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Stocks
UnitedHealth
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall83
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 83% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
60
24.4x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
24
6.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
90
11.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
65
1.7x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
69
2.30%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
76
17.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
43
19▲3Around median
UNH

UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated · NYSE
Market Closed
379.09
▼ ⁦-2.37%⁩ (-9.19)
Market Cap$344.3B
Beta0.63
52w Low52w High
255.97461.62
Last Week
⁦-5.45%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.53%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.52%⁩
Last Year
⁦+9.32%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$379
Analyst target · 15 analysts
$491
⁦+30%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$373–$529⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$406
⁦+7%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$406–$491⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 15 analysts setting price target
$473.89
⁦+25.0%⁩
Current Price $379.09·Median $491.00
Low
$373.00
High
$529.00
Current price
$379.09
Average target
$473.89
Street summary

Target prices steady as valuation dispersion widens

Bearish tilt

Target price expectations were unchanged over one, seven, or thirty days; the consensus average remained at $473.89 with 15 analysts. The range is between $373 and $529, while the median is $491 versus a current price of $379.09, reflecting clear divergence among valuations despite the consensus remaining stable. Earnings and revenue estimates also indicate average forecast growth from 2026 to 2029, but the number of analysts declines in the more distant estimates, particularly 2029 earnings per share, reducing the clarity of those forecasts.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.11
Buy
Analyst coverage
27
Buy conviction
85%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 2↓
Target dispersion
41%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time27 analysts rating
7
16
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.85 → 4.11
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-09
    UBS
    BuyUnderweight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-09
    Wells Fargo
    OverweightUnderweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    24.38x
    3.94x44.30x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    19.43x
    4.64x37.16x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.22x
    3.77x30.13x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.3%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.5%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -32.6%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    74.8%
    12.8%90.7%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    11.3%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.73x
    0.60x5.10x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.3%
    0.0%3.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    56.1%
    7.4%76.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-16 data

Company Overview

UnitedHealth Group operates through an integrated system that combines the regulated health benefits businesses of UnitedHealthcare with the Optum group, which includes Optum Health, Optum Rx, and Optum Insight. UnitedHealthcare offers Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial benefits plans, while Optum Health serves approximately 20 million people through primary and specialty care, ambulatory surgery, and home-based care; Optum Rx provides pharmacy benefit management services; and Optum Insight sells technology and services that include AI-powered coding and real-time connectivity between payers and care providers.

In Q2 fiscal year 2026, UnitedHealth Group's revenue was approximately $112 billion and remained nearly flat year over year, while operating profit rose 55% to $8 billion, representing an operating margin of approximately 7.1%. Adjusted earnings per share reached $6.38 versus $4.08 in the comparable period, and the medical care ratio declined to 86.7% from 89.4%, with results benefiting from net favorable prior-period medical development of $860 million. Operating cash flow was approximately $11 billion, or 1.9 times net income.

The operational improvement was driven by better-than-expected performance in Medicare Advantage and improvement at Optum Health, while commercial benefits and Medicaid remained under pressure from medical costs. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 operating profit outlook to at least $12 billion for UnitedHealthcare and $2.2 billion for Optum Health, while Optum Rx and Optum Insight are each expected to generate approximately 55% of their annual earnings during the second half of fiscal year 2026. This composition confirms that the recovery is relatively broad, but uneven across businesses and periods.

What's Driving the Stock

  • UnitedHealth Group raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance range for fiscal year 2026 to $19.50–$20.00 after reporting $6.38 in Q2 fiscal year 2026, while increasing its operating profit outlook for both UnitedHealthcare and Optum Health.
  • Medicare Advantage economics improved through benefit design, care management, and network optimization; the company expects Medicare medical cost trends during fiscal year 2026 to come in below its initial estimate of approximately 10% and expects the business to end the year with a margin above 3%.
  • Optum Health's initiatives are showing measurable results, including an approximately 10% reduction in hospital admissions in the West and South regions, an improvement of more than 20% in care delivery in home-based pilots, and the addition of approximately 200 thousand patient service hours, while patient experience increased approximately 5% year over year.
  • The use of artificial intelligence is expanding from improving internal efficiency to marketable products; ambient documentation tools are now available to approximately 70% of employed care providers at Optum Health, with a target of exceeding 90% by the end of 2026, while the digital prior authorization product achieved a 96% initial approval rate and saved external organizations 69 thousand administrative hours.
  • Optum Rx maintains customer retention rates in the high 90s, and the company expects more than 95% of customers to be on a model that passes through 100% of manufacturer rebates by the end of 2026, paving the way to reach all customers by the end of 2027. Optum Insight's Value Connect platform also showed an initial 17% reduction in pharmacy costs for customers.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Operating earnings rose 55% year over year in Q2 fiscal year 2026, while the medical care ratio improved by 270 basis points to 86.7%, providing quantitative evidence of the impact of pricing actions, benefit design, and operating discipline.
  • +The company generated approximately $11 billion in operating cash flow in Q2 fiscal year 2026 and reduced its debt-to-capital ratio to 41.2% from 44.1% a year earlier, while targeting approximately 40% by the end of 2026.
  • +The company raised its fiscal year 2026 share repurchase program to at least $5 billion from initial guidance of $2.5 billion and had repurchased 11.4 million shares for $4 billion through mid-July 2026.
  • +Optum has defined growth paths beyond traditional insurance, including value-based care for approximately 20 million people, 2.5 million home visits for patients in rural areas, and artificial intelligence products being converted from internal uses into commercial services for customers.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $473.89, with a “Buy” consensus and a wide range between $373 and $529; the average exceeds the high recorded within the 52-week range of $461.62 by approximately $12.27. However, the $156 spread in targets, and the fact that the low end falls within the 52-week range of $255.97–$461.62, reflect a meaningful divergence in assessments of the impact of margin recovery versus the risks from medical costs, lawsuits, and the tax investigation.

