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Stocks
Trane Technologies plc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall79
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 9/9SafeBetter than 79% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
27
33.4x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
62
7.0%7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
82
25.5%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
80
0.8x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
47
0.92%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
61
15.0%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
79
14▲3Top tier
TT

TT Trane Technologies plc

Trane Technologies plc · NYSE
Market Closed
442.52
▲ ⁦+0.61%⁩ (+2.69)
Market Cap$96.8B
Beta1.21
52w Low52w High
348.06505.87
Last Week
⁦+0.80%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.56%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.47%⁩
Last Year
⁦+8.09%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$443
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$555
⁦+25%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$475–$585⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$214
⁦-52%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.7⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$214–$555⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$546.88
⁦+23.6%⁩
Current Price $442.52·Median $555.00
Low
$475.00
High
$585.00
Current price
$442.52
Average target
$546.88
Street summary

Targets Steady with a Limited Positive Bias

Price target expectations did not change over one day, one week, or 30 days; the consensus average remained at $546.88, with the number of analysts unchanged at 11. The range is between $475 and $585, while the current price is $446, reflecting a clear divergence among estimates, with consensus remaining above the current price.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.63
Buy
Analyst coverage
24
Buy conviction
54%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
2↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
25%
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
2
11
11
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.28 → 3.63
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-08
    UBS
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-28
    Jefferies
    HoldBuy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    Macquarie
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    33.45x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    27.76x
    4.57x36.58x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    23.10x
    3.43x27.47x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    3.5%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.0%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    4.7%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    35.4%
    8.6%54.6%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    25.5%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.76x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.9%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    29.9%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.95
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Trane Technologies develops heating, ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration, and thermal management solutions for buildings, data centers, and transportation, combining equipment, services, and integrated control systems. Its business drivers include commercial and residential HVAC systems, Thermo King transportation solutions, chillers and coolant distribution units, as well as smart systems and Agentic AI that help buildings reduce energy consumption and improve operational resilience. Services account for about one-third of the company’s revenue and have achieved a low-teens compound annual growth rate since 2020, giving the revenue model a recurring component alongside equipment sales.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue according to EDGAR was about $6.4 billion, gross profit was $2.3 billion, net income was $925.7 million, and earnings per share were $4.16. These figures equate to a gross margin of approximately 35.9% and a net income margin of approximately 14.5%, compared with revenue of $5.0 billion and net income of $584.4 million in fiscal Q1 2026. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share in fiscal Q2 2026 were about $4.31, up 11% year over year, while net revenue increased 11% to $6.35 billion and organic revenue grew 9%.

Commercial HVAC in the Americas led performance in fiscal Q2 2026, with bookings up 50% and organic revenue up in the low teens, while residential bookings increased in the high twenties and organic revenue rose in the low teens. Asia-Pacific bookings grew 31% and organic revenue grew 10%, while EMEA was affected by the Middle East conflict, although excluding this impact, commercial HVAC bookings grew in the mid-twenties and revenue grew in the mid-single digits. Commercial HVAC represents about 95% of the $12.1 billion backlog, making this business the most important source of future visibility and expected revenue.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The group’s organic bookings increased 37% in fiscal Q2 2026, and total bookings reached $7.8 billion, up 39%, lifting backlog to a record $12.1 billion, an increase of 70% year over year.
  • Applied bookings grew 130%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter in which growth exceeded 100%, and increased more than fourfold on a two-year cumulative basis. This demand has begun converting into revenue, with Applied revenue growing more than 40% in fiscal Q2 2026, and management expects this rate to continue during the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • The backlog provides visibility beyond fiscal 2026, with about $6 billion allocated for execution in fiscal 2027 and beyond. Demand is supported by four orders, each valued at more than $100 million, in fiscal Q2 2026, one of which was within Stellar, alongside order growth in 11 of 14 vertical markets since the start of fiscal 2026.
  • Management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to approximately 9% organic revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share of between $15.20 and $15.30. It also expects approximately 10% organic growth and adjusted earnings per share of about $4.70 in fiscal Q3 2026, with margin expansion of about 50 basis points expected in that quarter and more than one percentage point in fiscal Q4 2026.
  • Demand for data center cooling gives Trane Technologies an opportunity spanning chillers, air handlers, coolant distribution units, and closed-loop systems, while management said LiquidStack is exceeding its expectations and that the order pipeline is strong. In addition, Stellar is targeting revenue of $500 million in fiscal 2026 from modular chiller plants, while BrainBox solutions and battery systems support the vision for smart and resilient buildings.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The record backlog of $12.1 billion, including about $6 billion for fiscal 2027 and beyond, provides strong support for continued growth, not only for results in the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • +Demand is not limited to data centers alone; orders have grown since the start of fiscal 2026 in 11 of 14 vertical markets, mostly at double-digit rates, and all fourteen vertical markets increased by more than 20% in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • +The services business, which represents about one-third of group revenue and has grown at a low-teens compound annual rate since 2020, provides a more durable source of revenue that supports equipment sales and the backlog cycle.
  • +The capital policy supports shareholder returns while continuing to invest; annual dividends were increased 12% to $4.20 per share, and the company has repurchased about $840 million of shares since the start of fiscal 2026, with $3.8 billion remaining under the current authorization.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $546.88, within a wide range of $475 to $585, while the 52-week range is $348.06 to $505.87; the average target is about 8.1% above the range high. Although record bookings and the raised fiscal 2026 outlook support a positive revaluation, the “Neutral” consensus and wide target range reflect concerns about backlog conversion, EMEA margins, and cost inflation, and the data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio that can be relied upon.

