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Stocks
UFP Industries, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall56
Balanced — near the middle of the marketValue TrapF 4/9Better than 56% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
79
18.5x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
10
-4.7%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
43
6.5%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
90
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
73
1.74%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
21
-11.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
68
4▲3Top tier
UFPI

UFPI UFP Industries, Inc.

UFP Industries, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
80.56
▲ ⁦+0.45%⁩ (+0.36)
Market Cap$4.6B
Beta1.24
52w Low52w High
77.89118.00
Last Week
⁦-2.83%⁩
Last Month
⁦-14.33%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.38%⁩
Last Year
⁦-21.07%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$81
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$99
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$90–$108⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$80
⁦-0%⁩
Sees it fairly priced
⁦9.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$80–$99⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$99.00
⁦+22.9%⁩
Current Price $80.56·Median $99.00
Low
$90.00
High
$108.00
Current price
$80.56
Average target
$99.00
Street summary

UFP Industries Stock Price Forecast Analysis

UFPI stock shows complete stability in the average price target at 97.5 dollars across timeframes (1, 7, 30 days), with a positive price gap compared to the current price (80.54 dollars). However, the presence of only one analyst in recent data reflects a weakness in current analytical coverage, which reduces the reliability of the Consensus and increases uncertainty regarding future market trends.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.60
Buy
Analyst coverage
5
Buy conviction
60%
Mixed
Target dispersion
22%
Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.40 → 3.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-11
    Stifel Nicolaus
    —· $87.00
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-05-05
    BMO Capital
    Market PerformOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-04-20
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform· $108.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.48x
    4.94x39.51x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.15x
    3.70x29.59x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.74x
    2.62x20.92x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.6%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -4.7%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -24.3%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    16.1%
    7.6%58.9%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    6.5%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    1.7%
    0.2%5.5%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    32.1%
    4.7%147.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

UFP Industries operates through three interconnected segments—Retail, Packaging, and Construction—and generates revenue from treated wood products, branded decking and railing products, structural and protective packaging solutions and pallets, and building components for residential and commercial projects and concrete forming. Its model relies on increasing the share of value-added products such as Deckorators, Surestone, TrueFrame, and Arris, alongside design, engineering, nationwide distribution, and off-site manufacturing. The diversification of segments and end markets helps balance growth in decking, packaging, and commercial business against weakness in new residential construction.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, net sales reached $1.88 billion, up 2.6% year over year, driven by 1% organic unit growth and a 2% contribution from acquisitions, while overall pricing remained stable. Reported Retail segment sales were $819 million, up 4%, Packaging sales were $458 million, up 7%, while Construction sales declined 4% to $523 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell by $20 million to $154 million, and the margin contracted to 8.2% from 9.5% due to the sharp increase in flatbed trucking costs.

