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The Trade Desk
TTD

TTD The Trade Desk, Inc.

The Trade Desk, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
14.34
▲ ⁦+2.65%⁩ (+0.37)
Market Cap$6.7B
Beta1.04
52w Low52w High
12.8356.39
Last Week
⁦-4.97%⁩
Last Month
⁦+6.30%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-24.13%⁩
Last Year
⁦-68.92%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall72
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 5/8Better than 72% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
78
17.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
73
11.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
93
11.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
78
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
33
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
1
-74.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
72
21▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$14
Analyst target · 16 analysts
$14
⁦-2%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$6.00–$25⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$35
⁦+141%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦9.0⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$14–$35⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 16 analysts setting price target
$14.68
⁦+2.4%⁩
Current Price $14.34·Median $14.00
Low
$6.00
High
$25.00
Current price
$14.34
Average target
$14.68
Street summary

TTD Price Targets Hold Steady with Clear Dispersion

The average price target edged up to 14.68 from 14.63 seven and 30 days ago, an increase of 0.05 or 0.34%, while the number of analysts remained at 16. The average was unchanged over the last day. At a price of 13.88, the average remains close to the current price, with a wide range between 6 and 25 and a median average of 14, reflecting high dispersion in estimates.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.86
Hold
Analyst coverage
36
Buy conviction
14%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
132%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time36 analysts rating
1
4
23
5
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.54 → 2.86
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    KeyBanc
    Sector Weight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-10
    HSBC
    HoldReduce
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-10
    BNP Paribas
    NeutralUnderperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.07x
    6.87x54.92x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    12.98x
    5.19x41.53x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.22x
    4.52x36.15x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    13.2%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    11.6%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    1.2%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    83.0%
    12.9%79.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    11.6%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

The Trade Desk operates an independent platform for buying digital advertising that relies on data and artificial intelligence to select and optimize advertising opportunities in real time across the open internet. Most spending on the platform comes from Fortune 500 companies and their brands, and the company serves video, connected television, mobile, display, and audio channels, with media partnerships including Disney, Netflix, NBCUniversal, FOX, Paramount, Spotify, and News Corp. Its revenue-generating capacity is based on platform fees and products related to data, measurement, and decision-making, with management emphasizing that its model focuses on advertiser outcomes rather than selling media inventory it owns.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $715 million, up 3% year over year, and net income was $64 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, equivalent to approximately 9% of revenue. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $241 million at a 34% margin, while adjusted net income was $158 million, or $0.34 per share. Operating expenses rose 6% to $613 million, and operating expenses excluding stock-based compensation increased 12% to $504 million, driven primarily by platform operations, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence tools.

Video, including connected television, accounted for a low-fifties percentage of the business in Q2 of fiscal 2026, mobile accounted for a high-twenties percentage, display accounted for a low-teens percentage, and audio accounted for approximately 7%. The United States represented approximately 83% of revenue versus 17% for international markets, and connected television recorded growth exceeding 50% in both EMEA and APAC. EDGAR data for the 2026 TTM period showed revenue of $3.0 billion, gross profit of $2.3 billion, and net income of $432.6 million, compared with revenue of $2.9 billion and net income of $443.3 million in fiscal 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Revenue growth slowed to 3% year over year in Q2 of fiscal 2026, reaching $715 million, and management acknowledged during the August 6, 2026 call that performance fell short of its expectations due to economic pressures and weak execution, preceding a 28% decline in the stock during premarket trading on August 7, 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company expects revenue of at least $650 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $160 million in Q3 of fiscal 2026; the stated revenue floor implies a sequential decline of approximately 9% from $715 million in the prior quarter, while the chief financial officer indicated that visibility had weakened and that the outlook did not assume a meaningful improvement in the environment during the quarter.
  • The number of joint business plans reached 217 clients by the end of Q2 of fiscal 2026, up 38% year over year, and revenue covered by these plans grew at six times the rate of overall revenue growth. Most of the top 100 accounts also achieved double-digit growth, and business from advertisers outside the top 500 advertisers grew by more than 50% year over year since the beginning of fiscal 2026.
  • The faster-growing channels and markets are moving in the opposite direction from the overall slowdown; connected television and audio grew at double-digit rates in Q2 of fiscal 2026, with audio being the fastest-growing channel and accounting for approximately 7% of the business. EMEA and APAC grew by approximately 30% since the beginning of fiscal 2026, growth in China exceeded 100%, and connected television increased by more than 50% in both EMEA and APAC.
  • The company is working to expand Audience Unlimited from its open beta phase, and in a campaign for a global advertiser, it reduced both the cost of reaching a unique household and the CPM data cost by more than 25%. In August 2026, management also identified the launch of the Zuma upgrade to improve Kokai's ease of use, alongside a measurement framework that was in initial beta on August 6, 2026.
  • Automotive and consumer packaged goods together represented approximately 25% of the company's business in Q2 of fiscal 2026, and their budgets came under pressure from tariffs, oil prices, and consumer weakness. In contrast, the medical, healthcare, automotive, and travel sectors recorded strong growth, while pressure persisted in food and beverage and home and garden.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The company maintains strong profitability and cash flow despite the revenue slowdown; in Q2 of fiscal 2026, it generated an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin of 34%, operating cash flow of $154 million, and free cash flow of $136 million.
    • +Joint business plans provide quantitative evidence of deepening client relationships, as their number reached 217 by the end of Q2 of fiscal 2026, and associated revenue grew at six times the company's overall growth rate. Most of the top 100 accounts also grew at double-digit rates, indicating that the weakness is not evenly distributed across the client base.
    • +International expansion, connected television, and audio represent clear growth drivers; EMEA and APAC grew by approximately 30% since the beginning of fiscal 2026, growth in China exceeded 100%, and connected television achieved growth of more than 50% in both regions. These figures support the company's ability to diversify its revenue away from the U.S. market, which continued to represent 83% of quarterly revenue.
    • +The Trade Desk had approximately $1.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of Q2 of fiscal 2026. It used $78 million to repurchase Class A shares during the quarter, with $269 million remaining under the authorization, giving it flexibility to invest in products and infrastructure and repurchase shares.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The company faces concentration in its client base and sectors; most spending comes from Fortune 500 companies, and automotive and consumer packaged goods alone represent approximately 25% of the business, while the chief executive acknowledged on August 6, 2026 that a limited number of large clients were under pressure. Additionally, 83% of Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue came from the United States, keeping results highly sensitive to U.S. advertising budgets.
    • −Revenue came under direct pressure from weak consumer spending, tariffs, and higher oil prices, particularly among automotive and consumer packaged goods advertisers. Management explained that some brands temporarily reduced their budgets or shifted toward buying cheaper media, while weakness persisted in food and beverage and home and garden during Q2 of fiscal 2026.
    • −The outlook for Q3 of fiscal 2026 indicates continued weakness, as the company set revenue at no less than $650 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at approximately $160 million. The revenue floor is approximately 9% below Q2 revenue, and management said visibility was lower than in prior periods and that it did not assume a meaningful improvement in the environment during the quarter.
    • −Revenue growth slowed to only 3% year over year in Q2 of fiscal 2026, and management acknowledged that weak execution was one of the two primary reasons performance fell short of expectations. At the same time, operating expenses excluding stock-based compensation increased 12% to $504 million, outpacing revenue growth, due to platform operations, infrastructure migration, and the expansion of artificial intelligence tools.
    • −The platform faces competition from Google and Amazon, as well as from programmatic guaranteed solutions and fixed-price transactions that attract advertisers seeking lower fees and greater simplicity. Management believes artificial intelligence strengthens the demand-side platform model, but the continued advantage of walled gardens due to their exclusive inventory could pressure The Trade Desk's market share or force it to demonstrate the value of measurement and decision-making more quickly.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is neutral, and the average price target is $14.63 within a wide range of $6 to $25, reflecting significant disagreement about the speed of a growth recovery. The average target is approximately 74% below the top of the 52-week range of $56.39 and only approximately 14% above the bottom of the range at $12.83; this valuation contraction is consistent with Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue growth of only 3%, the weak outlook for the following quarter, and the decline recorded on August 7, 2026.