HoldAnalyst target: $546.88(+23.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving TT stock growth in fiscal 2026?

The clearest driver is 37% organic bookings growth in fiscal Q2 2026 and an increase in total bookings to $7.8 billion. This led to a record backlog of $12.1 billion, up 70% year over year, with about $6 billion allocated to fiscal 2027 and beyond. The company also raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to approximately 9% organic growth and adjusted earnings per share of between $15.20 and $15.30.

How large is Trane Technologies’ exposure to data centers?

The data do not disclose a specific percentage of revenue derived from data centers, but they show that this market is a key driver of commercial HVAC and Applied growth. The company provides data centers with chillers, air handlers, coolant distribution units, and closed-loop systems, and said LiquidStack is exceeding its expectations and that Stellar is targeting revenue of $500 million in fiscal 2026. However, management emphasized that demand extends beyond data centers, with orders growing since the start of fiscal 2026 in 11 of 14 vertical markets.

Can Trane Technologies execute its $12.1 billion backlog?

The company expanded Applied capacity fourfold during the three years preceding fiscal Q2 2026 and continues to invest in Stellar and Grand Rapids. Management said it is not turning away orders and that about $6 billion of the backlog is allocated to fiscal 2027 and beyond, spreading deliveries over a longer period. However, suppliers face slightly higher-than-usual constraints, and data center site schedules can change, so the outlook includes a degree of execution disruption.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The backlog has become highly concentrated in commercial HVAC, which represents about 95% of the $12.1 billion balance, while Stellar is currently tied almost entirely to data centers. Therefore, a slowdown in data center construction or changes to project schedules could affect the conversion of a large portion of the backlog, and management has acknowledged that job sites may move forward or be delayed and that its outlook includes a degree of execution disruption.
  • −The Middle East represents less than 3% of group revenue but about 15% of EMEA revenue, and management expects its revenue to remain down about 30% during the second half of fiscal 2026 after a similar decline in Q2. The conflict pressured EMEA margins, and the company expects continued pressure on this segment’s margins despite cost-cutting measures implemented at the end of June 2026.
  • −Price versus cost inflation remained a headwind in fiscal Q2 2026, and management expects it to remain a headwind during the second half, although to a progressively diminishing degree. Investments in production capacity and innovation and the integration of acquisitions also pressured operating leverage, and Stellar’s expected contribution to fiscal 2026 earnings per share has become neutral instead of the modest increase previously expected.
  • −Higher volumes require more suppliers, and management said supply chain constraints could be slightly higher than usual, although they are not comparable to the crisis of 2021 and 2022. Increasing Applied capacity fourfold over three years, with expected capital expenditure equal to 2% to 3% of fiscal 2026 revenue, adds execution risks if factory and supplier capacity does not align with order deliveries.
  • −The analyst consensus on TT is “Neutral,” not “Buy,” and the wide target range of $475 to $585 reveals meaningful disagreement about fair value. The average target of $546.88 is also about 8.1% above the 52-week range high of $505.87, so achieving the target valuation depends on continued conversion of the backlog into growth and profitability.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended August 4, 2026 recorded one sale and no purchases, for a negative net amount of 68,479.15. This remains a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data contain no evidence to the contrary.
  • How profitable was Trane Technologies in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Revenue according to EDGAR was about $6.4 billion, gross profit was $2.3 billion, and net income was $925.7 million. This equates to a gross margin of approximately 35.9% and a net income margin of approximately 14.5%, with reported earnings per share of $4.16. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share were $4.31 and grew 11% year over year, but cost inflation and additional investments pressured operating leverage during the quarter.

    What is the impact of the Middle East on TT’s results?

    The Middle East represents less than 3% of group revenue but about 15% of the EMEA segment, so its impact on regional margins was greater than its impact on the company as a whole. The region’s revenue declined about 30% in fiscal Q2 2026, and the outlook assumes a similar decline in the second half of fiscal 2026. Excluding the Middle East, EMEA commercial HVAC bookings grew in the mid-twenties and revenue grew in the mid-single digits, and the raised full-year outlook incorporated the continuation of this pressure.

    How does Trane Technologies return capital to shareholders?

    The company is targeting the deployment of $2.8 to $3.3 billion during fiscal 2026 through a mix of investment, dividends, share repurchases, and disciplined acquisitions. It increased its dividend 12% to an annual rate of $4.20 per share and has repurchased about $840 million of shares since the start of fiscal 2026. Another $3.8 billion remains under the repurchase authorization, while the company expects capital expenditure equal to 2% to 3% of revenue to support production capacity and growth.