Operating performance was mixed across segments in Q2 fiscal 2026; decking sales rose 59%, Structural Packaging volumes grew 8%, and Protective Packaging volumes grew 15%, compared with an organic decline of 3% in Site-Built units and 5% in Factory-Built units. New product sales increased 33% to account for 8.4% of sales, compared with 6.5% a year earlier. By contrast, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for Packaging fell by $11 million to $28 million, while the corresponding figure for Construction declined by $9 million to $36 million, and adjusted Retail earnings remained stable compared with the prior year.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company returned to year-over-year organic growth in Q2 fiscal 2026 for the first time since Q3 fiscal 2022; organic units rose 1% and net sales increased 2.6%, despite many end markets remaining stable or under pressure.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Deckorators is driving operating momentum, with decking sales increasing 59%, including 37% growth in Surestone mineral-based products and 85% growth in wood-plastic composites; the MoistureShield acquisition contributed 51% of the growth in wood-plastic composites and 23% of total composite decking growth.
  • Surestone backlog reached $30 million at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, with demand continuing to exceed current production capacity and productivity improving at the Selma and Buffalo plants. Management is targeting $100 million of growth in decking and railing sales during fiscal 2026, after achieving approximately $20 million from the beginning of the year through the end of the quarter.
  • The Packaging segment is growing through share gains and contracts; Structural Packaging volumes rose 8%, national accounts business increased by approximately 25%, and PalletOne volumes increased 9% while Protective Packaging volumes rose 15%. The new Indiana and Nevada facilities support the plan to increase production and market share and improve profitability in fiscal 2027.
  • UFP Industries spent $122 million to acquire MoistureShield, Berry Pallets, and John Rock, with the aim of adding capacity, filling geographic gaps, and expanding service capabilities. At the end of June 2026, the company had approximately $600 million in cash and total liquidity of approximately $1.9 billion, with no outstanding borrowings under the revolving credit facility.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Portfolio diversification provides meaningful operating protection; in Q2 fiscal 2026, growth in ProWood, Deckorators, Structural Packaging, concrete forming, and commercial business, excluding the transportation impact, offset declines in Site-Built and PalletOne.
    • +The weighting of value-added products is increasing, as new product sales grew 33% and reached 8.4% of sales compared with 6.5% a year earlier, supported by Surestone, TrueFrame, and the launch of Arris in mid-July 2026.
    • +The company has substantial financial flexibility to fund growth and return capital; liquidity was approximately $1.9 billion at the end of June 2026, and it repurchased $142 million of shares from the beginning of the year at an average price of $84.95, while also raising the quarterly dividend by 3% to $0.36 per share.
    • +Management continues to improve the cost base and expects to achieve or exceed the remaining $25 million of its $60 million total cost-reduction program. It also expects Deckorators profitability to improve in the second half of fiscal 2026 as volumes rise and the Buffalo and Selma plants approach optimal capacity.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Exposure to new residential construction remains the largest operating weakness; Construction sales declined 4% to $523 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, organic Site-Built units fell 3%, and Factory-Built units declined 5%, while the segment's adjusted earnings fell by $9 million to $36 million.
    • −Transportation capacity constraints related to regulatory changes and tighter enforcement drove spot freight rates up by more than 30%, excluding fuel, during Q2 fiscal 2026. Annual transportation costs net of surcharges increased by $27 million, or 1.6% of sales, contributing to the decline in the adjusted earnings margin to 8.2% from 9.5%.
    • −Site-Built and PalletOne face competitive pressures that limit cost pass-through; pricing declined 3% in the Construction segment and 1% in Packaging, while input costs remained elevated and difficult to offset in a weak market. Adjusted Packaging earnings fell by $11 million to $28 million, also affected by unabsorbed costs at the new Protective Packaging facilities.
    • −Achieving the $100 million decking and railing growth target in fiscal 2026 entails execution risk because growth from the beginning of the year was only approximately $20 million, while Surestone had a $30 million backlog and demand remained above production capacity. Railing sales also declined 17% following the loss of a distributor at Ultra Aluminum, increasing reliance on improving plant productivity and the railing attachment rate to decking sales.
    • −Management kept its fiscal 2026 outlook unchanged, but now expects demand for the remainder of the year to be near the low end of its previous range, which assumed flat to slightly lower units in each segment. It also reduced the capital expenditure plan to $175–200 million, $125 million below the original plan, with some projects paused until market conditions improve.
    • −Valuation poses a risk if housing and transportation pressures persist, because the average analyst target of $99 is approximately 16% below the 52-week range high of $118, and even the highest target of $108 remains below that high. This indicates that a return to the upper end of the range would require results that exceed current consensus assumptions.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $99 and a target range of $90 to $108. The average is approximately 27% above the 52-week range low of $77.89 but approximately 16% below its high of $118, while the difference between the highest and lowest targets is $18. This range reflects a recovery opportunity contingent on Deckorators growth and Packaging gains, but leaves limited room for a return to the 52-week high if transportation and new residential construction pressures persist.

    BuyAnalyst target: $99(+22.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove UFPI's growth in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Net sales rose 2.6% to $1.88 billion, with 1% organic unit growth and a 2% contribution from acquisitions. This was the first year-over-year organic increase since Q3 fiscal 2022. Momentum was driven by Deckorators, Structural Packaging, Protective Packaging, concrete forming, and commercial business, while Site-Built and businesses related to new housing remained under pressure.

    How important are Deckorators and Surestone to UFPI's growth thesis?

    Decking sales increased 59% in Q2 fiscal 2026, with Surestone growing 37% and wood-plastic composites growing 85%. Surestone backlog reached approximately $30 million, and the Buffalo plant began shipping products in April 2026 as productivity improved in Selma. Management is targeting $100 million of growth in decking and railing sales during fiscal 2026, compared with approximately $20 million achieved from the beginning of the year through the end of the quarter.

    How are transportation costs affecting UFP Industries' profitability?

    Spot freight rates increased by more than 30%, excluding fuel, during Q2 fiscal 2026 following a contraction in carrier capacity. Annual transportation costs increased by $31 million in total and $27 million after pricing recoveries and fuel surcharges. As a result, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization declined to $154 million from $174 million, and the margin fell to 8.2% from 9.5%.

    What is UFPI's liquidity and capital allocation position?

    The company had approximately $600 million in cash and total liquidity of approximately $1.9 billion at the end of June 2026, with no outstanding borrowings under the revolving credit facility. It invested $122 million in the acquisitions of MoistureShield, Berry Pallets, and John Rock, and repurchased $142 million of shares from the beginning of the year at an average price of $84.95. The board also approved a quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share payable in September 2026, and a $300 million share repurchase program that remains in effect through April 2027.

    What are UFPI's main risks for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

    Management expects demand for the remainder of fiscal 2026 to be near the low end of its previous outlook range, with continued weakness in new residential construction and pallet production. Construction sales declined 4% in Q2, while organic Site-Built units fell 3%, pricing remained competitive, and input costs remained elevated. In addition, the company expects energy and transportation costs to remain above prior-year levels, although the transportation impact is expected to gradually ease from its Q2 peak.

    How does the analyst outlook for UFPI stock compare with its annual range?

    The stock has a “Buy” consensus, with an average price target of $99 within a range of $90 to $108. This average is approximately 27% above the 52-week range low of $77.89 but approximately 16% below the high of $118. Therefore, analyst targets assume a recovery from the lower levels but do not assume a full return to the top of the annual range amid current housing and transportation pressures.