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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall95
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 8/9Insider cluster buyBetter than 95% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
22
32.0x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
96
30.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
86
31.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
87
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
20
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
89
64.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
91
9▲3Top tier
TSM

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · NYSE
Market Closed
433.24
▲ ⁦+1.22%⁩ (+5.21)
Market Cap$2.2T
Beta1.39
52w Low52w High
257.98479.00
Last Week
⁦+3.89%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.95%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+2.89%⁩
Last Year
⁦+66.35%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$433
Analyst target · 10 analysts
$554
⁦+28%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$500–$700⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$174
⁦-60%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.6⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$174–$554⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$578.43
⁦+33.5%⁩
Current Price $433.24·Median $554.00
Low
$500.00
High
$700.00
Current price
$433.24
Average target
$578.43
Street summary

Stable Ratings with a Slight Cut in Consensus

The price target consensus remained steady at 578.43 from 10 analysts over the last 7 days, while over 30 days it declined from 589 to 578.43, a decrease of 10.57 or 1.79%, with no change in the number of analysts. Estimates remain dispersed between 500 and 700, with a median of 554, reflecting a notable divergence in outlook despite the consensus remaining above the current price of 428.03.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.26
Buy
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
95%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
46%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
6
12
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.25 → 4.26
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-11
    Bernstein
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-27
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    31.97x
    6.87x54.92x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    22.80x
    4.52x36.15x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    1.8%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    30.8%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    356.6%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    64.2%
    12.9%79.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    31.7%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-16 data

Company Overview

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited operates as a contract semiconductor manufacturer, generating revenue by producing wafers for customers that use them in high-performance computing, smartphones, the Internet of Things, automotive applications, and consumer electronics. In Q2 FY2026, the high-performance computing platform accounted for 66% of revenue, compared with 22% for smartphones, 5% for the Internet of Things, 4% for automotive applications, and 1% for consumer electronics, illustrating that the profit engine has become highly tied to artificial intelligence and computing infrastructure.

Q2 FY2026 revenue reached approximately $40.2 billion, at the high end of the company's guidance, supported by demand for advanced manufacturing technologies. Gross margin rose 150 basis points quarter over quarter to 67.7%, while 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies represented 77% of wafer revenue; this comprised 3% from 2-nanometer technology, 30% from 3-nanometer technology, 33% from 5-nanometer technology, and 11% from 7-nanometer technology. High-performance computing revenue increased 20% quarter over quarter, while smartphone revenue declined 4%.

The provided EDGAR statements show strong year-over-year improvement in FY2024, with revenue of $2,894.3 billion, gross profit of $1,624.4 billion, net income of $1,157.5 billion, and earnings per share of 44.67, compared with revenue of $2,161.7 billion, net income of $851.0 billion, and earnings per share of 32.85 in FY2023. This equates to year-over-year growth of approximately 33.9% in revenue and 36.0% in net income, with the calculated gross margin rising from approximately 54.4% to approximately 56.1%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its FY2026 revenue growth forecast to slightly above 40% year over year in U.S. dollar terms after reporting $40.2 billion in Q2 FY2026, and guided for revenue of between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion in Q3 FY2026, equivalent to growth of 12% quarter over quarter and 37% year over year at the midpoint.
  • High-performance computing has become the largest business driver; platform revenue grew 20% quarter over quarter and accounted for 66% of Q2 FY2026 revenue, while management described artificial intelligence demand as extremely strong and noted that central processing units, graphics processing units, and accelerators all use TSMC's advanced technologies.
  • The FY2026 capital expenditure budget was raised from a range of $52–56 billion at the beginning of the year to $60–64 billion, with 70%–80% allocated to advanced manufacturing technologies and 10%–20% to advanced packaging, testing, mask making, and other areas. The decision is linked to increased customer demand, including agentic artificial intelligence, alongside the announcement of an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona to build fabs for 2-nanometer and more advanced technologies and advanced packaging.
  • 2-nanometer technology began contributing 3% of wafer revenue in Q2 FY2026, while A14 targets a 10%–15% speed improvement at the same power consumption or a 25%–30% improvement in power efficiency at the same speed, with an approximately 20% increase in density. A14 risk production is scheduled to begin in 2027 and volume production in 2028, followed by volume production of A13 and A12 in 2029.
  • Customer agreements provide tangible demand signals; on August 23, 2026, it was reported that AMD intends to invest more than $10 billion in Taiwan to build advanced packaging capacity in cooperation with TSMC, and on August 24, 2026, Xiaomi was reported to be collaborating with TSMC to manufacture the Xring smartphone processor. TSMC's revenue also jumped 44.7% in July 2026, supported by accelerating demand for artificial intelligence chips.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +TSMC's model combines high growth with strong margins; Q2 FY2026 revenue reached approximately $40.2 billion and gross margin was 67.7%, while Q3 FY2026 guidance targets year-over-year growth of 37% at the midpoint.
  • +Direct exposure to high-performance computing and artificial intelligence is the core strength, with the platform accounting for 66% of Q2 FY2026 revenue after 20% sequential growth. Management said the gap between demand and supply is large and that the demand trend could remain strong through 2029 or 2030, while not ruling out volatility during that period.
  • +The technology roadmap gives the company a multiyear path; 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies generated 77% of wafer revenue in Q2 FY2026, while 2-nanometer and 3-nanometer capacity is being expanded and A14 and its A13 and A12 derivatives are being developed with specified production timelines between 2028 and 2029.
  • +The company ended Q2 FY2026 with NT$3.5 trillion in cash and marketable securities and generated NT$783 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter. It intends to raise its cash dividend per share from NT$18 for 2025 to NT$24 in 2026, an increase of 33%, with an additional increase expected in 2027.
  • +The insider activity signal was classified as a strong buy, with net purchases of $1.3 million over three months and 113 purchases versus one sale, with the latest recorded transaction on August 19, 2026. These data support the case for internal confidence, but remain a supplementary signal and do not replace an assessment of growth, margins, and operational risks.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $589 and a wide range of $500 to $700, while the 52-week range is $225.63–479. The average target is approximately 22.9% above the top of the 52-week range, and the highest target is approximately 46.1% above it, reflecting strong growth expectations but increasing valuation sensitivity to any slowdown in artificial intelligence demand or greater-than-expected margin pressure. The available data do not provide a valid comparable earnings multiple, so the valuation assessment here is based on the target range, the breadth of the 52-week range, and the operational risks accompanying capital expansion.

