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Home
Stocks
Tractor Supply Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall38
Weak — below market medianContrarianF 6/9Congress sellingInsider cluster buyBetter than 38% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
68
17.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
34
4.0%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
66
13.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
51
3.4x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
25
2.79%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
5
-42.4%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
85
19▲3Top tier
TSCO

TSCO Tractor Supply Company

Tractor Supply Company · NASDAQ
Market Closed
33.01
▼ ⁦-1.52%⁩ (-0.51)
Market Cap$17.6B
Beta0.45
52w Low52w High
28.3660.86
Last Week
⁦-5.31%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.46%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+7.28%⁩
Last Year
⁦-44.13%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$33
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$38
⁦+15%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$28–$51⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$15
⁦-55%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$15–$38⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$37.00
⁦+12.1%⁩
Current Price $33.01·Median $38.00
Low
$28.00
High
$51.00
Current price
$33.01
Average target
$37.00
Street summary

TSCO Target Price Revision Analysis

Bearish tilt

Tractor Supply (TSCO) stock has seen a notable decline in analyst optimism over the past 30 days, with the average target price falling by 14.49% to $37 compared to $43.27 in mid-July. This downward adjustment occurred despite the number of analysts remaining constant (11 analysts), indicating a collective reassessment of the stock's fair value at the current price of $35.83, with a wide gap in estimates ranging from $28 to $51, reflecting uncertainty regarding future performance.

As of 2026-08-16
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.60
Buy
Analyst coverage
30
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Target dispersion
70%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time30 analysts rating
3
12
15
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.53 → 3.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Telsey Advisory Group
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Morgan Stanley
    Negative
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.19x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.77x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.47x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.5%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.0%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -5.9%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    35.6%
    12.0%66.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    13.1%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.42x
    0.65x5.48x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.8%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    47.9%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

Tractor Supply Company operates a retail network serving the rural lifestyle, generating revenue from the sale of farm and livestock supplies, pet care products, home and property maintenance items, as well as seasonal goods, big-ticket products, digital services, and delivery services. Approximately 40% of its addressable market is tied to farm, livestock, and rural economies, around 20% to the pet sector, and another 20% to home improvement and property maintenance. Consumable, usable, and edible products form the most resilient sales base, while seasonal and big-ticket goods are more affected by fuel costs, weather, and discretionary spending.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, net sales rose by approximately 2% to $4.5 billion, driven by new stores, but comparable store sales declined about 1.5% because of lower transaction counts and weak discretionary demand, particularly for big-ticket goods, which posted a mid-single-digit decline. Reported gross profit was $1.68 billion, up 2.6%, and gross margin expanded 11 basis points to 37.1%; on an adjusted basis, gross profit was $1.69 billion and the margin was 37.2%. Adjusted operating income was $548.3 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.81, while the results included a $5.9 million inventory write-off and a $65.8 million charge related to the Petsense restructuring, along with $9.5 million in VIP Petcare acquisition costs.

EDGAR data show that fiscal 2025 revenue was $15.5 billion, with gross profit of $5.7 billion, net income of $1.1 billion, and earnings per share of $2.06. On a trailing-twelve-month basis through 2026, revenue was $15.6 billion, gross profit was $5.7 billion, and net income was $1.1 billion, indicating limited sales growth without a corresponding expansion in gross profit or net income. This reflects the contrast between the resilience of essential goods and the pressure on discretionary sales and operating costs.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Conditions in May 2026 weighed heavily on Q2 fiscal 2026; weakness in big-ticket goods and hardline spring merchandise reduced comparable store sales by approximately two percentage points, amid higher fuel prices and drought in key markets in the southeastern United States.
  • The pet business showed sequential improvement from Q1 to Q2 fiscal 2026, and Freshpet reached more than 250 stores, with plans to be available in at least 700 stores by the end of fiscal 2026; more than 40% of Freshpet buyers were either new pet food customers at Tractor Supply or returning customers.
  • The acquisition of VIP Petcare, completed in Q2 fiscal 2026, added relationships with approximately one million pets annually through a network of 2,500 veterinarians in 39 states, connecting veterinary services, prescriptions, and products across physical and digital channels.
  • Digital sales posted double-digit growth in Q2 fiscal 2026, driven by higher traffic, improved conversion, and strong store-based delivery, while the number of Final Mile deliveries during the first half of fiscal 2026 equaled the total for fiscal 2025, prompting the company to accelerate the service expansion.
  • The pricing and value campaign improved customers' perception of Tractor Supply's prices by approximately 180 basis points year over year, according to company surveys, while Neighbor's Club membership covers more than 80% of sales volume and enables customer segments to be targeted with value messaging.
  • Management expects fiscal 2026 net sales growth of between 2.5% and 3.5%, comparable store sales between negative 1% and flat, an adjusted operating margin between 8.5% and 8.8%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share between $1.90 and $2.00.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The essential product mix maintains a degree of stability; consumable, usable, and edible product categories remained positive throughout Q2 fiscal 2026 despite a 1.5% decline in comparable store sales.
  • +The expansion of the pet ecosystem provides a defined growth path, combining Freshpet in at least 700 stores by the end of fiscal 2026, VIP Petcare serving approximately one million pets annually, and improvements to subscriptions, the digital experience, and Project Fusion formats.
  • +Digital execution indicators support the case for capturing a larger share of customer spending; digital sales grew at a double-digit rate, and Final Mile deliveries in six months equaled the total for fiscal 2025.
  • +The company plans to repurchase shares near the upper end of its original range of $375 million to $450 million, while insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 4, 2026, recorded four purchases, no sales, and a net total of 652,394.4, according to the provided signal.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on TSCO is neutral, with an average price target of $37 and a wide range between $28 and $51. The average is approximately 30% above the 52-week range low of $28.36, but approximately 41% below its high of $62.26; this divergence reflects the market's balancing of the strength of essential products and digital and pet initiatives on one hand, against declining comparable sales, the withdrawal of the long-term framework, and margin pressure on the other. The provided data do not include a valid price-to-earnings ratio, so a reliable judgment based on the earnings multiple cannot be made.

