    2.6%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    35.8%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    17.6%
    9.2%67.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    10.5%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.95x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.67
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

US Foods Holding Corp. operates as a national foodservice distributor within the United States, focusing its resources on independent restaurants, healthcare, and hospitality. The company generates revenue by distributing food products and serving customers through an extensive network, supported by digital tools and services such as Pronto, which enables smaller orders, later cutoff times, and more frequent deliveries. Healthcare and hospitality together represent more than 25% of sales, while private-label penetration among independent restaurant customers reached approximately 53% in Q2 fiscal 2026.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, net sales rose 4.5% to $10.5 billion, driven by 1.9% growth in total case volume and a 2.6% food cost inflation and mix impact. Gross profit according to EDGAR filings was approximately $1.9 billion, representing a gross margin of about 18.1%, while net income was $275 million, with a net margin of approximately 2.6% and GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.24. By customer type, independent restaurant cases increased 5.1%, healthcare 3.5%, and hospitality 4.4%, while chain restaurant cases declined 1.5%.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, the company reported record adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $604 million, up 10.2%, with a record margin of 5.7% following an expansion of 29 basis points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 21% to $1.44, while adjusted gross profit per case grew 5%, compared with a 3.7% increase in adjusted operating expenses per case. On a trailing twelve-month basis, revenue was $39.7 billion and net income was $677 million, compared with revenue of $39.4 billion and net income of $676 million in fiscal 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Independent restaurant case growth accelerated to 5.1% in Q2 fiscal 2026, the strongest rate since Q4 fiscal 2023, and the company recorded its fifth consecutive quarter of acceleration and its twenty-first consecutive quarter of share gains in this category.
  • Management expects Pronto sales to rise from $1 billion in fiscal 2025 to approximately $1.3 billion in fiscal 2026, then to more than $1.7 billion in fiscal 2027, exceeding its previous estimate of $1.5 billion. The service was operating in 52 markets, while Pronto Next Day was operating in 35 markets, with a plan to add eight more markets during fiscal 2026.
  • The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance for net sales growth of between 4% and 6%, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth of between 9% and 13%, and adjusted earnings per share growth of between 18% and 24%. The guidance assumes total case volume growth of between 2.5% and 4.5%, with an approximately 1% contribution from the fifty-third week to case growth and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth.
  • Cost-reduction initiatives support margin expansion; strategic vendor management delivered more than $50 million in cost-of-goods savings in the first half of fiscal 2026, and the company is targeting more than $300 million over the plan extending through fiscal 2027. Indirect spending also generated more than $20 million in additional savings year to date, with a target exceeding $75 million in fiscal 2026 and more than $100 million in fiscal 2027.
  • The AI-powered Visit Assistant tool delivered more than 700 thousand actionable insights to sales representatives during the first six weeks of its use with independent restaurant accounts. The company is also testing a generative sales assistant and inventory-scanning robots, with a plan to expand robot testing from one warehouse to six additional locations by the end of fiscal 2026.
  • Operating cash flow reached $725 million year to date in fiscal 2026, and the company repurchased $374 million of shares during Q2 and approximately $500 million year to date. It ended the quarter with net leverage of 2.6 times, within the target range of two to three times, with no long-term debt maturities before 2028.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Operating performance combines volume growth and margin expansion; sales increased 4.5%, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew 10.2%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 21% in Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • +Share gains demonstrate clear consistency, as US Foods recorded its twenty-first consecutive quarter of share gains in independent restaurants and its twenty-third consecutive quarter in healthcare, alongside the strongest net new account generation in three years.
  • +Pronto provides a numerically defined growth path, with sales expected to rise to approximately $1.3 billion in fiscal 2026 and more than $1.7 billion in fiscal 2027, while management confirmed that the growth does not depend solely on shifting traditional business volumes to smaller deliveries.
  • +Operating savings strengthen earnings quality; adjusted gross profit per case grew 130 basis points faster than adjusted operating expenses per case in Q2 fiscal 2026, and management is targeting continued growth in gross profit dollars approximately 100 to 150 basis points faster than operating expenses.
  • +Operating cash flow of $725 million year to date in fiscal 2026 supports investment, growth, and share repurchases, while net leverage of 2.6 times preserves balance-sheet flexibility within the target range.

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates USFD shares a “Buy,” with an average price target of $117 and a range of $107 to $127. The average target is approximately 5% above the 52-week range high of $111.42, while the upper target is approximately 14% above that high, but the $20 spread in targets reflects differing views on the persistence of growth and margin expansion. No specific price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data, so the valuation assessment is based on the target range, the 52-week range, and the company's ability to achieve its fiscal 2026 guidance.

