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Ultrapar Participações S.A.
UGP

UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. · NYSE
Market Closed
7.45
▼ ⁦-1.46%⁩ (-0.11)
Market Cap$8.0B
Beta0.26
52w Low52w High
3.307.63
Last Week
⁦+8.44%⁩
Last Month
⁦+16.95%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+37.20%⁩
Last Year
⁦+123.72%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
94
12.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
78
11.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
67
15.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
63
1.4x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
19
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
99
86.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
21
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$7.45
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$6.85
⁦-8%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$5.80–$7.90⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$18
⁦+136%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$6.85–$18⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$6.85
⁦-8.1%⁩
Current Price $7.45·Median $6.85
Low
$5.80
High
$7.90
Current price
$7.45
Average target
$6.85
Street summary

Ultrapar targets steady with a cautious bias

Price expectations have not changed over the past 30 days; the average and median target remained at 6.85, with six analysts. The current price stands at 7.45, about 8.8% above consensus, while the target range extends from 5.8 to 7.9, reflecting a clear divergence in views and the absence of a recent broad-based revision to targets.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
9
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
28%
Analyst ratings over time9 analysts rating
3
3
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.89 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-26
    Goldman Sachs
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-17
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.11x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    5.74x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    11.8%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    11.6%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    22.7%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    8.4%
    7.8%72.1%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    15.9%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.44x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-13 data

Company Overview

Ultrapar Participações operates through a portfolio focused on fuel and gas distribution and logistics services: Ipiranga sells gasoline and diesel through a network of service stations, Ultragaz distributes packaged and bulk liquefied petroleum gas, while Ultracargo operates liquid storage and handling capacity and Hidrovias conducts waterborne transportation and handling operations. In Q2 FY2026, Ipiranga sold approximately 6.173 million cubic meters and its network reached 5,855 stations, while Ultracargo's installed capacity reached 1.156 million cubic meters.

In Q2 FY2026, Ultrapar recorded recurring adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of BRL 3.657 billion, and net income rose 46% year over year to a record BRL 1.677 billion. The group generated record operating cash flow of BRL 4.789 billion, or BRL 3.956 billion after excluding BRL 833 million from the discounting of supplier receivables, and leverage declined to 0.9 times with net debt of BRL 8.864 billion.

Ipiranga led the earnings mix in Q2 FY2026 with recurring adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of BRL 2.782 billion and a margin of BRL 451 per cubic meter. Ultragaz generated BRL 468 million, Ultracargo BRL 159 million with net revenue of BRL 265 million, and Hidrovias BRL 322 million. For FY2024, revenue totaled $133.5 billion, gross profit $9.7 billion, and net income $2.5 billion, compared with revenue of $126.0 billion, gross profit of $9.3 billion, and net income of $2.5 billion in FY2023.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Ipiranga's volumes rose 8% in Q2 FY2026 to 6.173 million cubic meters, supported by 10% diesel growth and a 6% increase in the Otto-cycle fuel segment, while its volume grew 8% in H1 FY2026 compared with market growth of 3%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Ipiranga doubled its diesel imports during H1 FY2026, supporting its ability to secure supplies amid disruption in refined-product markets and strengthening its competitive position.
  • The crackdown on irregular distributors reduced their share from 24.4% to 20%, while Ipiranga gained approximately 0.9 percentage points of market share and saw an increase in requests to convert stations to its brand.
  • Ultracargo increased its installed capacity by 8% to 1.156 million cubic meters, and cubic meters sold grew 19%, lifting Q2 FY2026 revenue by 7% to BRL 265 million and adjusted earnings by 13% to BRL 159 million.
  • Record operating cash flow enabled leverage to decline to 0.9 times, and the company approved distributions of BRL 1.85 billion for H1 FY2026, equivalent to BRL 1 per share, alongside a program to repurchase up to 18 million shares.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Ipiranga is demonstrating strong operating momentum and measurable market-share gains; its 8% volume growth in H1 FY2026 exceeded market growth of 3%, and it benefited from the declining share of irregular distributors.
    • +Q2 FY2026 net income reached a record BRL 1.677 billion, up 46% year over year, while strong cash flow reduced leverage to its lowest level since 2008 at 0.9 times.
    • +Ultracargo's expansions support the growth trajectory beyond fuel distribution, with installed capacity up 8%, volumes sold up 19%, and adjusted earnings up 13% in Q2 FY2026.
    • +The less leveraged balance sheet provides flexibility for dividend distributions, share repurchases, and disciplined investment; the company combined distributions of BRL 1.85 billion with a program to repurchase up to 18 million shares.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Management expects Ipiranga's margin in Q3 FY2026 to decline from the Q2 level of BRL 451 per cubic meter and approach its Q1 FY2026 level as the impact of short-term factors related to fuel-market disruptions fades.
    • −Supply and price volatility expose Ipiranga to liquidity and working-capital pressure; management estimated that a 10% change in fuel prices moves working capital by approximately BRL 300 million, while a lower import share increases the need for working-capital investment.
    • −Ultragaz's volumes declined 3% in Q2 FY2026, including 4% in packaged gas and 2% in bulk gas, due to weak demand, competition, and lower industrial demand, and management acknowledged losing market share outside its target segment.
    • −Hidrovias' consolidated volumes declined 14% in Q2 FY2026 and its recurring adjusted earnings fell 8% to BRL 322 million; even when limited to continuing operations, adjusted earnings declined 1% due to higher operating costs and expenses and weak fertilizer demand.
    • −Despite FY2024 revenue growth of approximately 6% to $133.5 billion, net income remained nearly flat at $2.5 billion and earnings per share declined from 2.2081 in FY2023 to 2.1141 in FY2024, indicating that revenue growth did not translate into comparable earnings-per-share growth.
    • −The valuation carries a risk of divergent expectations; the consensus target of $6.5 is close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $6.8, while analysts' targets range from $5.8 to $7.2, reflecting a meaningful difference in value estimates.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $6.5 and a target range of $5.8 to $7.2. The average target is only about 4% below the upper end of the 52-week range of $6.8, while the highest target exceeds that level; however, the decline in FY2024 earnings per share and nearly flat net income justify considering the conservative end of the target range.

