| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 33 | 49.2x | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 96 | 46.3% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 49 | — | — | Around median | |
Safety | 30 | — | — | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 11 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 14 | -53.5% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 74 | 8 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Upstart operates a consumer lending platform that uses artificial intelligence models to assess credit risk and connect borrowers with external funding sources. The unsecured lending segment, which is the only reportable segment, includes personal loans, small-dollar loans, and the Cash Line product, while secured products include Auto and Home. Most income comes from fees associated with loan origination, verification, servicing, and sale, with additional contributions from net interest income and fair value adjustments; in fiscal 2026 Q2, fee revenue totaled $348 million out of total revenue of approximately $365 million.
In fiscal 2026 Q2, revenue rose 42% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter to approximately $365 million, exceeding the analyst estimate of $351.52 million. Originations totaled $4.2 billion, growing 50% year over year and 23% quarter over quarter, and the company reported GAAP net income of approximately $17 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, after a net loss of $6.6 million in fiscal 2026 Q1. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $77 million at a 21% margin, while the net income margin was 5%.
Unsecured lending remained the largest financial driver, generating $326 million in fee revenue, compared with $22 million for secured products. The overall contribution margin was 55%, and the unsecured lending margin rose to 62%, while the secured products margin improved from negative 96% in fiscal 2026 Q1 to negative 35% in fiscal 2026 Q2. Contribution profit reached a record $193 million, up 41% quarter over quarter, despite GAAP operating expenses rising to approximately $350 million.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus indicates a Buy rating and an average price target of $40, within a wide range of $30 to $51; Piper Sandler raised its target in August 2026 from $46 to $51, and Needham raised its target from $40 to $42. The average target is approximately 45% below the 52-week range high of $72.85 and approximately 67% above its low of $23.965, reflecting a revaluation associated with the return to profitability and improved funding, balanced against the sensitivity of loans to UMI and the continued negative margins of secured products.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue rose to approximately $365 million, up 42% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter, and exceeded the analyst estimate of $351.52 million. Originations grew to $4.2 billion, driven by a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase in core personal loans and 45% quarter-over-quarter growth in secured products. The improved mix and acquisition efficiency raised contribution profit to a record $193 million and returned the company to GAAP net income of approximately $17 million.
Upstart launched three new personal loan underwriting models in fiscal 2026 Q2, adding more than 300 variables to the assessment process. It also moved inference to a distributed platform that is approximately 65% faster at the median than the previous infrastructure. According to the company's metric, model accuracy reached 2.74 times that of the traditional credit scoring model, with 87.38% of the inaccuracy gap remaining addressable under its methodology.
Secured products did not reach profitability in fiscal 2026 Q2, as their contribution margin was negative 35%. However, the margin improved by 61 percentage points from negative 96% in fiscal 2026 Q1, alongside 45% quarter-over-quarter growth in originations. Management is targeting contribution margin breakeven by fiscal 2026 Q4, supported by improved fee rates, automation, and a 15% reduction in HELOC origination costs.
UMI reached 1.5 on August 3, 2026, after rising 9% since the beginning of fiscal 2026 Q2. This level is at the upper end of the 1.4–1.5 range on which the company based its guidance, and it pressures loan origination volumes and fair value adjustments. Management therefore maintained fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue of approximately $1.4 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $294 million, assuming UMI remains near this level for the rest of the year.
Since the beginning of fiscal 2026, Upstart has signed committed capital partnerships expected to add up to $10.8 billion in funding capacity. It completed three securitizations with total collateral of approximately $1.7 billion, in addition to issuing $569 million in asset-backed securities. As a result, loans held on the balance sheet represented only 5.9% of the total outstanding balance at the end of fiscal 2026 Q2, despite originations growing 23% quarter over quarter.
The company received conditional approval from OCC in July 2026 and is targeting the bank's launch in early 2027 after completing approvals and operational work. Management expects to transfer most or all loan origination operations to Upstart Bank and begin collecting deposits shortly after launch, while continuing to base its funding strategy primarily on third-party capital. The company did not disclose the amount of capital allocated to the bank, but said Upstart's resources are sufficient for the launch process.
