| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 65 | — | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 44 | 10.0% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 9 | -7.1% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 15 | — | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 15 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 62 | 56.3% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 37 | 8 | 3 | Bottom tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Frontier Group Holdings is a U.S. ultra-low-cost airline that operates a fleet of Airbus aircraft and builds its economic model around offering low base fares while generating additional revenue from ancillary services, loyalty programs, and higher-priced products. In Q2 fiscal 2026, total revenue per passenger reached approximately $131, up 20% year over year, and the load factor reached 80.3%, while the contribution from the co-branded Barclays card rose by approximately 30%, illustrating the role of pricing, ancillary services, and loyalty in diversifying revenue.
The company reported record quarterly revenue of $1.3 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 38% year over year, while revenue per available seat mile RASM increased 28% to $0.1152. Adjusted operating expenses were $1.3 billion, including $436 million for fuel at an average of $4.17 per gallon, while adjusted expenses excluding fuel and the early return agreement declined to $870 million, or $0.0742 per available seat mile after adjusting for stage length, down more than 10% sequentially.
The adjusted net loss in Q2 fiscal 2026 was approximately $22 million, or $0.10 per share, compared with prior guidance for a loss of between $0.45 and $0.60 per share. However, EDGAR data show that accounting losses persisted, with fiscal 2025 revenue of $3.7 billion and a net loss of $137 million, while revenue for the trailing twelve months through 2026 was approximately $3.8 billion and the net loss was $366 million. Frontier ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with liquidity of $1.16 billion, equivalent to 27% of adjusted trailing twelve-month revenue.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus is "Neutral," with a uniform price target of $7; the highest and lowest estimates both match this level, indicating the absence of an estimate range that would provide diverse views on value. The target is below the 52-week range high of $8.405 and above its low of $3.02, while no usable price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the losses, making the valuation more dependent on a successful return to profitability than on proven current earnings.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Frontier reported record revenue of $1.3 billion, up 38% year over year, while RASM increased 28% to $0.1152. Management attributed this to strong demand, improved revenue management, and reduced competitive capacity following Spirit's exit from overlapping markets. Total revenue per passenger rose 20% to approximately $131, with a load factor of 80.3%. As a result, the adjusted loss narrowed to $0.10 per share compared with prior guidance for a loss of between $0.45 and $0.60.
On July 29, 2026, management expected a return to profitability during the second half of fiscal 2026, but it provided quarterly ranges that do not guarantee a profit. Adjusted earnings per share guidance for Q3 fiscal 2026 ranges from a loss of $0.10 to a profit of $0.10. Guidance for Q4 fiscal 2026 ranges from breakeven to a profit of $0.20. These ranges assume an average fuel cost of $3.70 per gallon in Q3 and $3.45 in Q4.
Frontier ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with a fleet of 165 Airbus aircraft after taking delivery of two A320neo aircraft and four A321neo aircraft and returning 24 A320neo aircraft. As of July 29, 2026, the company was discussing the early termination of leases for 13 A320neo aircraft and the leasing of up to 10 newer, more efficient A321neo aircraft. If the agreements are finalized, the company expects the fleet not to exceed 168 aircraft by the end of Q1 fiscal 2027 and to remain at that level through the end of 2027. Management targets medium-term utilization of between 11 and 11.5 hours per day, compared with slightly more than 10 hours during Q3 fiscal 2026.
The contribution from the co-branded Barclays card to revenue rose by approximately 30% year over year during Q2 fiscal 2026. This came with record card acquisition activity and double-digit growth in cardholder spending during the first half of fiscal 2026. Frontier extended the partnership in late June 2026, and the mileage pre-purchase facility has a maximum capacity of $375 million, of which approximately $120 million had been used by the end of the quarter. Management views loyalty as one of its fastest-growing and highest-margin revenue sources, but it did not disclose its share of total revenue.
Frontier plans to introduce first-class seats during Q4 fiscal 2026 and early fiscal 2027. It expects to begin deploying high-speed Starlink service in early 2027, with completion of the fleetwide rollout potentially extending through the year. Management's confidence in demand for higher-priced products is based on a paid load factor exceeding 80% for the UpFront Plus product. Neither first class nor Starlink was generating revenue as of July 29, 2026, and management did not provide guidance on their financial value.
The main risks are continued losses, fuel volatility, competition, and execution of the fleet restructuring and new products. The company recorded a net loss of $366 million during the trailing twelve months through 2026, while fuel costs in Q2 fiscal 2026 were approximately $180 million above early February 2026 indicators. RASM growth also benefited from lower competitive capacity following Spirit's exit, although the market remains highly competitive and four airlines control more than 80% of domestic capacity. In addition, net insider sales totaled $87.1 million over the three months through the latest transaction on August 5, 2026, although this should be treated as a weak signal because such sales may be prearranged.
