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Stocks
Tyson Foods, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall67
Strong — clearly above market medianValue TrapF 5/8SafeBetter than 67% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
32.5x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
46
2.9%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
41
3.7%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
60
3.1x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
71
3.73%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
34
2.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
91
7▲3Top tier
TSN

TSN Tyson Foods, Inc.

Tyson Foods, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
52.98
▲ ⁦+0.99%⁩ (+0.52)
Market Cap$18.8B
Beta0.38
52w Low52w High
50.5669.48
Last Week
⁦-5.07%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.11%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-5.61%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.12%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$53
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$66
⁦+25%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$65–$75⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$37
⁦-30%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$37–$66⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$67.40
⁦+27.2%⁩
Current Price $52.98·Median $66.00
Low
$65.00
High
$75.00
Current price
$52.98
Average target
$67.40
Street summary

A Limited Reduction in the Average Price Target While Ratings Remain Unchanged

The average price target declined to 67.4, compared with 69.8 seven days ago and 69.67 30 days ago, representing decreases of 2.4 and 2.27, respectively. The number of analysts remained unchanged at 3, while the current range is between 65 and 75, reflecting limited dispersion in the targets, with the average still above the current price of 52.98.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-3.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.31
Hold
Analyst coverage
13
Buy conviction
31%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
19%
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
2
2
8
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.36 → 3.31
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    32.50x
    4.61x36.85x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    11.44x
    3.86x30.86x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.27x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.2%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    2.9%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -25.9%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    6.1%
    9.2%67.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    3.7%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.09x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    3.7%
    0.9%8.3%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    122.3%
    15.9%176.6%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.16
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

Tyson Foods is a diversified protein foods company that generates revenue from chicken, beef, pork, prepared foods, and international operations. The quality of its earnings increasingly depends on branded and value-added products, including Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, State Fair, and Aidells, while the beef business remains more exposed to the commodity cycle and cattle costs. In prepared foods, the company relies on deli meats, sausages, breakfast products, and snacks, while the chicken model depends largely on demand committed in advance by strategic customers rather than the spot market.

In Q3 of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $13.9 billion, gross profit was $921 million, net income according to EDGAR was approximately $182 million, and earnings per share were $0.52. On an adjusted basis, the company reported operating income of $547 million, an operating margin of 3.9%, and earnings per share of $0.99, up 9% year over year. Total sales remained nearly stable, as a 3.4% increase in average selling price offset a 2.8% decline in volume, while reported revenue of $13.87 billion fell short of analysts' expectations of $14.01 billion.

The segment mix in Q3 of fiscal 2026 revealed sharp divergence: chicken generated operating income of $488 million and a margin of 11.2%, while prepared foods recorded sales of $2.6 billion, operating income of $321 million, and a margin of 12.6%. In contrast, the beef segment lost $138 million as volume declined 15.9% and prices rose 12.1%, while the pork segment generated $60 million at a margin of 3.8%, and the international segment generated $48 million at a margin of 8%. During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, operating cash flow reached $1.47 billion and free cash flow was $913 million after capital expenditures of $556 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Widening beef losses represent the most significant negative driver; the segment lost $138 million in Q3 of fiscal 2026, and the company lowered its full-year outlook to a loss of between $500 million and $650 million because of higher cattle costs and compressed USDA margins.
  • Chicken continues to offset a large portion of the weakness in beef, as its operating income increased $40 million year over year to $488 million at a margin of 11.2%, and retail and foodservice volumes rose 3.8% compared with approximately 1% growth in total segment volume. Management said that approximately three-quarters of the segment's operating income now comes from a committed-demand model and branded and value-added products.
  • Market-share gains in prepared foods support the growth trajectory; the segment achieved volume and revenue gains during the thirteen weeks of Q3 of fiscal 2026, with volume share up 70 basis points, unit share up 70 basis points, and revenue share up 50 basis points. Hillshire Snacking increased 18.4%, Hillshire Farm Lunch Meat 7%, Aidells dinner sausage 5.8%, and Jimmy Dean Refrigerated Breakfast 2.7%.
  • The company raised the midpoint of its prepared foods operating income outlook to a range of $1.30–$1.35 billion for fiscal 2026 and maintained its chicken outlook at $1.90–$2.05 billion. It also expects the benefit of lower pork costs to flow from inventory into results during Q4 of fiscal 2026 and continue into fiscal 2027, while pricing continues to catch up with the cost of beef trimmings.
  • Large-bird chicken genetics add potential operating leverage; management said the improved breed will account for approximately 75% of production at locations using this type by the end of 2026, with the remaining quarter of the rollout occurring during fiscal 2027. This breed is intended to improve the number of eggs per house, livability, and breast meat yield, benefiting the Cobb business and domestic chicken operations.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The diversity of Tyson Foods' portfolio provides a proven ability to offset the beef cycle; operating income from segments excluding beef grew by $172 million, or 6.5%, during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, led by chicken, prepared foods, and pork.
  • +The chicken and prepared foods platforms delivered double-digit margins of 11.2% and 12.6%, respectively, in Q3 of fiscal 2026, supported by a richer mix of value-added and branded products and strategic demand relationships that reduce reliance on spot commodity prices.
  • +Liquidity of $4 billion, net leverage of 2.1 times, and free cash flow of $913 million during the first nine months of fiscal 2026 provide flexibility for investment and capital returns. The company returned $652 million to shareholders during the same period, repurchased $31 million of shares during the quarter, and purchased an additional $49 million after quarter-end.
  • +Innovations focused on protein and convenience provide a clear growth channel, with the expansion of Jimmy Dean high-protein, the launch of Hillshire Reserve lunchmeat, and 18.4% growth in Hillshire Snacking. Management sees room to expand distribution and reach younger consumers through these platforms.

