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Stocks
Tesla, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall33
Weak — below market medianSucker StockF 5/9SafeBetter than 33% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
6
327.9x▼18.2xBottom tier
▸
Growth
27
11.8%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
43
3.2%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
85
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
43
—2.10%Around median
▸
Momentum
33
-5.6%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
81
25▲3Top tier
TSLA

TSLA Tesla, Inc.

Tesla, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Open
368.16
▲ ⁦+3.98%⁩ (+14.08)
Market Cap$1.4T
Beta1.83
52w Low52w High
297.38498.83
Last Week
⁦+0.06%⁩
Last Month
⁦+12.05%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.97%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.94%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$367
Analyst target · 14 analysts
$435
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$370–$491⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$23
⁦-94%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.5⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$23–$435⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 14 analysts setting price target
$436.08
⁦+18.4%⁩
Current Price $368.16·Median $435.00
Low
$370.00
High
$491.00
Current price
$368.16
Average target
$436.08
Street summary

Stable Target Price with Clear Divergence in Ratings

The consensus average target price has not changed over the past 30 days, remaining at 436.08, while the median also stayed at 435. The current range is between 370 and 491 across 14 analysts, compared with 16 in the 2026-09-04 snapshot, indicating a decline in the number of participants without a change in the average. At the current price of 354.08, the consensus remains above the price, but the wide range reflects a notable divergence in estimates.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.46
Hold
Analyst coverage
46
Buy conviction
48%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
3↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
33%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time46 analysts rating
6
16
19
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.25 → 3.46
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Morgan Stanley
    Mixed
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-01
    Piper Sandler
    OverweightSell
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-01
    Morgan Stanley
    HoldOverweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    327.85x
    4.75x38.04x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    165.59x
    3.92x31.36x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    142.51x
    2.82x22.58x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    0.4%
    -31.0%15.4%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    11.8%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -35.7%
    -156.9%134.5%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    18.9%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    3.2%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    15.20
    -2.966.32
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Tesla operates through an ecosystem that combines electric vehicle manufacturing and sales, FSD autonomous driving software, energy storage, and vehicle, charging, and insurance services. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company said Model Y achieved record levels in markets including the Netherlands, Australia, and New Zealand, while the number of paid FSD customers reached approximately 1.5 million globally; 55% paid upfront and 45% used subscriptions. New business drivers also include Robotaxi, Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus, alongside Megapack and computing, chip, and solar infrastructure.

Tesla recorded fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $28.2 billion, gross profit of $4.8 billion, net income of $1.1 billion, and earnings per share of $0.32. These figures represent a gross margin of approximately 17.0% and a net margin of approximately 3.9%, compared with revenue of $22.4 billion, gross profit of $4.7 billion, and net income of $477 million in fiscal Q1 2026. On a trailing twelve-month basis, revenue reached $103.6 billion, gross profit $19.5 billion, and net income $3.8 billion.

The business mix reveals a clear divergence in margins during fiscal Q2 2026. Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits declined from 19.2% to 16.3%, and energy margin fell from 39.5% to 20.4% despite a 53% quarter-over-quarter increase in storage deployments to 13.5 gigawatt-hours, while services and other activities margin improved from 9.2% to a record 14.1%. Net income also benefited from a $1 billion revaluation gain on the SpaceX holding, offset by a negative impact of approximately $300 million from currencies and $100 million from Bitcoin, meaning reported profit does not reflect operating performance alone.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Tesla achieved record deliveries for fiscal Q2 2026, with quarter-over-quarter growth of 60% in the Americas, 27% in Asia-Pacific, and 12% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and ended the quarter with its largest order backlog since 2023.
  • FSD has become a direct driver of demand and recurring revenue; the service was activated at delivery in approximately 55% of North American deliveries during fiscal Q2 2026, and the number of paid customers globally reached approximately 1.5 million. The company expects most subsequent monetization growth to come from subscriptions.
  • Tesla announced on August 24, 2026, that it had received approval to deploy up to 5,000 Robotaxi vehicles in Nevada, after saying on its July 22, 2026, call that the fleet was operating in seven U.S. markets. It also reported that the program had completed more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving across six cities and two states without notable incidents, according to management's description on the call.
  • Energy storage deployments reached 13.5 gigawatt-hours in fiscal Q2 2026, up 53% quarter over quarter and representing the second-highest quarterly level for this business. Management believes Megapack demand benefits from data centers' need to balance fluctuations in electricity consumption, but expects the long-term energy margin to stabilize in the low-to-mid-twenties range.
  • The company began production of Cybercab and Semi and said it would soon begin production of Optimus and Megapack 3, alongside operating its lithium refinery and cathode refinery and expanding battery cell production. These projects increase potential production capacity, but are also tied to capital expenditures that the company expects to exceed $25 billion in fiscal 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Growth in deliveries and the order backlog supports the core business; Tesla achieved record deliveries for fiscal Q2 2026 and recorded quarter-over-quarter growth in all three regions it disclosed, with the order backlog reaching its highest level since 2023.
  • +FSD and Robotaxi could shift a larger share of Tesla's model toward recurring software and services revenue; the number of paid FSD customers reached approximately 1.5 million, and the company received approval on August 24, 2026, to deploy up to 5,000 Robotaxi vehicles in Nevada.
  • +The energy business gives Tesla a growth path separate from vehicle sales, after storage deployments rose 53% quarter over quarter to 13.5 gigawatt-hours in fiscal Q2 2026, with an order backlog described by management as strong and demand linked to data centers and the electrification of the economy.
  • +Services and other activities margin improved from 9.2% to 14.1% in fiscal Q2 2026, the highest reported level for this business, supported by higher volume and improved cost management across used vehicles, charging, service centers, and insurance.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $436.08, within a wide range of $370 to $491, while the highest target is below the 52-week range peak of $498.83, and the consensus remains neutral. The dispersion in targets reflects uncertainty between the opportunities in FSD, Robotaxi, and energy on one hand, and margin pressure, capital expenditures, and regulatory risks on the other; the valuation multiples cited in the July 31, 2026, report, including a price-to-earnings ratio of 286 times, also assume strong execution of the new growth projects.