BuyAnalyst target: $589(+36.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What was the largest driver of TSMC's revenue in Q2 FY2026?

High-performance computing was the largest driver, with revenue rising 20% quarter over quarter and accounting for 66% of total revenue. Smartphones ranked second at 22% after a sequential decline of 4%, followed by the Internet of Things at 5% and automotive applications at 4%. Quarterly revenue reached $40.2 billion, driven by demand for advanced manufacturing technologies. In addition, 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies accounted for 77% of wafer revenue.

What is TSMC's guidance for Q3 FY2026?

TSMC expects revenue of between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion in Q3 FY2026. The midpoint represents growth of approximately 12% quarter over quarter and 37% year over year. The company expects a gross margin of between 65% and 67% and an operating margin of between 56% and 58%. The decline in gross margin from 67.7% in the previous quarter reflects the impact of the rapid expansion of 2-nanometer technology.

How does TSMC benefit from the growth of agentic artificial intelligence?

Management believes agentic artificial intelligence is strengthening the role of central processing units within artificial intelligence data centers, adding silicon demand alongside accelerators. It explained that x86, Arm, and RISC-V architectures rely primarily on TSMC customers and that the company is working with them to provide the necessary technologies and capacity. In Q2 FY2026, high-performance computing accounted for 66% of revenue. The company also raised its FY2026 revenue growth forecast to slightly above 40% in U.S. dollar terms.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Limited advanced packaging capacity represents a direct constraint on converting artificial intelligence demand into revenue; C.C. Wei said during the Q2 FY2026 call that packaging capacity was so tight that it was limiting customer growth and that the gap between demand and supply was large. Some workloads may have to use competing alternatives such as EMIB-T until TSMC's capacity expands.
  • −Consumer and price-sensitive markets face weakness due to higher component prices and economic uncertainty; smartphone platform revenue declined 4% quarter over quarter in Q2 FY2026, while management said demand for most mature-technology applications outside power management integrated circuits and image sensors was not strong.
  • −The ramp-up of 2-nanometer production creates clear pressure on profitability; the company expects this expansion to reduce gross margin by approximately 3–4 percentage points in the second half of FY2026 and guided for a gross margin of between 65% and 67% in Q3 FY2026, compared with 67.7% in the previous quarter. It also expects overseas fabs to reduce margin by 2–3 percentage points in their initial stages, with the impact widening to 3–4 percentage points in later stages.
  • −Raising capital expenditure to $60–64 billion in FY2026 increases capital-intensity and execution risks, particularly as management attributed part of the increase to equipment price inflation. These investments will be justified only if actual customer demand persists and chips do not become inventory due to data center delays or power constraints, which the company said it monitors as part of capacity planning.
  • −Competition in advanced manufacturing and packaging exists from Samsung, Intel, and technologies such as EMIB-T, while an analyst noted during the Q2 FY2026 call that some U.S. customers were engaging with competitors. TSMC's response depends on technological and manufacturing leadership and customer trust, but successful alternatives could give customers additional options and pressure market share or pricing over time.
  • −The range of analyst targets assumes expansion beyond the recorded 52-week range; the average target of $589 is approximately 22.9% above the top of the range at $479, and even the lowest target of $500 exceeds it by approximately 4.4%. Achieving these targets therefore depends heavily on continued artificial intelligence growth, execution of capacity expansions, and containing the margin contraction resulting from 2-nanometer technology and overseas fabs.
Why did TSMC raise capital expenditure in FY2026?

TSMC raised the budget to $60–64 billion from $52–56 billion at the beginning of FY2026. Management attributed the increase primarily to growth in customer demand and manufacturing equipment price inflation. Approximately 70%–80% of the budget will go to advanced manufacturing technologies, approximately 10% to specialty technologies, and 10%–20% to advanced packaging, testing, mask making, and other areas. This is in addition to an announced $100 billion investment in Arizona to build fabs for 2-nanometer and more advanced technologies and advanced packaging facilities.

How important are N2 and A14 technologies to TSMC's future?

2-nanometer technology contributed 3% of wafer revenue in Q2 FY2026, but its rapid expansion is expected to reduce gross margin by 3–4 percentage points in the second half of the year. A14 targets a 10%–15% speed improvement at the same power or a 25%–30% improvement in power efficiency at the same speed, with an approximately 20% increase in density compared with N2. The company scheduled A14 risk production to begin in 2027 and volume production in 2028. A13 and A12 are scheduled to enter volume production in 2029.

What are the key risks to TSM shares associated with global expansion?

TSMC expects overseas fabs to reduce gross margin by 2–3 percentage points in their initial stages and then by 3–4 percentage points in later stages. At the same time, it intends to build additional fabs in Arizona and three new 3-nanometer fabs in Taiwan, Arizona, and Japan, in addition to 13 advanced fabs and a packaging facility in Taiwan during the years following the July 16, 2026 call. This enormous program increases the sensitivity of returns on capital to sustained artificial intelligence demand and the timely execution of projects. The company is also monitoring the progress of data center construction and power availability to avoid producing chips that accumulate in customer inventories.