HoldAnalyst target: $37(+12.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why did TSCO's comparable store sales decline in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Comparable store sales declined approximately 1.5% because of lower transaction counts and weak discretionary spending, despite net sales growth of approximately 2% to $4.5 billion. The weakness was concentrated in May 2026, when higher fuel prices and drought in southeastern United States markets weighed on seasonal and big-ticket goods. Hardline spring merchandise and big-ticket goods reduced comparable store sales for the quarter by approximately two percentage points in May alone, while consumable, usable, and edible products remained positive.

Why is Tractor Supply's acquisition of VIP Petcare important?

Tractor Supply completed the acquisition of VIP Petcare during Q2 fiscal 2026. The business adds relationships with approximately one million pets annually and a network of 2,500 veterinarians in 39 states. The company aims to connect veterinary services, prescriptions, and products across stores and digital channels, but the acquisition added $9.5 million in costs to the quarter's results.

Has TSCO's pet segment turnaround plan begun to show results?

Management said on July 23, 2026, that pet performance improved sequentially from Q1 to Q2 fiscal 2026 as the company continued to maintain its market share. Freshpet reached more than 250 stores, and more than 40% of its buyers were either new pet food customers at Tractor Supply or returning customers. The company is targeting the expansion of Freshpet to at least 700 stores by the end of fiscal 2026, alongside improvements to subscriptions, digital shopping, and the wet cat food assortment.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Demand faces several simultaneous pressures in Tractor Supply's core markets: approximately 40% of the addressable market is tied to farms, livestock, and the rural economy affected by higher fuel prices and drought, 20% to pets amid weak industry growth, and 20% to home improvement constrained by low housing turnover.
  • −Operating activity slowed in Q2 fiscal 2026 despite revenue growth of approximately 2%; comparable store sales declined 1.5%, transactions fell, and big-ticket goods dropped by a mid-single-digit percentage, while trailing-twelve-month data through 2026 showed gross profit and net income remaining at approximately $5.7 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, compared with fiscal 2025.
  • −Management lowered its fiscal 2026 outlook to comparable store sales between negative 1% and flat and an adjusted operating margin between 8.5% and 8.8%, and withdrew its long-term financial framework because pressures on the core business outweighed the contribution from strategic initiatives.
  • −Margins face pressure from higher freight and fuel costs and a diminished tariff rebate benefit in the second half of fiscal 2026; management also expects gross margin to decline year over year during that period and start-up costs for the eleventh distribution center equivalent to approximately 20 basis points in each of Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2026.
  • −The closure of approximately 75 Petsense stores with negative store-level cash flow reveals weakness in part of the portfolio; in Q2 fiscal 2026, this resulted in a $65.8 million charge and a $5.9 million inventory write-off, in addition to $9.5 million in VIP Petcare acquisition costs.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus and the absence of a forward price-to-earnings ratio in the provided data reflect a high degree of valuation uncertainty; targets range widely between $28 and $51, and the $37 average is approximately 41% below the 52-week range high of $62.26, highlighting repricing risk if comparable sales and margins do not improve.
  • What is Tractor Supply's outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

    Management expects fiscal 2026 net sales growth of between 2.5% and 3.5%, and comparable store sales between negative 1% and flat. It expects an adjusted operating margin between 8.5% and 8.8% and adjusted diluted earnings per share between $1.90 and $2.00. It also expects greater pressure on Q3 fiscal 2026 profitability because of costs for the new distribution center, weaker gross margin, and more difficult year-over-year comparisons.

    Why is Tractor Supply closing approximately 75 Petsense stores?

    The company announced on July 23, 2026, that the selected stores generate negative store-level cash flow within a chain comprising more than two hundred stores. The decision resulted in a $65.8 million charge and a $5.9 million inventory write-off in Q2 fiscal 2026. Management intends to redirect resources toward higher-growth, higher-return opportunities while keeping Petsense separate from Tractor Supply's core pet business.

    How do digital channels and Final Mile support TSCO's growth?

    Digital sales achieved double-digit growth in Q2 fiscal 2026, driven by higher traffic, improved conversion, and strong store-based delivery. During the first half of fiscal 2026, the company completed as many Final Mile deliveries as it did during all of fiscal 2025. This demand prompted management to accelerate the service rollout while redirecting part of capital spending toward Final Mile, Project Fusion upgrades, and store sites.