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Stocks
Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall71
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 4/9Better than 71% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
40
28.9x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
55
9.9%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
56
16.7%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
77
1.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
60
1.50%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
62
20.7%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
72
20▲3Top tier
TXRH

TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
181.22
▲ ⁦+0.09%⁩ (+0.17)
Market Cap$11.9B
Beta0.79
52w Low52w High
153.82216.30
Last Week
⁦-4.15%⁩
Last Month
⁦-12.65%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+6.01%⁩
Last Year
⁦+5.02%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$181
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$220
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$175–$235⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$112
⁦-38%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$112–$220⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$213.85
⁦+18.0%⁩
Current Price $181.22·Median $220.00
Low
$175.00
High
$235.00
Current price
$181.22
Average target
$213.85
Street summary

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

TXRH stock has seen a notable upward revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising by 9.77% from $193 to $211.86. This change reflects an improvement in analyst outlook, although these estimates have remained unchanged over the last week. The stock is currently trading at $204.4, which is slightly below the average price target ($216), with a dispersion in estimates between a high of $235 and a low of $175, indicating a degree of uncertainty regarding the fair valuation.

As of 2026-08-17
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.54
Buy
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Target dispersion
33%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
2
12
13
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.47 → 3.54
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Benchmark
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    TD Cowen
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    28.95x
    4.56x36.49x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    25.66x
    3.79x30.29x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    16.84x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.5%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.9%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -4.6%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    12.9%
    12.0%66.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    16.7%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.16x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.5%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    43.5%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-07 data

Company Overview

Texas Roadhouse operates a restaurant network that includes the flagship Texas Roadhouse brand alongside Bubba's 33 and Jaggers. It generates revenue primarily from in-restaurant food and beverage sales and To-Go pickup orders, with additional contributions from restaurants operated by franchise partners domestically and internationally. In Q1 of fiscal 2026, average weekly sales were approximately $180 thousand at Texas Roadhouse, more than $125 thousand at Bubba's 33, and $71 thousand at Jaggers, showing that the flagship brand remains the largest driver of business volume.

In Q1 of fiscal 2026, revenue exceeded $1.6 billion, up 12.8% year over year, driven by a 6.8% increase in average weekly sales and a 5.7% increase in restaurant operating weeks. Comparable restaurant sales rose 7.1%, supported by 4.5% growth in guest traffic and a 2.6% increase in average check, while To-Go orders represented 14.6% of average weekly sales, or more than $25 thousand out of a total exceeding $174 thousand.

Net income reached $126.0 million and diluted earnings per share were $1.87 in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with earnings per share growing 9.6% year over year. Restaurant margin dollars rose 10.5% to $264 million, but restaurant margin declined 36 basis points to 16.3% of sales, as food and beverage costs increased to 35.3% due to commodity inflation of 6.2%, while labor costs improved by 46 basis points to 32.9% and other operating expenses improved by 36 basis points to 14.0%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Demand remained strong after Q1 of fiscal 2026, with comparable restaurant sales rising 6.5% during the first five weeks of Q2 of fiscal 2026, guest traffic growing approximately 3.5%, and average weekly sales reaching $174 thousand.
  • Management lowered its fiscal 2026 commodity inflation forecast from approximately 7% to a range of 6%–7% after recording 6.2% in Q1, but it still expects inflation to peak between 7% and 8% in Q2 before declining to the low end of guidance or below it in the second half of the year.
  • The company is targeting the opening of approximately 35 company-owned restaurants during fiscal 2026. It opened four Texas Roadhouse restaurants in Q1 and expects up to nine openings across its brands in Q2, so a larger share of openings will be concentrated in the second half of the year.
  • The To-Go channel supports incremental growth, exceeding $25 thousand per week and accounting for 14.6% of weekly restaurant sales in Q1 of fiscal 2026. Management says digital kitchen technology, an upgraded in-app ordering experience, and pickup windows help restaurants handle a higher volume of off-premise orders without harming the dine-in experience.
  • The company implemented a 1.9% menu price increase at the beginning of Q2 of fiscal 2026, raising the pricing contribution to 3.6% in Q2 and Q3, compared with 3.1% in Q1. These increases are intended to offset beef inflation while maintaining a pricing approach that management described as conservative relative to steakhouse competitors.
  • The company ended Q1 of fiscal 2026 with $215 million in cash and generated $259 million in operating cash flow, supporting a fiscal 2026 capital expenditure plan of approximately $400 million and funding restaurant openings and capital returns to shareholders.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +In Q1 of fiscal 2026, Texas Roadhouse achieved simultaneous growth of 12.8% in revenue, 4.5% in comparable restaurant traffic, and 9.6% in diluted earnings per share, reflecting growth driven by an increase in guest counts rather than price increases alone.
  • +The plan to open approximately 35 company-owned restaurants in fiscal 2026 provides an additional growth path beyond sales from existing restaurants, while franchise partners opened one domestic Jaggers restaurant and one international Texas Roadhouse restaurant in Q1, with plans to open up to nine additional locations during the remainder of the year.
  • +Labor efficiency improved despite a 3.8% increase in wages and other labor costs, as labor hours grew by only approximately 35% of comparable traffic growth, and labor costs declined 46 basis points to 32.9% of sales in Q1 of fiscal 2026.
  • +To-Go growth provides additional leverage for margin dollars as long as restaurant dining rooms remain full and continue growing. Management explained that this channel is less labor-intensive and may be slightly positive for the restaurant margin percentage, in addition to its significant effect on margin dollars.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $213.85, within a wide range of $175 to $235, while the average target is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $153.83–$216.30. The “Neutral” consensus reflects a balance between revenue and traffic growth and the restaurant opening plan on one hand, and pressure from beef inflation and restaurant margin contraction on the other. The data does not include a valid earnings multiple for an additional comparison.