BuyAnalyst target: $117(+22.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove US Foods' results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Net sales rose 4.5% to $10.5 billion, supported by 1.9% growth in total case volume and a 2.6% food cost inflation and mix impact. Independent restaurant cases increased 5.1%, healthcare 3.5%, and hospitality 4.4%, compared with a 1.5% decline in chain restaurant cases. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $604 million, up 10.2%, while its margin expanded 29 basis points to 5.7%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share also rose 21% to $1.44, while earnings per share according to EDGAR filings amounted to $1.24.

How important is Pronto to USFD's growth?

Pronto allows customers to order smaller quantities and benefit from later cutoff times and more frequent deliveries, helping US Foods compete with local and specialty distributors. The service was operating in 52 markets, and Pronto Next Day was operating in 35 markets, with a plan to add eight markets during fiscal 2026. After generating $1 billion in sales in fiscal 2025, management expects approximately $1.3 billion in fiscal 2026. The company raised its fiscal 2027 sales estimate from $1.5 billion to more than $1.7 billion.

What is US Foods' guidance for fiscal 2026?

Management reaffirmed its expectation for net sales growth of between 4% and 6% in fiscal 2026. It also expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth of between 9% and 13%, and adjusted earnings per share growth of between 18% and 24%. This is based on expected total case volume growth of between 2.5% and 4.5%. The guidance includes an approximately 1% impact from the fifty-third week on case growth and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Restaurant traffic remains under pressure, as reflected in continued weakness in the number of cases per item among customers despite an improvement in the number of items per customer, while chain restaurant case volume declined 1.5% in Q2 fiscal 2026. This makes part of US Foods' growth dependent on winning new accounts and market share to offset weak underlying demand in the sector.
  • −Management expects gross profit per case growth to slow in Q3 fiscal 2026 compared with the previous strong rates, although it still expects meaningful growth. Elevated selling costs will also persist for two additional quarters because of proactive hiring and the transition of the sales representative compensation plan, which may limit the pace of near-term operating leverage.
  • −Earnings remain exposed to fuel volatility and operating cost inflation; fuel represented approximately one-third of the annual increase in adjusted operating expenses during Q2 fiscal 2026, while management placed expected cost inflation within a range of 3% to 5%. The fuel surcharge recovery rate was approximately 70% in the quarter, better than the usual rate of 30% to 40%, but it does not eliminate exposure if prices change or the ability to pass through surcharges declines.
  • −The Pronto plan involves execution risks because smaller, more frequent deliveries carry additional costs and may cannibalize traditional distribution operations if not carefully managed. Although management confirmed that it tested profitability and the absence of substitution before accelerating the rollout, raising the fiscal 2027 sales target from $1.5 billion to more than $1.7 billion increases the importance of maintaining service margins during expansion.
  • −The analyst target range of $107 to $127 reflects a $20 difference in value estimates, while the average target of $117 is only approximately 5% above the 52-week range high of $111.42. The proximity of the consensus anchor to annual historical highs means that realizing greater additional value requires continued earnings growth and margin expansion in line with guidance.
  • −Net insider transactions during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 7, 2026, amounted to $2.4 million in sales, with one sale and no purchases. This remains a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context does not explain the motivation for the transaction.
How does US Foods use artificial intelligence in its operations?

The Visit Assistant tool delivered more than 700 thousand actionable insights to sales representatives during the first six weeks, with the aim of improving visit preparation and identifying customer opportunities. The company is testing a generative sales assistant that answers representatives' questions within the workflow, alongside the use of demand forecasting, labor planning, and the Descartes system to improve routing. It also began testing autonomous inventory-scanning robots in one warehouse and plans to expand the trial to six additional locations by the end of fiscal 2026. These tools are linked to an annual productivity target of between 3% and 5% across warehouses, delivery, and commercial operations.

What are the main risks facing USFD after its Q2 fiscal 2026 results?

Restaurant traffic remained under pressure, and chain restaurant case volume declined 1.5% despite acceleration in the independent restaurant business. Fuel represented approximately one-third of the increase in adjusted operating expenses, while management expects elevated selling costs to continue for two additional quarters because of the compensation plan transition and advance hiring. The company also expects the rate of gross profit per case growth to slow in Q3 fiscal 2026 compared with previous levels. In addition, Pronto's expansion must maintain profitability and avoid cannibalizing traditional distribution operations while targeting sales exceeding $1.7 billion in fiscal 2027.

What do liquidity and capital allocation look like at US Foods?

The company generated $725 million in operating cash flow year to date in fiscal 2026, supported by earnings and working capital management. It repurchased $374 million of shares in Q2, bringing year-to-date repurchases to approximately $500 million. Net leverage was 2.6 times, within the target range of two to three times. The company also extended the maturity of its asset-backed credit facility to 2031 and increased it to $2.5 billion, with no long-term debt maturities before 2028.