    HoldAnalyst target: $14.63(+2.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did The Trade Desk's growth slow in Q2 of fiscal 2026?

    Revenue in Q2 of fiscal 2026 was approximately $715 million, up only 3% year over year, and management said on August 6, 2026 that the result fell short of its expectations. It attributed this to a combination of weak execution and economic pressures, including weak consumer spending, tariffs, and higher oil prices. Automotive and consumer packaged goods, which together represent approximately 25% of the business, were among the most affected categories, with pressure also persisting in food and beverage and home and garden.

    What is The Trade Desk's outlook for Q3 of fiscal 2026?

    The company expects revenue of at least $650 million in Q3 of fiscal 2026, compared with $715 million in the prior quarter. It also expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $160 million, compared with $241 million and a 34% margin in Q2. The chief financial officer explained on August 6, 2026 that visibility had become relatively limited and that the outlook did not assume a meaningful improvement in the environment during the quarter.

    Which products could reaccelerate TTD's growth?

    Management identified Audience Unlimited, the Zuma upgrade, and the new measurement framework as key initiatives in August 2026. In a campaign for a global advertiser, Audience Unlimited reduced both the cost of reaching a unique household and the CPM data cost by more than 25%, while Zuma was intended to improve Kokai's ease of use, simplify workflows, and expand the use of artificial intelligence. The measurement framework was in its initial beta phase on August 6, 2026, and aims to allocate advertising value more accurately across the customer journey rather than relying on the last click or view.

    Are connected television and audio channels still growing at The Trade Desk?

    Yes, connected television and audio recorded double-digit growth in Q2 of fiscal 2026. Video, including connected television, accounted for a low-fifties percentage of the business, while audio represented approximately 7% and was the fastest-growing channel for the fourth consecutive quarter. Internationally, connected television growth exceeded 50% year over year in both EMEA and APAC during the same quarter.

    How important are joint business plans to The Trade Desk's results?

    The number of joint business plans reached 217 clients by the end of Q2 of fiscal 2026, up 38% year over year. Revenue covered by these plans grew at six times the rate of overall revenue growth because they align brands, their agencies, and the platform around shared goals and measurement. Management also said that most of the top 100 accounts grew at double-digit rates and that the growth team dedicated to winning back clients and developing business increased its book of business by more than 250% year over year.

    What do The Trade Desk's liquidity and profitability look like?

    The company ended Q2 of fiscal 2026 with approximately $1.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. During the quarter, it generated $154 million in operating cash flow and $136 million in free cash flow, alongside net income of $64 million. It also repurchased $78 million of Class A shares, with $269 million remaining under the repurchase authorization at the end of the quarter.

  • −The neutral analyst consensus and the wide target range from $6 to $25 reflect a high degree of uncertainty regarding valuation and the recovery path. The average target of $14.63 is much closer to the bottom of the 52-week range of $12.83 than to the top of $56.39, after weak August 2026 results and guidance led to a sharp revaluation of the stock.