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Home
Stocks
Tower Semiconductor Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall50
Balanced — near the middle of the marketMomentum TrapF 7/9Better than 50% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
11
88.4x▼17.6xBottom tier
▸
Growth
74
14.9%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
36
7.9%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
53
—2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
70
—2.15%Top tier
▸
Momentum
82
266.1%▲2.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
41
4▲3Around median
TSEM

TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd.

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. · NASDAQ
Market Open
233.82
▲ ⁦+4.57%⁩ (+10.22)
Market Cap$25.2B
Beta0.89
52w Low52w High
64.83319.94
Last Week
⁦+12.38%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.80%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-12.47%⁩
Last Year
⁦+255.84%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$224
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$305
⁦+36%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$270–$330⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$110
⁦-51%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.3⁩% discount · ⁦7⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$110–$305⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$302.50
⁦+29.4%⁩
Current Price $233.82·Median $305.00
Low
$270.00
High
$330.00
Current price
$233.82
Average target
$302.50
Street summary

Slight Monthly Decline with Limited Recent Improvement

The consensus price target rose to 302.5 from 300 over the past day and two weeks, an increase of 2.5 or 0.83%, while the number of analysts remained at five. However, compared with August 19, consensus declined by 12.5 or 3.97% from 315, indicating a limited monthly deterioration in the price outlook despite the recent improvement.

As of 2026-09-18
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-4.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.83
Buy
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
83%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
26%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.80 → 3.83
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-18
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-07
    National Bank
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Bank of America Securities
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    88.38x
    7.02x56.18x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    51.21x
    5.21x41.67x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    43.87x
    4.43x35.48x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    2.1%
    -54.9%10.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.9%
    -18.1%67.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    43.8%
    -155.6%189.9%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    26.9%
    13.2%79.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    7.9%
    -63.6%26.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

Tower Semiconductor operates as a specialty semiconductor foundry, generating revenue from manufacturing technologies including silicon photonics SiPho, Silicon Germanium, RFSOI solutions for mobile communications, power management, and image sensors. In Q2 fiscal year 2026, RF infrastructure accounted for 49% of revenue, power management 14%, mobile communications 12%, and sensors and displays 12%, making optical connectivity and AI data center applications the largest driver of the current mix.

The company reported record revenue of $460 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026, up 24% year over year and 11% quarter over quarter. Gross profit reached $138 million at a record gross margin of 30%, operating profit was $90 million at a 20% margin, and net profit reached $91 million at a 20% margin, compared with $47 million in Q2 fiscal year 2025. GAAP earnings per share were $0.80 basic and $0.79 diluted, while adjusted earnings per share were $0.88, exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.67.

On an annual basis, fiscal year 2025 revenue rose to $1.6 billion from $1.4 billion in fiscal year 2024, and net income increased to $220.5 million from $207.9 million. However, fiscal year 2025 gross profit of $363.9 million remained below the $466.3 million recorded in fiscal year 2022, illustrating that the significant improvement in Q2 fiscal year 2026 margins represents an important operational shift that needs to continue through the new capacity expansions.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Silicon photonics revenue in Q2 fiscal year 2026 increased by more than 60% quarter over quarter and more than 270% year over year, reaching an annualized run rate of more than $680 million. The company is targeting a $1 billion annualized run rate in Q4 fiscal year 2026 as the previously announced capacity is qualified.
  • Tower announced contracts representing approximately $1.3 billion in silicon photonics revenue for 2027, and it also received $290 million in advance payments in Q1 fiscal year 2026, most of which was for reserving 2027 capacity. Management says the additional Track 1 capacity is required and committed by several key customers, providing tangible contractual support for the expansion plan.
  • Management guided to midpoint revenue of $520 million in Q3 fiscal year 2026, equivalent to an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $2 billion. It also raised its 2028 model to $3.6 billion in revenue, $1.63 billion in gross profit at a 45% margin, and $1.2 billion in net profit at a 33% margin.
  • The two-track expansion in Japan is a pillar of growth; Track 1 targets full production readiness in Q4 fiscal year 2027 through Arai and Fab 7, while Track 2 targets a fourfold increase in Japanese 300-millimeter wafer capacity, with equipment operation planned by Q4 fiscal year 2028. The expansion focuses on SiPho, Silicon Germanium, and advanced optical packaging for AI and data center applications.
  • Management expects NPO solutions to become a double-digit percentage of silicon photonics shipments, particularly in the second half of 2027, and also expects tens of millions of dollars in revenue from integrated lasers during 2027. Meanwhile, the number of SiPho-based coherent optical units manufactured through the collaboration with Marvell has surpassed several million units.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Record growth in SiPho provides operational evidence that Tower is benefiting from the expansion of optical connectivity within AI infrastructure; this business grew by more than 270% annually in Q2 fiscal year 2026, with approximately $1.3 billion in contracts for 2027.
  • +Q2 fiscal year 2026 demonstrated strong operating leverage, as gross profit jumped 72% annually to $138 million on revenue growth of 24%, while net profit rose 95% to $91 million. The contribution of incremental revenue to gross profit was 58%, and to operating profit and net profit was 55% for each.
  • +The financial position supports execution of the expansions; assets totaled $3.8 billion and shareholders' equity reached $3.1 billion at the end of June 2026, with a current ratio of approximately 4.9 times. Management confirmed that Track 2 is planned to be funded from internally generated cash, with no planned reliance on dilutive equity raising.
  • +Growth is not limited to SiPho, as management expects 300-millimeter RFSOI wafer starts to triple by mid-2027 compared with Q2 fiscal year 2026 shipments, driven by design wins in premium smartphones. Power management also recorded annual growth and strong demand for 200- and 300-millimeter BCD technologies.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $315 and a relatively narrow target range between $300 and $330. The average is close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $319.94, compared with a low of $56.54, reflecting a significant revaluation tied to accelerating SiPho growth and improving margins, but it increases the stock's sensitivity to any shortfall against Q3 fiscal year 2026 guidance or the ambitious 2028 model.

