| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 35 | 23.1x | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 47 | 7.4% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 94 | 16.0% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 64 | 2.2x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 78 | 1.87% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 85 | 21.7% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 89 | 15 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
67% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Union Pacific Corporation, listed under the ticker UNP, generates revenue from rail freight transportation, including grain, industrial products, and intermodal freight. Its revenue mechanism combines freight volumes, pricing, freight mix, and fuel surcharges; therefore, an increase in amounts collected does not necessarily mean a similar improvement in demand. On the call for quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, management reported freight volume growth of 2% compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, versus a 1% decline in bulk segment volumes, with double-digit growth in grain and grain products volumes. Domestic intermodal freight stands out as a source of demand, but it also weighs on the revenue mix, according to management's explanation.
In quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-09-30, with financial statements filed on 2026-10-22, revenue according to EL7 data was -13.1 billion dollars, and net income was -3.7 billion dollars, while diluted earnings per share were 3.48 dollars. Gross margin was 45.4%, operating margin as calculated by EL7 was 39.8%, and operating cash flow according to EL7 data was -4.8 billion dollars for the same period. These mixed figures do not provide a consistent reading of performance; reliable year-over-year revenue comparisons and year-over-year changes in margins are also unavailable. In fiscal year 2025, ended 2025-12-31, revenue was 24.5 billion dollars and net income was 7.1 billion dollars.
Q3 FY2026
Last 12 months to 2026-09-30
When: 2027-01-28
Diluted earnings per share compared with the 3.48 dollars threshold in the expected earnings announcement
Operating margin as calculated by EL7 compared with the 39.8% threshold in the expected earnings announcement
The median target of 5 analysts was 334 dollars, within a range of 294 to 350 dollars in the 2026-10-21 snapshot; this method reflects growth expectations, and analyst targets tend to be optimistic by nature. The industry-multiple valuation was 269 dollars, within a range of 139 to 305 dollars, based on next year's earnings at a median multiple of 19.9 across 8 companies, meaning Union Pacific's earnings are priced like those of its peers. The no-growth value was 33 dollars at a discount rate of 9.5%, measuring the value of current after-tax operating profit remaining constant forever. The analyst estimate and the industry-multiple estimate remain closer to each other, with overlapping ranges, while the no-growth value is markedly lower because its assumption excludes the future expansion reflected in analyst expectations and next year's earnings.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-22; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Union Pacific relies on service speed and the availability of container options and private assets to win freight from road transportation, according to the 2026-07-23 call. In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, freight car velocity increased 5% compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year to 231 miles per day, with volume growth of 2%. Management emphasized that winning business is tied to service quality, rather than only tight trucking capacity or higher trucking costs.
In quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-09-30, revenue according to EL7 data was -13.1 billion dollars and net income was -3.7 billion dollars, versus positive diluted earnings per share of 3.48 dollars. Gross margin was 45.4% and operating margin as calculated by EL7 was 39.8% for the same period. This discrepancy prevents the results from being summarized as an overall improvement, and reliable year-over-year revenue comparisons and year-over-year changes in margins are also unavailable.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
A news report dated 2026-09-30 stated that the Surface Transportation Board had allowed a comprehensive review to proceed, with the expected completion date extended to the second half of 2027. A news report dated 2026-10-01 stated that requests to dismiss the revised merger application had been rejected, representing a continuation of the process rather than final approval. On the 2026-07-23 call, management discussed the Canadian National agreement to address aspects of competitive access and improve traffic through Chicago.
Operating cash flow according to EL7 data was approximately 2.9 billion dollars for the last 12 months through 2026-09-30, equivalent to 156% of net income of 1.9 billion dollars for the same period. However, free cash flow as calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) for the last 12 months was -1.8 billion dollars, meaning that operating cash generation did not leave a surplus after capital expenditures under this calculation. On 2026-10-22, the 2026 capital expenditure plan was raised to 3.5 billion dollars, increasing the importance of monitoring the cash return on investment.
The median analyst target was 334 dollars in the 2026-10-21 snapshot, versus 269 dollars for the industry-multiple valuation and 33 dollars for the no-growth value. Analyst targets reflect growth expectations, while the industry estimate uses next year's earnings and a median multiple of 19.9 across 8 companies. The no-growth value assumes that current after-tax operating profit remains constant forever at a discount rate of 9.5%, and therefore measures a fundamentally different scenario from continued expansion.