BuyAnalyst target: $473.89(+25.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove UNH's results in Q2 fiscal year 2026?

Revenue was approximately $112 billion, and operating profit rose 55% year over year to $8 billion. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.38 versus $4.08, and the medical care ratio declined to 86.7% from 89.4%. The improvement came primarily from better-than-expected Medicare Advantage performance and improvement at Optum Health, while results also benefited from $860 million of favorable prior-period medical development.

What is UnitedHealth Group's outlook for fiscal year 2026?

The company set its adjusted earnings per share range at $19.50–$20.00 for fiscal year 2026. It expects operating profit of at least $12 billion at UnitedHealthcare and $2.2 billion at Optum Health, with a medical care ratio of 88.1%, plus or minus 25 basis points. It also targets reducing the debt-to-capital ratio to approximately 40% and completing share repurchases of at least $5 billion by the end of 2026.

Have medical cost pressures at UNH subsided?

Medicare costs improved relative to the company's initial estimate of an approximately 10% trend in fiscal year 2026, but management emphasized that this does not represent an inflection point and that costs remain historically elevated. By contrast, the cost trend in commercial benefits exceeded 11% due to dispute resolution under the No Surprises Act, coding intensity, and the rising cost of specialty drugs and GLP-1. In Medicaid, estimated annual rate increases of approximately 6%–7% continue to lag the medical cost trend.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Commercial benefit costs remain stubbornly elevated and above 11%, with the dispute resolution process under the No Surprises Act contributing approximately an additional 50 basis points to the cost trend during fiscal year 2026 and at least 100 basis points in total; consequently, the timing for restoring the commercial business margin to 7% or more has extended beyond 2027.
  • −The Medicaid business expects a negative margin between 1% and 1.7% in fiscal year 2026 because the impact of annual rate increases of approximately 6%–7% continues to lag the elevated medical cost trend, particularly in specialty drugs, home- and community-based care, and behavioral health.
  • −The company expects Medicare Advantage membership to decline by approximately 1.1 million members during fiscal year 2026 and also emphasizes that the improvement in costs relative to plan does not represent an inflection point and that the medical trend remains well above historical levels.
  • −UnitedHealth's leadership faces a shareholder lawsuit announced on August 13, 2026, containing allegations concerning Medicare fraud, the use of algorithms to deny care, and insider stock sales worth $237 million; these are legal allegations that could pressure governance and reputation if they result in liabilities or regulatory action.
  • −The Internal Revenue Service began an investigation announced on August 19, 2026, into transfers of funds through foreign subsidiaries and is seeking to increase taxable income for four consecutive years, creating separate exposure to potential additional tax liabilities.
  • −Q2 fiscal year 2026 revenue remained nearly flat at $112 billion despite the surge in operating profit, and the results included $860 million of favorable prior-period medical development; additionally, the company expects to record most of Optum Health's earnings in the first half, with a modest profit in Q3 and a modest loss in Q4 fiscal year 2026.
  • How does Optum use artificial intelligence commercially and operationally?

    Optum Health made AI-powered ambient documentation tools available to approximately 70% of employed care providers, with a target of exceeding 90% by the end of 2026. Digital prior authorization achieved a 96% initial approval rate, while the commercial product processed approximately half a million requests and saved external organizations 69 thousand administrative hours. Optum Insight also offers the Value Connect platform, whose initial results included a 17% reduction in pharmacy costs for customers.

    What are the most significant legal and regulatory risks facing UNH?

    A shareholder lawsuit announced on August 13, 2026, includes allegations of Medicare fraud, the use of algorithms to deny care, and insider sales worth $237 million. On August 19, 2026, an Internal Revenue Service investigation into financial transfers through foreign subsidiaries was announced, with the agency seeking to increase taxable income for four consecutive years. The company also faces a difficult regulatory environment in the Stars program, as management said the industry's 2026 scores were at their lowest level in approximately a decade, without providing a final forecast for UnitedHealth's results.