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Stocks
UPS
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall71
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 4/8Better than 71% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
77
18.6x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
16
-0.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
68
12.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
54
2.4x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
72
6.33%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
57
24.2%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
74
17▲3Top tier
UPS

UPS United Parcel Service, Inc.

United Parcel Service, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
100.27
▲ ⁦+0.30%⁩ (+0.30)
Market Cap$85.2B
Beta1.04
52w Low52w High
82.00122.41
Last Week
⁦-2.66%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.98%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-2.90%⁩
Last Year
⁦+18.80%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$100
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$120
⁦+20%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$76–$132⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$83
⁦-17%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦9.0⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$83–$120⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$119.00
⁦+18.7%⁩
Current Price $100.27·Median $120.00
Low
$76.00
High
$132.00
Current price
$100.27
Average target
$119.00
Street summary

UPS Stock Price Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

UPS stock has seen an improvement in analyst outlook over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising by 5.84% to reach $119, up from $112.43. This increase reflects cautious optimism, especially as the price target has remained stable and unchanged over the last week, suggesting that the market has absorbed the previous positive adjustments.

As of 2026-08-05
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.31
Hold
Analyst coverage
29
Buy conviction
48%
Mixed
Target dispersion
56%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time29 analysts rating
14
12
1
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.32 → 3.31
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Susquehanna
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.60x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    12.94x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.62x
    3.43x27.47x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.4%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -19.9%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    16.6%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    12.0%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.35x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    6.3%
    0.1%4.8%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    117.8%
    6.6%80.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

United Parcel Service operates an integrated global logistics network that generates revenue from three main segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions. Its model relies on air and ground package transportation, freight, warehousing, and healthcare logistics, alongside digital platforms such as DAP and services including Roadie and Happy Returns; the company is improving its revenue mix by focusing on small and medium-sized businesses, B2B customers, and healthcare rather than lower-yield volumes.

In fiscal Q2 2026, consolidated revenue increased 7.6% year over year to $22.8 billion, operating profit rose 12% to $2.1 billion, and diluted earnings per share reached $1.76. The consolidated operating margin expanded 40 basis points year over year and 300 basis points compared with fiscal Q1 2026 to 9.2%, although GAAP results included $891 million in after-tax transformation costs primarily related to workforce reductions under the Driver Choice program.

The U.S. Domestic business was the largest contributor in fiscal Q2 2026, with revenue of $14.9 billion, operating profit of $1.2 billion, and a margin of 8%, while the International segment recorded revenue of $5 billion, operating profit of $623 million, and a margin of 12.4%. The Supply Chain Solutions segment generated revenue of $2.9 billion, operating profit of $291 million, and a margin of 10.2%, up 220 basis points year over year; healthcare revenue also exceeded $3 billion for the second consecutive quarter, and global DAP revenue reached $1.4 billion.

What's Driving the Stock

  • UPS raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to approximately $91.2 billion in revenue, approximately $8.65 billion in operating profit, and approximately $7.22 in diluted earnings per share, after results exceeded management expectations for four consecutive quarters through fiscal Q2 2026.
  • The company completed the reduction of Amazon volumes and the network reconfiguration after removing approximately 2 million packages per day of lower-quality volume and reducing approximately $4.5 billion in associated expenses, while expecting to achieve approximately $3 billion in efficiency benefits during fiscal 2026.
  • The customer mix in the U.S. Domestic business improved during fiscal Q2 2026; average daily volume from small and medium-sized businesses grew 4.3% and came to represent 34.5% of domestic volume, while average daily B2B volume through DAP increased 34% and global DAP revenue reached $1.4 billion.
  • Automation supports operating leverage; 68.5% of domestic volume passed through automated facilities by the end of fiscal Q2 2026, compared with 64% a year earlier, and management says the cost per package in an automated facility is approximately 28% lower than in a non-automated facility. The rollout of RFID sensing technology was also completed across all U.S. delivery facilities and package vehicles, and packages shipped from the 5,500 UPS Stores became enabled with this technology.
  • UPS expanded its specialized logistics services by adding 27 temperature-controlled cross-dock facilities, and its healthcare business generated more than $3 billion in revenue in fiscal Q2 2026. It also announced on August 24, 2026, that its investments in international, healthcare, and supply chain businesses would exceed $2 billion during the period from 2024 to 2028.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The network reconfiguration showed a tangible financial impact in fiscal Q2 2026; operating profit in the U.S. Domestic business increased 21% year over year to $1.2 billion, and its margin expanded 100 basis points to 8% despite a 3.3% decline in domestic average daily volume.
  • +The business mix is shifting toward higher-quality revenue sources, with small and medium-sized business volume growing 4.3%, UPS Digital revenue increasing by more than 30%, and healthcare revenue exceeding $3 billion for the second consecutive quarter in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • +Automation and RFID provide a foundation for further efficiency and customer retention; the cost per package was approximately 28% lower in automated facilities, and management said it had not seen customer losses at locations using RFID at the point of origin.
  • +Cash generation supports the company's ability to invest and return capital; it generated $3.1 billion in operating cash flow and $1.6 billion in free cash flow during the first half of fiscal 2026, and ended Q2 with $4.7 billion in cash and no commercial paper outstanding.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on UPS is neutral, with an average price target of $119 and a wide range between $76 and $132. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $122.41 and significantly above its low of $82, while the breadth of analyst targets reveals a fundamental divergence in assessing the impact of the network reconfiguration versus the risks of weak volumes, tariffs, and competition.