BuyAnalyst target: $315(+34.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove TSEM's record results in Q2 fiscal year 2026?

Revenue reached $460 million, up 24% annually and 11% quarterly, driven particularly by RF infrastructure and silicon photonics. SiPho revenue grew by more than 270% annually, while RF infrastructure represented 49% of total revenue. The stronger mix and operating leverage resulted in a 30% gross margin and net profit of $91 million, up 95% from Q2 fiscal year 2025.

What is the significance of the $1.3 billion in silicon photonics contracts?

The contracts represent approximately $1.3 billion in SiPho revenue for 2027 and are supported by $290 million in advance payments received by Tower in Q1 fiscal year 2026, most of which was for reserving 2027 capacity. Management says the additional Track 1 capacity is required and committed by several key customers, and that planned wafer starts could support capacity exceeding three times Q2 fiscal year 2026 shipments. However, management clarified that not all available capacity consists of final reservations, even if it is effectively allocated to customer demand.

What is Tower's guidance for Q3 fiscal year 2026 and its model for 2028?

The company guided to midpoint revenue of $520 million in Q3 fiscal year 2026, equivalent to an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $2 billion. The 2028 model targets revenue of $3.6 billion, gross profit of $1.63 billion at a 45% margin, and operating profit of $1.38 billion at a 38% margin. The model also targets net profit of $1.2 billion and a net margin of 33%, but assumes fabs operate at 85% and that qualification succeeds within the assumed schedules, prices, and costs.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −The 2028 model depends on complex execution involving multiple variables, including assumptions of operating fabs at 85%, wafer selling prices, equipment costs, tool installation schedules, and the qualification of processes and customer products. The chief financial officer identified the selling price per wafer as the variable that flows almost entirely through to margins, either upward or downward.
  • −RF infrastructure accounted for 49% of Q2 fiscal year 2026 revenue, while the announced $1.3 billion in SiPho contracts for 2027 is tied to several key customers. This heavy weighting toward the optical connectivity business makes results more sensitive to the pace of data center customer spending and the qualification of their capacity and products.
  • −Competitive production capacity is increasing across the industry, and the call referenced expansion plans by GlobalFoundries, STMicro, and Samsung. Despite contracts extending through 2028 and joint development relationships, management acknowledged that it had not determined the amount of additional capacity entering the market, leaving risks to market share and pricing after supply expands.
  • −300-millimeter RFSOI revenue declined by 14% year over year in Q2 fiscal year 2026 during the transition from 200-millimeter to 300-millimeter manufacturing and the consolidation of production in Fab 10. A return to stronger growth in this business depends on converting design wins into wafer starts that reach three times the current level by mid-2027.
  • −The SiPho and Silicon Germanium expansion program requires capital expenditure of $920 million; approximately 50% had been paid through Q2 fiscal year 2026, while the remaining half is expected to be paid during the second half of fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027. The final schedule for installing and qualifying Track 2 tools had also not been completed as of the August 4, 2026 call, creating timing and execution risks.
  • −Net insider trading during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 11, 2026 was negative $60 million, with 37 sales and no purchases recorded. This remains a weaker trading signal than the operational risks, because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data indicates otherwise.
How will the Japan expansions affect Tower's production capacity?

Track 1 targets the repurposing of the Arai facility and an increase in Fab 7 production, with full production readiness expected in Q4 fiscal year 2027. Track 2 targets a fourfold increase in Japanese 300-millimeter capacity, with a primary focus on SiPho followed by Silicon Germanium, and equipment operation planned by Q4 fiscal year 2028. Management indicated a targeted minimum of between 20,000 and 25,000 SiPho wafers per month within the long-term expansion, with the potential to rise above that level.

Does Tower's growth depend entirely on silicon photonics?

Silicon photonics is the fastest-growing driver, but it is not the only business; power management represented 14% of Q2 fiscal year 2026 revenue, while mobile communications and sensors and displays each represented 12%. Management expects 300-millimeter RFSOI wafer starts to triple by mid-2027 compared with Q2 fiscal year 2026 shipments. It also sees growing demand for machine-vision sensors used to inspect DDR and HBM lines and electric vehicle batteries during the two years following the August 4, 2026 call.

What are the main risks that could prevent Tower from reaching its 2028 targets?

The model depends on achieving fab utilization of 85%, maintaining wafer selling prices, controlling costs, and completing tool installation and the qualification of processes and customer products on schedule. The final schedule for installing and qualifying Track 2 tools was still being completed according to the August 4, 2026 call, while approximately half of the $920 million capital expenditure program remains to be paid during the second half of fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027. Risks also include capacity expansions by competitors such as GlobalFoundries, STMicro, and Samsung, alongside a 14% annual decline in 300-millimeter RFSOI revenue during the manufacturing transition.