EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
UGI Corporation
UGI

UGI UGI Corporation

UGI Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
37.99
▼ ⁦-0.03%⁩ (-0.01)
Market Cap$8.1B
Beta0.95
52w Low52w High
31.6241.34
Last Week
⁦+0.24%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.15%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+10.08%⁩
Last Year
⁦+10.92%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall67
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 7/9Better than 67% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
86
12.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
39
-0.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
54
9.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
43
3.8x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
48
3.95%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
63
-1.0%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
66
2▼3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$38
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$45
⁦+17%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$43–$46⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$28
⁦-26%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.6⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$28–$45⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$44.50
⁦+17.1%⁩
Current Price $37.99·Median $44.50
Low
$43.00
High
$46.00
Current price
$37.99
Average target
$44.50
Street summary

Higher Target and Improved Rating with Limited Confidence

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose from 43 to 44.5 over the past 7 and 30 days, an increase of 1.5 or 3.49%, while remaining stable over the past day. At a current price of 38, the consensus indicates a calculated upside of approximately 17.1%. The current range is between 43 and 46, but coverage is limited to a single analyst, so the differences between the two bounds do not reflect a broad dispersion that can be relied upon; rather, the depth of the consensus remains limited.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+3.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
8%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.67 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-09
    Jefferies
    HoldBuy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-11
    Wells Fargo
    Equal-WeightOverweight· $46.00
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-04-30
    Jefferies
    BuyHold· $40.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.71x
    4.50x36.01x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    10.22x
    4.35x34.77x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.55x
    3.07x24.54x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.4%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.5%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    56.5%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    46.7%
    9.8%69.4%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    9.0%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.84x
    1.28x10.25x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    4.0%
    1.4%6.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    50.2%
    35.0%95.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

UGI Corporation operates through a diversified energy portfolio comprising regulated natural gas utilities, Midstream & Marketing, international liquefied petroleum gas distribution through UGI International, and domestic propane distribution through AmeriGas. The utilities rely on regulated base rates and investments in network safety and modernization, while the liquefied petroleum gas businesses generate revenue from fuel sales and customer service, and the transportation and marketing business benefits from natural gas capacity and infrastructure management. During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, the company directed approximately 76% of its capital expenditures to its natural gas businesses and added more than 8,500 new heating customers in its regulated utility territories.

According to the latest available EDGAR filings, UGI recorded revenue of 2.7 billion dollars, net income of 520 million dollars, and earnings per share of 2.33 dollars in fiscal Q2 2026, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 19.3%; the data did not include a gross profit figure. Revenue for the trailing twelve-month period in 2026 was approximately 7.5 billion dollars, with net income of 641 million dollars, compared with revenue of 7.3 billion dollars and net income of 678 million dollars in fiscal 2025.

In fiscal Q3 2026, reported segment EBIT was 58 million dollars versus 72 million dollars in the comparable period, as Utilities EBIT increased by 10 million dollars and Midstream & Marketing by three million dollars, while UGI International declined by two million dollars and AmeriGas declined by 25 million dollars. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, reported segment EBIT totaled 1.187 billion dollars, an increase of only three million dollars, while adjusted diluted earnings per share declined to 3.17 dollars from 3.55 dollars due to the absence of investment tax credits realized in the comparable period and higher interest expense.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

KKR submitted a 9 billion dollar offer to acquire UGI on August 18, 2026, an event that could drive the stock’s valuation because it places a stated price on the utilities and energy portfolio, but the data does not indicate that the transaction has been completed.
  • On July 31, 2026, administrative law judges recommended approval without modification of the 65 million dollar gas rate case settlement; if approved by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, an increase of approximately 40 million dollars will take effect in October 2026, followed by an increase of approximately 25 million dollars in October 2027, with a stay-out period preventing a new rate increase request until January 2029.
  • On August 6, 2026, UGI reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range of 2.75 to 2.90 dollars, while management maintained its target for compound annual earnings per share growth of between 5% and 7% through fiscal 2029 despite delays in some Midstream investments.
  • Consolidated leverage declined to 3.8 times, while AmeriGas leverage reached approximately 4.3 times, its lowest point in ten years, after AmeriGas reduced net debt by approximately 270 million dollars compared with the previous quarter. Refinancing transactions also reduced annual borrowing costs by approximately 30 million dollars, and AmeriGas generated more than 100 million dollars in free cash flow during fiscal 2026 through the date of the call.
  • The AmeriGas turnaround plan showed tangible operational improvement compared with fiscal 2024, with lost-time injuries down 50%, recordable injuries down 44%, run-outs down 21%, zero-fill events down 17%, and average net promoter score up 63%. The company aims to begin meaningful cash distributions from AmeriGas to the parent company in fiscal 2027, after using fiscal 2026 cash flow to continue reducing debt.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The regulated utilities provide a growth base supported by network investments and the addition of more than 8,500 heating customers during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, while previous base gas rate increases raised Utilities EBIT by 10 million dollars in fiscal Q3 2026.
    • +The proposed 65 million dollar rate settlement could support recovery of network modernization costs in two stages in October 2026 and October 2027, while the DSIC allows additional recovery in the latter part of the stay-out period extending through January 2029 if the settlement receives regulatory approval.
    • +UGI International achieved an EBITDA margin of 23% and approximately 95% free cash flow conversion, with ownership of more than 90% of its tanks and the number-one distributor position in key markets; management also believes the market for conversions from heating oil to liquefied petroleum gas is approximately four times the size of the currently addressable liquefied petroleum gas market.
    • +The capital structure improved through an approximately 270 million dollar reduction in AmeriGas net debt and a decline in its leverage to 4.3 times, while management expects to approach less than four times by the end of fiscal 2026 and begin transferring distributions to the parent company in fiscal 2027.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −AmeriGas continues to experience customer and volume contraction; retail gallons declined 10% in fiscal Q3 2026 and fell 6% after adjusting for the impact of weather and excluding the Hawaii sale, while EBIT declined by 25 million dollars and net customer attrition remained at approximately 2% since the beginning of fiscal 2026.
    • −Performance remains highly sensitive to weather and seasonality, as April 2026 temperatures were 16% warmer than in the comparable period, and the company estimated the negative weather impact on earnings per share since the beginning of fiscal 2026 at approximately 0.05 dollars compared with the comparable period and 0.11 dollars compared with normal weather patterns.
    • −Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 declined to 3.17 dollars from 3.55 dollars, despite broadly stable segment EBIT, due to the absence of investment tax credits and higher interest expense; this shows that operational improvement is not fully translating into shareholder earnings.
    • −Midstream growth was delayed by the deferral of growth investments and lower Appalachian production, and management acknowledged that the segment’s growth has become more concentrated in the middle and end of the plan horizon; the two well-pad expansions begin early and late in fiscal 2027, while the Auburn Pipeline is expected near the end of fiscal 2027.
    • −Retail volumes at UGI International declined by 10% in fiscal Q3 2026 due to previous exits in Austria and Eastern Europe, while liquefied petroleum gas divestitures and warmer weather also contributed to a year-over-year decline of approximately 40 million dollars compared with the comparable period during the first nine months of fiscal 2026.
    • −The proposed 65 million dollar gas rate increase remains subject to approval by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, so the two revenue tranches scheduled for October 2026 and October 2027 cannot be considered secured before the regulatory decision is issued.

