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Stocks
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall72
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 8/9DistressBetter than 72% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
92
10.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
62
8.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
75
8.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
49
2.2x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
19
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
56
24.3%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
53
14▲3Around median
UAL

UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
109.82
▲ ⁦+3.13%⁩ (+3.33)
Market Cap$35.6B
Beta1.29
52w Low52w High
84.64138.77
Last Week
⁦+1.07%⁩
Last Month
⁦-11.26%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.74%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.51%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$110
Analyst target · 15 analysts
$160
⁦+46%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$130–$190⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$85
⁦-22%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.1⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$85–$160⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 15 analysts setting price target
$157.44
⁦+43.4%⁩
Current Price $109.82·Median $160.00
Low
$130.00
High
$190.00
Current price
$109.82
Average target
$157.44
Street summary

A slight decline in consensus while the outlook remains positive

UAL’s consensus price target fell to 157.44 from 159.11 over one day, and to 157.44 from 160.89 over 7 and 30 days, declining by 1.05% and 2.14%, respectively. The number of analysts remained unchanged at 15, indicating that the decline reflects lowered estimates rather than a broadening of the coverage base. Consensus remains above the current price of 109.82, while the target range is between 130 and 190, reflecting notable divergence in valuations.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
25
Buy conviction
92%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
55%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time25 analysts rating
4
19
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.12 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-19
    Jefferies
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.27x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.82x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.52x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.5%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    6.6%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    65.1%
    8.6%54.6%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    8.1%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.16x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.35
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-16 data

Company Overview

United Airlines Holdings operates a global airline network that generates revenue primarily from passenger transportation within the United States and across international markets, with additional sources from premium cabins, cargo, the MileagePlus loyalty program, and co-branded credit cards. In fiscal Q2 2026, domestic passenger revenue increased 20.3%, while international PRASM grew 12%, led by the Pacific at 14%, followed by the Atlantic at 12.1% and Latin America at 10.7%. Premium cabin revenue also increased 16.4%, cargo revenue 22.6%, and loyalty revenue 11.3%, demonstrating that growth did not depend on a single market or product within the operating business.

Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue reached approximately $17.7 billion, up nearly 16% year over year, and the financial statements filed with EDGAR reported net income of $805 million and diluted earnings per share of $2.46, implying a calculated net margin of approximately 4.5%. On the adjusted basis used by management during the call, earnings per share were $1.99 and the pre-tax margin was 4.8%, despite a $2.3 billion year-over-year negative fuel impact. By comparison, the company generated fiscal 2025 revenue of $59.1 billion, net income of $3.4 billion, and earnings per share of $10.20.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Pricing power and demand are the most immediate drivers of results: TRASM increased 12.1% in fiscal Q2 2026, with a slight improvement in load factor, and management expects RASM growth in both fiscal Q3 and Q4 2026 to exceed the fiscal Q2 level, while booked Q4 yield was tracking 19% year-over-year growth.
  • Business travel supports the higher-yielding mix; realized contracted travel revenue increased 27% and bookings rose 30% in fiscal Q2 2026, led by the technology, financial services, and professional services sectors. Corporate travel remains five points below its pre-pandemic share of load factor, with an approximately 80% yield premium over leisure travel, leaving additional room for growth if the recovery continues.
  • The MileagePlus loyalty and card economy is expanding alongside air transportation; new co-branded card accounts increased 22% to a fiscal Q2 record, card spending rose 14%, and MileagePlus enrollment increased 9%. Management said underlying loyalty revenue growth would have exceeded 13% without a nonrecurring settlement related to a prior period.
  • United is accelerating the rollout of free Starlink service after installing it on approximately 450 aircraft and is targeting nearly 1,000 equipped aircraft by the end of 2026. Connectivity satisfaction scores on aircraft equipped with the service were more than double those of aircraft using other Wi-Fi systems, supporting the strategy of acquiring customers and strengthening their loyalty.
  • On August 25, 2026, United announced the largest international expansion in its history, including the addition of ten new cities to its 2027 global schedule. This aligns with the company's plan to grow internationally faster than domestically, while international PRASM increased 12% during fiscal Q2 2026.
  • Management expects earnings per share of between $2.50 and $3.50 in fiscal Q3 2026 and between $9 and $11 for fiscal 2026. It also targets a return to underlying CASM-ex growth of between 2% and 3% in fiscal 2027, supported by larger aircraft and the retirement of at least 80 older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The results demonstrate United's ability to pass a meaningful portion of the fuel shock through to prices; it recovered approximately 50% of the increase in fuel expense in fiscal Q2 2026 and expects to recover 80% to 90% in Q3, followed by full recovery in Q4, without observing any measurable impact from higher prices on demand as of the July 16, 2026 call.
  • +Diversified growth across domestic and international markets, premium cabins, cargo, and loyalty reduces the dependence of quarterly performance on a single revenue channel; fiscal Q2 2026 growth rates ranged from 11.3% for loyalty to 22.6% for cargo, alongside 20.3% domestic revenue growth.
  • +Product and fleet investments could increase revenue per seat and reduce unit costs; Starlink service is on track to reach nearly 1,000 aircraft by the end of 2026, while premium seats will grow faster than the main cabin through the introduction of XLR and Coastliner and the expansion of larger aircraft during 2027.
  • +United ended fiscal Q2 2026 with $19.6 billion of available liquidity and has repaid approximately $1 billion of older aircraft debt and higher-cost PSP debt since the beginning of the quarter. Management plans to reduce net debt to less than twice earnings during 2027 while continuing to target investment-grade credit metrics.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

Analyst consensus rates UAL shares as “Buy,” with an average price target of $160.89 and a wide range of $130 to $190. The average is approximately 15.9% above the 52-week range high of $138.77, while the lowest target falls within the 52-week range of $84.64 to $138.77, reflecting meaningful divergence in estimates of the effects of fuel, margins, and execution. The available data does not provide a valid comparable price-to-earnings multiple, so the stock's valuation here is based on analyst targets and expected fiscal 2026 earnings per share of between $9 and $11, balancing revenue strength against fuel and cost risks.