    BuyAnalyst target: $6.5(-12.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What was the most important driver of UGP's Q2 FY2026 results?

    Ipiranga was the largest driver, generating recurring adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of BRL 2.782 billion and a margin of BRL 451 per cubic meter. Its volumes rose 8% to 6.173 million cubic meters, supported by a 10% increase in diesel and a 6% increase in Otto-cycle fuels. It also gained 0.9 percentage points of market share as the share of irregular distributors declined from 24.4% to 20%.

    Does Ultrapar expect Ipiranga's record margin to continue?

    The August 13, 2026 disclosures do not indicate that the Q2 FY2026 margin of BRL 451 per cubic meter will continue. Management expects the Q3 FY2026 margin to be below the Q2 level and closer to the Q1 FY2026 level. Management views the gains from combating irregular practices as structural, while part of the strong performance was related to short-term factors in petroleum supply markets.

    What is the state of Ultrapar's debt and liquidity?

    Ultrapar ended Q2 FY2026 with net debt of BRL 8.864 billion and leverage of 0.9 times, the lowest ratio since 2008. Operating cash flow totaled BRL 4.789 billion, compared with BRL 939 million in Q2 FY2025. After excluding BRL 833 million from the discounting of supplier receivables, operating cash flow would have been BRL 3.956 billion.

    What did Ultrapar return to shareholders in FY2026?

    The company approved distributions of BRL 1.85 billion related to H1 FY2026, equivalent to BRL 1 per share and a stated yield of 3.8%. It also approved a program to repurchase up to 18 million shares. Management linked the pace of future returns to business profitability and the availability of investment opportunities that deliver strong long-term value creation.

    How did the Ultragaz, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias businesses perform in Q2 FY2026?

    Ultragaz generated recurring adjusted earnings of BRL 468 million, up 6%, despite a 3% decline in volumes. Ultracargo recorded net revenue of BRL 265 million and adjusted earnings of BRL 159 million, with volumes sold up 19% and installed capacity up 8%. Hidrovias recorded recurring adjusted earnings of BRL 322 million, down 8%, while consolidated volumes declined 14%, mainly due to the sale of the coastal navigation business in November 2025.

    How did UGP's annual results develop between FY2023 and FY2024?

    Revenue increased from $126.0 billion in FY2023 to $133.5 billion in FY2024. Gross profit rose from $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion, while net income remained at approximately $2.5 billion in both years. In contrast, earnings per share declined from 2.2081 to 2.1141, so the growth in revenue and gross profit did not translate into earnings-per-share growth.