    Valuation

    The average analyst consensus price target is 43 dollars, within a range of 40 to 46 dollars, with a consensus Buy recommendation. The average target is above the 52-week range high of 41.34 dollars, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 11.3%, and the 52-week range low is 31.62 dollars. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, while the decline in adjusted earnings per share and delays in some Midstream growth are offset by the potential positive valuation impact of KKR’s 9 billion dollar offer and the proposed rate settlement.

    BuyAnalyst target: $43(+13.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What are UGI’s most important businesses that determine the stock’s performance?

    UGI combines regulated natural gas utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas. The company directed approximately 76% of capital expenditures during the first nine months of fiscal 2026 to its natural gas businesses and added more than 8,500 new heating customers. In fiscal Q3 2026, Utilities EBIT increased by 10 million dollars and Midstream & Marketing by three million dollars, but the 25 million dollar decline at AmeriGas weighed on the consolidated result.

    What is the impact of KKR’s 9 billion dollar offer on UGI?

    News on August 18, 2026 reported that KKR submitted a 9 billion dollar offer to acquire UGI. The offer establishes a stated reference value for the company’s natural gas and electricity distribution assets and could serve as a catalyst for the stock’s valuation. The data does not include confirmation that the acquisition has been completed or final details regarding its terms, so the impact remains tied to the progress of the offer as reported in the news.

    How did AmeriGas perform in fiscal Q3 2026?

    AmeriGas EBIT declined by 25 million dollars, and retail gallons fell 10% due to warmer weather and continued customer attrition. After adjusting for the impact of weather and excluding the Hawaii sale, gallons declined 6% in the quarter and 2% during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, while net customer attrition was approximately 2%. Conversely, the average net promoter score increased by 63% compared with fiscal 2024, lost-time injuries declined 50%, and AmeriGas generated more than 100 million dollars in free cash flow during fiscal 2026 through the date of the call.

    What does the 65 million dollar gas rate settlement mean?

    On July 31, 2026, administrative law judges recommended approval without modification of UGI Utilities’ proposed settlement. If approved by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, the settlement permits an increase of approximately 40 million dollars in October 2026, followed by approximately 25 million dollars in October 2027, with a stay-out period preventing a new rate increase request until January 2029. The settlement includes a pilot program to relieve debt for customers with incomes between 150% and 300% of the federal poverty level, in addition to guaranteeing that at least 1.5 million dollars is made available annually for the Operation Share program.

    Is UGI still committed to its fiscal 2026 guidance and long-term growth?

    On August 6, 2026, the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance of between 2.75 and 2.90 dollars. It also maintained its target for compound annual earnings per share growth of between 5% and 7% through fiscal 2029. However, management explained that Midstream growth has become more dependent on the middle and end of the plan horizon, with well-pad expansions and the Auburn Pipeline expected during fiscal 2027.

    How has the debt position of UGI and AmeriGas improved?

    UGI ended fiscal Q3 2026 with consolidated leverage of 3.8 times, while AmeriGas leverage was approximately 4.3 times, its lowest level in ten years. The company reduced AmeriGas net debt by approximately 270 million dollars compared with the previous quarter and replaced a portion of notes bearing 9.375% interest with new debt bearing 6.875% interest. Management expects to approach leverage of less than four times by the end of fiscal 2026 and begin meaningful cash distributions from AmeriGas to the parent company in fiscal 2027.