HoldAnalyst target: $436.08(+18.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What are Tesla's key figures for fiscal Q2 2026?

Revenue reached $28.2 billion, gross profit $4.8 billion, and net income $1.1 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. Earnings per share were $0.32, with a calculated gross margin of approximately 17.0% and a net margin of approximately 3.9%. By comparison, fiscal Q1 2026 recorded revenue of $22.4 billion and net income of $477 million. Fiscal Q2 2026 net income also included a $1 billion revaluation gain on the SpaceX holding, offset by a combined negative impact of approximately $400 million from currencies and Bitcoin.

Has FSD become an important source of revenue for Tesla?

The number of paid FSD customers reached approximately 1.5 million globally in fiscal Q2 2026. Upfront purchases accounted for 55% of those customers, while subscriptions represented 45%. In North America, FSD subscriptions were activated at delivery in approximately 55% of vehicles during the same quarter. Tesla expects most growth in FSD monetization to come through subscriptions after removing the purchase option from most markets.

How far has Tesla's Robotaxi project progressed?

Tesla said on its July 22, 2026, call that the Robotaxi fleet had expanded to seven U.S. markets and that the program had completed more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving across six cities and two states without notable incidents, according to management's description. On August 24, 2026, the company received approval to deploy up to 5,000 Robotaxi vehicles in Nevada. Management explained that expansion is constrained by the need to improve reliability and meet differing regulatory requirements across cities and states. Cybercab also needs to collect driving data specific to its new platform before the number of vehicles can be increased significantly.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −China represents significant financial and operational exposure; a July 31, 2026, news report stated that the market accounts for approximately 22% of Tesla's revenue and that the company was considering options including selling, spinning off, or shutting down its operations there. Any exit could reduce revenue and weaken the manufacturing base and supply chain, while the scenario was not an announced transaction as of that date and its outcome remained subject to change.
  • −Profitability faces pressure despite revenue growth; automotive margin excluding regulatory credits declined from 19.2% to 16.3% in fiscal Q2 2026, and energy margin fell from 39.5% to 20.4%. Pressure on the energy business included a warranty settlement of approximately $240 million related to supplier cells, the non-recurrence of tariff benefits exceeding $200 million, and declining industrial storage prices amid increasing competition.
  • −Tesla is entering a heavy investment cycle that could pressure cash flow; free cash flow was negative in fiscal Q2 2026 after capital expenditures more than doubled quarter over quarter. The company expects capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion in fiscal 2026 and to continue growing for two to three years, with potential debt facilities allowing it to borrow up to $30 billion.
  • −Expanding production depends on easing bottlenecks in batteries, electronic components, memory, and chips, and management explicitly said production growth would be supply-chain constrained. It also described scaling Optimus production as the most difficult manufacturing challenge Tesla has undertaken because of the absence of an established supply chain and the novelty of most robot components.
  • −Regulatory and legal exposure increased in August 2026; China ordered the recall of approximately 3 million vehicles for software updates, the company's largest recall in that market, although an over-the-air remedy may limit direct costs. On August 21, 2026, news reports stated that Tesla was ordered to pay $243 million in a case related to Autopilot crash data, a development that could increase scrutiny of autonomous driving technologies.
  • −The valuation remains sensitive to the execution of Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus projects; a July 31, 2026, report cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 286 times, EV/EBITDA of 123.6 times, and a free cash flow yield of 0.5%. With a neutral analyst consensus, any delay in expansion or persistence of low margins could pressure a valuation that is heavily based on future growth.
Why did automotive and energy margins decline in fiscal Q2 2026?

Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits declined from 19.2% to 16.3%, but management said the comparison was affected by approximately $230 million in warranty and tariff benefits recognized in the previous quarter that did not recur. Commodity prices and interest-rate subsidy costs also increased the cost of the automotive business. In energy, margin fell from 39.5% to 20.4% due to a warranty settlement of approximately $240 million related to supplier cells and the non-recurrence of tariff benefits exceeding $200 million. Management expects the long-term energy margin to stabilize in the low-to-mid-twenties range as industrial storage prices decline amid competition.

How large is Tesla's capital expenditure plan?

Tesla expects its capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion in fiscal 2026, after more than doubling quarter over quarter in fiscal Q2 2026. This resulted in negative free cash flow during the quarter, and management expects spending to continue growing for two to three years. Investments include Robotaxi, Optimus, the semiconductor factory, solar energy, artificial intelligence computing, and expansions in vehicle manufacturing. The company is also working to secure debt facilities that would provide borrowing capacity of up to $30 billion to accelerate these projects.

What are the main risks to Tesla's business in China during 2026?

A July 31, 2026, news report stated that China accounts for approximately 22% of Tesla's revenue and that the company was considering selling, spinning off, or shutting down its operations there, without announcing a final transaction. On August 21, 2026, Chinese regulators ordered the recall of approximately 3 million vehicles for software updates, the company's largest recall in the Chinese market. An over-the-air remedy may reduce the direct cost, but regulatory and reputational risks remain. The amount of revenue linked to China increases the significance of any decision affecting sales, manufacturing, or the supply chain in that market.