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Home
Stocks
U.S. Bancorp
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall70
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 7/9Better than 70% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
68
12.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
42
18.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
74
——Top tier
▸
Safety
14
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
39
3.25%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
90
30.2%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
75
13▲3Top tier
USB

USB U.S. Bancorp

U.S. Bancorp · NYSE
Market Closed
62.84
▲ ⁦+0.69%⁩ (+0.43)
Market Cap$97.2B
Beta0.98
52w Low52w High
45.0266.08
Last Week
⁦-1.09%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.35%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+9.04%⁩
Last Year
⁦+27.72%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$63
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$68
⁦+8%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$66–$75⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$95
⁦+51%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.7⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$68–$95⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$69.80
⁦+11.1%⁩
Current Price $62.84·Median $68.00
Low
$66.00
High
$75.00
Current price
$62.84
Average target
$69.80
Street summary

U.S. Bancorp (USB) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Analyst revisions for U.S. Bancorp (USB) have shown a slight positive bias over the past 30 days, with the average price target rising from 69.33 to 69.8, an increase of 0.68%. This trend is reinforced by the upgrade of the stock's rating by Evercore ISI Group to Outperform, alongside stable positive ratings from major institutions such as RBC Capital, Citigroup, and Barclays, indicating institutional confidence in the bank's future financial performance.

As of 2026-08-31
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.70
Buy
Analyst coverage
23
Buy conviction
61%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
14%
Analyst ratings over time23 analysts rating
2
12
9
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.69 → 3.70
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-20
    Evercore ISI Group
    PositiveOutperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.54x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    11.79x
    2.76x22.06x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    18.2%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    19.9%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    3.2%
    0.6%9.0%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    40.7%
    9.8%97.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-16 data

Company Overview

U.S. Bancorp is a diversified banking group that generates income from net interest income and a broad range of fees, including payments, capital markets, credit and investment services, and consumer banking fees. The group serves about 13 million consumers through digital channels and branches, in addition to about 7 million customers through credit cards, co-branded programs, the Elan platform, and its partners. In fiscal Q2 2026, fees accounted for 44% of total revenue, payments represented about 23%, while capital markets contributed about 7%.

In fiscal Q2 2026, U.S. Bancorp reported record net revenue of $7.7 billion, up 10.1% year over year, and earnings per share of $1.35, an increase of about 22%. Taxable-equivalent net interest income rose 7.5% to $4.4 billion, and the net interest margin improved by two basis points sequentially to 2.79%, while fee income increased 13.2%, or 9.9% excluding BTIG. Return on tangible common equity was 18.7%, return on average assets was 1.26%, and the efficiency ratio improved to 57.1%, with positive operating leverage of 400 basis points.

The operating balance sheet showed broad-based growth in fiscal Q2 2026; average loans increased 7.1% year over year and 3.0% sequentially to $405 billion, while average deposits grew 2.4% year over year, alongside consumer deposits reaching a record level for the third consecutive quarter. Credit quality improved, with the ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate declining to 0.33%, and the net charge-off ratio falling to 0.53%, while the allowance for credit losses remained at $8 billion, or 1.94% of period-end loans. The common equity tier 1 capital ratio was 10.8% as of June 30, 2026, or 9.4% after accounting for accumulated other comprehensive income.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its fiscal 2026 total net revenue growth outlook to 7%–9% from 4%–6% previously, or to 5%–7% excluding BTIG, while targeting about 200 basis points of positive operating leverage and more than 300 basis points excluding the impact of BTIG.
  • The completed acquisition of BTIG added about $98 million in capital markets revenue during June 2026, the highest monthly performance in BTIG's history, and management expects a contribution of approximately $200 million per quarter during the second half of fiscal 2026. U.S. Bancorp aims to increase capital markets from about 7% to approximately 10% of total revenue through organic growth and cross-selling to existing customers.
  • Fee income increased 13.2% in fiscal Q2 2026, and growth remained 9.9% excluding BTIG, supported by capital markets, credit and investment services, and payments. Capital markets revenue excluding BTIG also grew about 31%, and management expects low-double-digit fee income growth during fiscal 2026, with more than four percentage points coming from BTIG.
  • Consumer deposits are benefiting from the Bank Smartly ecosystem, whose checking and savings account balances exceeded $84 billion, while the proportion of multi-product consumer customers rose to 42%. The company intends to increase annual branch investment from about $200 million to $300 million, focusing on strengthening its presence in about 10 markets with high household formation growth.
  • Management expects the Amazon Small Business portfolio to add quarterly revenue of $75–85 million when fully operational, with about two-thirds coming from net interest income and one-third from fees. The portfolio totals $1.6 billion, and management links it to the Business Essentials platform and its strategy of digitally delivering card and banking services to small businesses.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal Q2 2026 combines 10.1% net revenue growth, earnings per share growth of about 22%, and positive operating leverage of 400 basis points, indicating that income acceleration exceeded expense growth during the period.
  • +Revenue diversification is evident, with fees reaching 44% of the total, fee income growing 9.9% even excluding BTIG, and payments growing 5.7%. This mix reduces the results' reliance on net interest income alone, while BTIG adds equity trading and advisory capabilities to the capital markets business.
  • +Profitability and credit metrics both improved in fiscal Q2 2026; return on tangible common equity reached 18.7%, the nonperforming assets ratio declined to 0.33%, and tangible book value per share increased more than 13% year over year to exceed $30 as of June 30, 2026.
  • +Average loan growth of 7.1% year over year and a 7.5% increase in net interest income support the earnings trajectory, while a $10–11 billion fixed-asset portfolio reprices each quarter at a spread of approximately 100 to 125 basis points. Management expects continued improvement in the net interest margin and a path toward 3% at some point during 2027, while the outcome remains linked to deposit costs and the shape of the yield curve.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