HoldAnalyst target: $119(+18.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove UPS's earnings growth in fiscal Q2 2026?

Consolidated revenue increased 7.6% to $22.8 billion, operating profit rose 12% to $2.1 billion, and the operating margin reached 9.2%. The U.S. Domestic business was the primary driver, as its operating profit grew 21% to $1.2 billion and its margin expanded to 8%. Base pricing, an improved customer mix, and productivity following the network reconfiguration helped revenue per package grow 9.3% and exceed cost-per-package growth by 130 basis points.

How does the reduction in Amazon business affect UPS?

UPS removed approximately 2 million packages per day of lower-quality Amazon volume and reduced expenses associated with the plan by approximately $4.5 billion over the 18-month implementation period through fiscal Q2 2026. Amazon still represented 9% of total revenue, down approximately 100 basis points from the prior year and below the level that exceeded 13% during the pandemic year referenced in the call. Management expects the comparison effect on volumes to continue during the first half of fiscal 2027, but believes the lower-cost network gives incremental packages better economics.

How important is the healthcare business to UPS's strategy?

UPS generated more than $3 billion in healthcare revenue in fiscal Q2 2026, for the second consecutive quarter. The company added 27 temperature-controlled cross-dock facilities to move complex products between air and ground services while maintaining temperature, and said its cold chain business and revenue per kilogram are growing at double-digit rates. On August 24, 2026, it disclosed that investments in international, healthcare, and supply chain businesses would exceed $2 billion during the period from 2024 to 2028.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Amazon still represents significant customer concentration at 9% of UPS's total revenue in fiscal Q2 2026, despite the percentage declining by approximately 100 basis points over a year. The comparison effect from Amazon volumes will continue in the first half of fiscal 2027, which could pressure reported package growth even as other volumes improve.
  • −UPS faces direct competition for small and medium-sized businesses, B2B customers, and e-commerce platforms; management discussed Amazon's expansion into enterprise shipping and FedEx's launch of a program similar to DAP. UPS's ability to defend its market share depends on the continued differentiation of RFID, healthcare logistics, returns, and time-definite service.
  • −The fiscal Q3 2026 outlook indicates continued weakness in domestic volume, as management expects average daily volume to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage and revenue to remain approximately flat year over year, with a domestic operating margin of approximately 7% compared with 8% in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • −International segment volumes declined in fiscal Q2 2026; average daily volume fell 5.8% and exports declined 4.2%, while international operating profit decreased by $59 million to $623 million. Despite revenue growth of 12.5%, the segment's margin declined 120 basis points due to fuel to 12.4%, illustrating that higher revenue does not fully translate into profit.
  • −The international network is exposed to tariffs, geopolitical disruptions, and fuel volatility; tariffs pressured the Canada-to-U.S. lane, while Middle East disruptions affected European exports and required additional flight hours and chartered aircraft. Fuel also accounted for more than half of the growth in international revenue per package in fiscal Q2 2026, reducing the quality of part of the revenue growth.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus and the wide divergence among their targets reflect clear valuation risk; the average target of $119 is close to the 52-week range high of $122.41, while the target range extends from $76 to $132. This divergence indicates that the valuation is sensitive to the success of margin expansion and a volume recovery following the reduction in Amazon business.
  • Are small and medium-sized businesses and DAP offsetting the decline in Amazon volumes?

    Average daily volume from small and medium-sized businesses grew 4.3% in fiscal Q2 2026, and their share of domestic volume increased 250 basis points to 34.5%. Average daily B2B volume through DAP increased 34%, and global DAP revenue reached $1.4 billion, exceeding $1 billion for the third consecutive quarter. However, total domestic average daily volume remained down 3.3% due to the Amazon reduction and actions to shed other low-yield volumes.

    What role do RFID and artificial intelligence play in reducing UPS's costs?

    All U.S. delivery facilities and package vehicles were fully enabled with RFID sensing technology by fiscal Q2 2026, and packages shipped from 5,500 UPS Stores also became enabled with this technology. The company uses data generated from billions of package movements within an artificial intelligence-powered digital twin to improve planning, routing, and execution according to network conditions. By the end of the quarter, 68.5% of domestic volume passed through automated facilities, and management estimates that the cost per package in those facilities is approximately 28% lower than in non-automated facilities.

    What is UPS's outlook for fiscal 2026?

    Management expects consolidated revenue of approximately $91.2 billion, operating profit of approximately $8.65 billion, and diluted earnings per share of approximately $7.22 in fiscal 2026. The outlook includes U.S. Domestic revenue of approximately $60 billion and a margin of approximately 7.5%, with mid-single-digit international growth and an international margin in the mid-teens. The company also expects free cash flow of approximately $5.5 billion, capital expenditures of approximately $3 billion, and dividends of approximately $5.4 billion, subject to board approval.