▼ Selling Case5 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of $69.67 and a range of $65 to $78; the average target is slightly above the 52-week range high of $69.48, while the highest target clearly exceeds that high. In contrast, the 52-week range remains wide at $50.56 to $69.48, and coverage dated August 13, 2026 cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.6 times, reflecting the valuation's sensitivity to weak profitability and beef losses despite the positive analyst outlook.

BuyAnalyst target: $69.67(+31.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is the most important factor pressuring TSN shares in fiscal 2026?

The most important factor is the U.S. cattle cycle and the supply shortage that raised procurement costs in the beef segment. In Q3 of fiscal 2026, segment volume declined 15.9% despite a 12.1% increase in prices, and the segment recorded an operating loss of $138 million. Tyson Foods expects an annual segment loss of between $500 million and $650 million, while the impact of reopening the Mexican border to cattle could take approximately a year.

Why does management view chicken earnings as more sustainable than traditional commodity earnings?

Management said that approximately three-quarters of the chicken segment's operating income comes from a committed-demand model with strategic customers and from branded or value-added products. The segment generated operating income of $488 million and a margin of 11.2% in Q3 of fiscal 2026, up $40 million year over year. Retail and foodservice volumes also increased 3.8%, even as the market value of commodity chicken cuts declined, according to management's commentary.

How are new brands affecting growth in prepared foods?

Prepared foods generated sales of $2.6 billion in Q3 of fiscal 2026, up 1.7%, and recorded market-share gains throughout the thirteen weeks. Hillshire Snacking increased 18.4%, Hillshire Farm Lunch Meat 7%, Aidells dinner sausage 5.8%, and Jimmy Dean Refrigerated Breakfast 2.7%. Jimmy Dean high-protein and Hillshire Reserve lunchmeat support the strategy of targeting everyday convenience, protein, and higher-value products.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The beef business is suffering from a historic cattle shortage that is raising procurement costs and pressuring margins; segment volume declined 15.9% and the segment lost $138 million in Q3 of fiscal 2026. Even the gradual reopening of the Mexican border does not provide a quick solution, because the material impact could take approximately a year and Mexican imports historically represented only about 5% of U.S. slaughter.
  • −The company lowered its adjusted operating income range for fiscal 2026 to $2.1–$2.3 billion because of cattle availability challenges and projected an annual beef loss of between $500 million and $650 million. It also announced in August 2026 that it would reduce its beef-processing network and planned to exit additional packaging plants, adding execution risk to the weak supply cycle.
  • −Q3 fiscal 2026 results indicate slowing volume and weak underlying growth; total volume declined 2.8%, revenue of $13.87 billion fell short of expectations of $14.01 billion, and meat product sales volumes declined 2.8% compared with a 0.1% decline in the comparable period. Results coverage noted that three-year revenue growth was only 1.5%.
  • −Prepared foods remains exposed to delays in passing through inflation; the segment absorbed approximately $30 million of higher commodity costs in Q3 of fiscal 2026, particularly beef trimmings, causing operating income to decline slightly despite 1.7% sales growth. The recovery of fuel and freight costs may also lag by one or two quarters, coinciding with slowing prepared foods categories and pressure on consumer confidence.
  • −Valuation indicators add risk if earnings do not improve; coverage dated August 13, 2026 cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.6 times, with a net margin of approximately 1% and an operating margin of 2.3%. This combination makes the valuation sensitive to continued beef losses or a stalled margin recovery, even with the price-to-sales ratio cited in the coverage declining to 0.36 times.
Does Tyson Foods have sufficient liquidity to withstand beef losses?

The company ended Q3 of fiscal 2026 with liquidity of $4 billion and net leverage of 2.1 times. During the first nine months, it generated $1.47 billion in operating cash flow and spent $556 million on capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of $913 million. It also returned $652 million to shareholders during the period and expects annual free cash flow of between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion.

What leadership change was announced on the August 3, 2026 call?

Tyson Foods introduced Jeff Schomburger as the incoming chief executive officer on the August 3, 2026 call, following more than ten years of service on the board of directors. Donnie King explicitly said he would step down as chief executive officer but remain a member of the board and involved in the company's long-term direction. Schomburger emphasized that the priority is to continue the existing strategy, accelerate operational execution, and strengthen the brands and the multi-category protein portfolio.