Analyst consensus rates USB shares a "Buy," with an average price target of $69.8 and a range of $66 to $75. The average target exceeds the 52-week range high of $66.08 by about 5.6%, while the lowest target nearly matches that level, reflecting limited upside expectations at the conservative end and greater upside in the optimistic scenario; the full 52-week range is between $45.02 and $66.08.

BuyAnalyst target: $69.8(+11.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were U.S. Bancorp's key results in fiscal Q2 2026?

The company generated record net revenue of $7.7 billion, up 10.1% year over year. Earnings per share reached $1.35, up about 22%, with positive operating leverage of 400 basis points. The net interest margin improved to 2.79% and the efficiency ratio to 57.1%, while return on tangible common equity reached 18.7%.

How does the BTIG acquisition change USB's business mix?

U.S. Bancorp completed the acquisition of BTIG, and the acquired company added about $98 million in capital markets revenue in June 2026. Management expects a contribution of approximately $200 million per quarter during the second half of fiscal 2026, with an assumed contribution margin of about 15%. The company aims to increase capital markets from about 7% to approximately 10% of revenue through cross-selling and organic growth, without assuming the need for another complementary acquisition to achieve that goal.

What is the impact of the Amazon Small Business partnership on U.S. Bancorp's results?

The Amazon Small Business portfolio is valued at about $1.6 billion, and management expected its purchase to close in mid-August 2026. When fully operational, the company expects quarterly revenue of $75–85 million, with about two-thirds coming from net interest income and one-third from fees. In return, U.S. Bancorp expects to build a credit allowance of about $160 million associated with the portfolio purchase and views it as a platform for expanding Business Essentials, card, and banking services for small businesses.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −The strength of loan growth is associated with cyclical credit risks, particularly in cyclical lending portfolios, despite improving metrics in fiscal Q2 2026. The allowance for credit losses was $8 billion, or 1.94% of loans, and the company also expects to build an additional allowance of about $160 million when the purchase of the Amazon Small Business portfolio closes.
  • −Merchant payment processing activity slowed because of weakness in Europe and the loss of some nonstrategic distribution partners, and management expects the impact of the partner losses to persist for about three quarters after fiscal Q2 2026. This could reduce the near-term growth of this business, even as total payment services revenue grew 5.7%.
  • −The cost of funding loan growth may pressure the net interest margin; deposit rates rose by two basis points in fiscal Q2 2026, and management explained that strong loan growth may require higher deposit rates. The timing of reaching a net interest margin of approximately 3% in 2027 also depends on deposit behavior and the shape of the yield curve.
  • −The integration of BTIG increases near-term expenses and execution risks; the company expects about $60 million in integration costs during the second half of fiscal 2026, with a potential residual impact in early 2027. The outlook assumes a contribution margin of approximately 15% for the remainder of fiscal 2026, while expected noninterest expense growth in fiscal Q3 2026 is about 8% versus 3.5% for core expenses excluding BTIG.
  • −The BTIG outlook includes a contribution of approximately $200 million in each quarter of the second half of fiscal 2026, which is below the implied annualized pace of the record June month that generated $98 million. Management acknowledged that capital markets fees are volatile and does not expect the approximately 30% growth in the core capital markets business during the first half to continue at the same rate in the second half.
  • −Net insider transactions during the three months ended with the latest transaction on July 23, 2026, were negative $3.8 million, with two sales and no purchases recorded. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence to the contrary.
What is U.S. Bancorp's fiscal 2026 outlook?

Management raised its total net revenue growth outlook to 7%–9% compared with the prior fiscal year, or 5%–7% excluding BTIG, after the previous range was 4%–6%. It expects positive operating leverage of about 200 basis points and more than 300 basis points excluding BTIG. For fiscal Q3 2026, it expects net interest income growth of 4%–6%, fee income growth of 12%–14%, and noninterest expense growth of about 8%.

What supports deposit and customer growth at USB?

U.S. Bancorp serves about 13 million consumers, approximately 18% of whom live outside its traditional branch footprint, and also serves about 7 million customers through cards, co-branded programs, the Elan platform, and partners. Bank Smartly checking and savings balances exceeded $84 billion, and the proportion of multi-product consumer customers reached 42%. In fiscal Q2 2026, consumer deposits reached a record level for the third consecutive quarter, and the company plans to increase annual branch investment to $300 million.

What are the main risks to monitor for USB shares?

Risks include continued weakness in merchant payment processing in Europe and the impact of losing nonstrategic distribution partners for about three quarters after fiscal Q2 2026. Competition for deposits and the funding of loan growth could also raise deposit costs and slow net interest margin expansion. The integration of BTIG adds about $60 million in expected integration costs in the second half of fiscal 2026, while the purchase of the Amazon Small Business portfolio is associated with building an allowance of about $160 million.