| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 65 | 19.7x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 26 | -1.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 24 | 5.5% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 66 | 1.0x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 16 | 0.47% | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 99 | 65.8% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 81 | 7 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Ternium S.A. produces and sells steel to the Mexican, Brazilian, and Argentine markets, with a commercial focus on the automotive, infrastructure, energy, mining, agriculture, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning sectors. Its operations comprise the steel segment, which benefited in Q2 FY2026 from higher shipment volumes and realized selling prices, and the mining segment, whose shipments returned to seasonal levels in Brazil, with a slight decline in cash operating income due to lower iron ore prices. The company is also investing in the Pesqueria complex in Mexico to add an integrated steel slab facility that will serve automotive customers with regional supply and shorter delivery times.
In Q2 FY2026, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 50% sequentially, and the margin expanded to 16.5% from 12.2%. Net income reached $465 million, while consolidated steel segment shipments increased 4%, driven by an improvement in the commercial market in Mexico and higher realized prices in Mexico and Brazil. In H1 FY2026, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $1.2 billion, up 65% year over year, and the margin was 14% versus 9%, while net income reached $837 million and earnings attributable to shareholders amounted to $2.84 per American depositary share, nearly double the level in the corresponding period.
The annual financial statements show a more volatile trajectory than the improvement in Q2 FY2026; FY2025 revenue declined to $15.6 billion from $17.6 billion in FY2024, and gross profit fell to $2.4 billion from $2.9 billion, but net income increased to $303.1 million from $173.8 million. Annual profitability remains far below FY2021, when Ternium generated revenue of $16.1 billion, gross profit of $6.2 billion, and net income of $4.4 billion.
The analyst consensus rates TX as a “Buy,” with an average price target of $57.17 and a wide range of $45 to $65; the average is only $1.07 below the 52-week range high of $58.24, while the highest target exceeds that high. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the stock's valuation hinges on the sustainability of the margin recovery following the decline in FY2025 revenue and on the success of Pesqueria, while the low target of $45 reflects demand, trade, and cost risks, as well as a delayed return from the expansion.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 50% from the previous quarter, and the margin expanded to 16.5% from 12.2%. The improvement came from higher shipments and realized prices, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, with consolidated steel segment shipments increasing 4%. Net income reached $465 million, while net income for H1 FY2026 reached $837 million.
Management expects a sequential increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during Q3 FY2026. The increase is expected to come from higher shipments, improved revenue per ton, and margin expansion, partially offset by higher costs per ton. Shipment support is concentrated in the recovery of the Mexican commercial market, gains in share from imports, and improved volumes in Brazil as inventories return to more balanced levels.
Ternium expects the new slab facility at Pesqueria to begin operations in early 2027, after the new finishing lines have already begun gradually ramping up production. Management explained during the August 5, 2026 call that ramping up the facility's production and securing steel approvals from automotive customers will take several quarters. The approval processes cover more than 2.5 million tons, so the company does not expect a significant impact on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during FY2027.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Industry data indicate that steel consumption in Mexico is expected to grow 4% during FY2026 after declining 10% in FY2025. Ternium says its shipments are growing faster than the market because it is gaining share from imports, supported by measures against unfair trade and steel deliveries to gas pipeline projects and automotive manufacturers. Conversely, Section 232 tariffs had been pressuring some industrial customers, and talks between the United States and Mexico had not produced tangible results as of the August 5, 2026 call.
In Q2 FY2026, Ternium paid a dividend of $255 million representing the balance of the dividend declared for FY2025. The company expects capital expenditures to decline from approximately $1.6 billion in FY2026 to around $1.2–1.3 billion in FY2027. Management said on August 5, 2026 that a dividend increase is possible if the improvement in results continues, but emphasized that a final decision had not been made.
Working capital requirements increased by $418 million in Q2 FY2026 due to sales growth and higher raw material prices and steel costs. This shifted the company from net cash of $327 million at the end of March 2026 to net debt of $112 million at the end of June 2026. FY2025 revenue also declined to $15.6 billion from $17.6 billion in FY2024, and gross profit fell to $2.4 billion from $2.9 billion, highlighting the sensitivity of results to the steel cycle, prices, and costs.