HoldAnalyst target: $213.85(+18.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Texas Roadhouse's growth in Q1 of fiscal 2026?

Revenue rose 12.8% and exceeded $1.6 billion, driven by a 6.8% increase in average weekly sales and a 5.7% increase in restaurant operating weeks. Comparable restaurant sales grew 7.1%, supported by a 4.5% increase in traffic and a 2.6% rise in average check. Net income reached $126.0 million, while diluted earnings per share rose 9.6% to $1.87.

How are beef prices affecting TXRH's results during fiscal 2026?

Commodity inflation reached 6.2% in Q1 of fiscal 2026, increasing food and beverage costs by 122 basis points to 35.3% of sales. Management lowered its annual inflation forecast from approximately 7% to a range of 6%–7%, but expects it to reach between 7% and 8% in Q2. The company expects inflation to decline to the low end of guidance or below it in the second half, while beef supply issues remain.

How important is the To-Go business to Texas Roadhouse's growth?

To-Go orders accounted for 14.6% of average weekly sales in Q1 of fiscal 2026, representing more than $25 thousand out of a total exceeding $174 thousand. Restaurants use digital kitchen technology, the ordering app, and pickup windows to process a higher order volume without harming dining-room service. Management believes To-Go increases margin dollars and may slightly benefit the margin percentage when dining rooms remain full, but it lowers the average check mix because of its weaker association with beverage sales.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Beef costs remain the most significant operating risk. They drove commodity inflation to 6.2% in Q1 of fiscal 2026 and increased food and beverage costs by 122 basis points to 35.3% of sales, while management said beef supply issues remained unchanged.
  • −The restaurant margin percentage declined 36 basis points to 16.3% despite 12.8% revenue growth, while restaurant margin dollars rose 10.5% and earnings per share increased only 9.6%, both slower than revenue. The company expects commodity inflation between 7% and 8% in Q2 of fiscal 2026, which may keep margins under pressure before the anticipated improvement in the second half.
  • −Guest traffic momentum showed some deceleration during the period, with traffic growth declining from 5.7% in the February period to 3.7% in the March period, then reaching approximately 3.5% during the first five weeks of Q2 of fiscal 2026. Comparable sales growth also slowed from 8.3% in February to 6.3% in March and 6.5% during the following five weeks.
  • −To-Go growing faster than dine-in creates negative pressure on check mix because pickup orders typically do not include beverages. The negative mix effect was approximately 50 basis points in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with continued weakness in the alcoholic beverage mix.
  • −The approximately $400 million fiscal 2026 capital expenditure plan and the need to accelerate openings in the second half increase execution risk, while the company expects depreciation expense to rise by a low-teens percentage after increasing 16.5% in Q1.
  • −Insider activity registered a strong_sell signal, with net sales of $1.3 million over three months, spread across six sales with no purchases through the latest transaction dated August 26, 2026. This remains a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data discloses otherwise.
How many restaurants does Texas Roadhouse plan to open in fiscal 2026?

The company expects to open approximately 35 company-owned restaurants during fiscal 2026. It opened four Texas Roadhouse restaurants in Q1 and expects up to nine openings across all brands in Q2, making openings more concentrated in the second half. On the franchise side, Jaggers partners expect to open three additional domestic locations, while international partners may open up to six more Texas Roadhouse restaurants during the remainder of the year.

Are Texas Roadhouse's operating efficiency and margins improving?

Some efficiency metrics improved in Q1 of fiscal 2026. Labor costs declined 46 basis points to 32.9% of sales, and other operating expenses improved by 36 basis points to 14.0%. Labor hours also grew by approximately 35% of comparable traffic growth, supported by employee retention, kitchen technology, and growth in the less labor-intensive To-Go channel. However, the overall restaurant margin declined 36 basis points to 16.3% because of commodity inflation, despite restaurant margin dollars rising 10.5% to $264 million.

What does the analyst consensus reflect regarding TXRH stock?

The analyst consensus rates the stock “Neutral,” with an average price target of $213.85. Targets range from a low of $175 to a high of $235, reflecting differing assessments of traffic and restaurant opening growth relative to beef cost pressures. The average target is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $153.83–$216.30, while the data does not provide a valid earnings multiple for an additional valuation comparison.