BuyAnalyst target: $160.89(+46.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were the key United Airlines results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Revenue reached $17.7 billion, up nearly 16% year over year. EDGAR filings reported net income of $805 million and earnings per share of $2.46, while adjusted earnings per share in the July 16, 2026 call were approximately $1.99, with a pre-tax margin of 4.8%. TRASM increased 12.1%, with a slight improvement in load factor, despite a $2.3 billion year-over-year fuel impact.

What is United Airlines' earnings outlook for fiscal 2026?

Management expects earnings per share of between $9 and $11 in fiscal 2026 and between $2.50 and $3.50 in fiscal Q3 2026. The Q3 outlook assumes an all-in fuel price of approximately $3.69 after fuel prices increased 15% to 20% in early July 2026. Management said that a return of fuel prices to their previous levels would have pushed earnings above the upper end of both ranges.

How do MileagePlus and premium cabins contribute to UAL's growth?

Loyalty revenue increased 11.3% in fiscal Q2 2026, with new co-branded card accounts growing 22% and card spending rising 14%. MileagePlus enrollments increased 9%, five points faster than capacity growth. During the same period, premium cabin revenue increased 16.4%, while PRASM in Polaris and Premium Plus grew 13.6%.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Fuel remains the largest direct risk to earnings; higher fuel costs caused a $2.3 billion year-over-year negative impact in fiscal Q2 2026, and management said its annual cost had become approximately $6 billion higher than anticipated at the beginning of the year. A 15% to 20% increase in fuel prices in early July 2026 also added pressure equivalent to $1.12 in earnings per share and prompted the company to maintain its fiscal 2026 outlook at $9 to $11 rather than indicating that it would exceed the upper end.
  • −Margins face simultaneous pressure from labor, maintenance, airport fees, and capacity reductions; CASM-ex increased 6.1% in fiscal Q2 2026, and management expects cost pressure to peak in Q3. The targeted improvement to CASM-ex growth of between 2% and 3% in fiscal 2027 depends on efficiently executing the increase in average aircraft size and fleet renewal.
  • −Operational limits could constrain network growth at key hubs; the FAA extended flight caps in Chicago and Newark for one year, and United plans to operate 650 daily flights in Chicago within the approved cap. In San Francisco, a change to the approach path reduced landing rates, and management did not confirm whether previous rates could be fully restored.
  • −United raised $3.7 billion of new debt during fiscal Q2 2026 at an equivalent fixed rate in the low 5% range to hedge against persistently high oil prices. Although it intends to use the proceeds to repay higher-cost debt and finance aircraft purchases with cash, the additional borrowing increases the balance sheet's sensitivity to interest rates and execution until the repayments and targeted leverage reduction are achieved.
  • −Competition remains intense, particularly in Los Angeles, where management expects four large U.S. carriers to continue holding similar market shares in the coming years. Management also acknowledged that competitive capacity decisions could affect the commodity portion of the business, even though it believes customer loyalty limits the severity of that impact on United.
  • −Insider data provides a strong selling signal during the three months ended August 25, 2026, with net sales of $14.8 million across eight sales and no purchases. However, insider sales may have been prearranged and are not sufficient on their own to establish a change in the company's fundamental outlook.
Why is Starlink important to United Airlines' strategy?

United had installed Starlink on approximately 450 aircraft as of the July 16, 2026 call and is targeting nearly 1,000 equipped aircraft by the end of 2026. Wi-Fi satisfaction scores on aircraft equipped with the service were more than double those of aircraft using other connectivity systems. Management believes free high-speed connectivity can support market-share gains, particularly among premium-cabin customers, as part of its brand-loyalty strategy.

What is United Airlines' international growth and fleet plan for 2027?

On August 25, 2026, the company announced the addition of ten new cities to its 2027 global schedule in the largest international expansion in its history. It plans to grow internationally faster than domestically after PRASM increased 14% in the Pacific, 12.1% in the Atlantic, and 10.7% in Latin America in fiscal Q2 2026. Premium capacity will also grow faster than main-cabin capacity through the deployment of XLR and Coastliner, alongside the retirement of at least 80 older aircraft during 2027.

What are the largest risks facing UAL shares?

The most significant financial risk is fuel, as management said its annual cost had become approximately $6 billion higher than anticipated at the beginning of fiscal 2026. CASM-ex increased 6.1% in fiscal Q2 2026 due to labor agreements and capacity reductions, with cost pressure expected to peak in Q3. FAA caps in Chicago and Newark and landing constraints in San Francisco also limit operational flexibility, while the company added $3.7 billion of new debt to strengthen liquidity during oil-price volatility.