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Stocks
Tenaris S.A.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall91
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Better than 91% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
71
15.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
14
2.3%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
58
10.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
93
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
66
0.51%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
78
55.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
88
7▲3Top tier
TS

TS Tenaris S.A.

Tenaris S.A. · NYSE
Market Closed
57.39
▲ ⁦+0.83%⁩ (+0.47)
Market Cap$30.8B
Beta0.48
52w Low52w High
33.6564.60
Last Week
⁦+2.52%⁩
Last Month
⁦+7.39%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.64%⁩
Last Year
⁦+63.50%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$57
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$60
⁦+5%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$60–$80⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$54
⁦-5%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$54–$60⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$66.67
⁦+16.2%⁩
Current Price $57.39·Median $60.00
Low
$60.00
High
$80.00
Current price
$57.39
Average target
$66.67
Street summary

Consensus Rises as Coverage Breadth Declines

The consensus target price rose over the last 30 days from 62.34 to 66.67, an increase of 4.33 points or 6.95%, while the consensus remained unchanged over the last 7 days. The current price is 57.39 versus a consensus target of 66.67, while the target range is between 60 and 80, with a median of 60; this reflects clear divergence among estimates despite all targets being above the current price.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+7.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.58
Buy
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
58%
Mixed
Target dispersion
35%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
2
5
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.69 → 3.58
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-18
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral· $60.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.26x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.60x
    3.36x26.89x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.85x
    2.12x16.98x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.8%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    2.3%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -48.8%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    33.9%
    7.8%72.1%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    10.0%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.5%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    7.7%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Tenaris S.A. manufactures and supplies pipes used in the energy sector, including OCTG pipes for drilling operations, seamless pipes, line pipes, and coatings for offshore projects. The company generates revenue from selling these products and providing supply chain management services to customers such as Aramco, ADNOC, Eni, and TotalEnergies, in addition to its hydraulic fracturing business in Argentina; the Tubes segment remains the main driver of results, while management described the fracturing business as smaller than the group.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue was $3.0 billion, down 4% year over year and 4% from the previous quarter, due to the deferral of shipments to Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar following disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. EBITDA was $649 million, representing a margin of approximately 21.6%, after declining 12% from the previous quarter, while net income was $492 million, representing a net margin of approximately 16.4%, after declining 13%. The Tubes segment’s average selling price remained broadly stable both year over year and quarter over quarter, while weak fixed-cost absorption and higher raw material and logistics costs weighed on profitability.

In fiscal year 2025, Tenaris recorded revenue of $12.0 billion, gross profit of $4.1 billion, and net income of $2 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 34.2% and a net margin of approximately 16.7%. These results compare with revenue of $12.5 billion and net income of $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2024, and revenue of $14.9 billion and net income of $4.0 billion in fiscal year 2023, showing that earnings remained below the fiscal year 2023 peak.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management expects fiscal second-half 2026 revenue and EBITDA to be similar to the first half, with fiscal Q3 2026 remaining close to Q2, followed by a meaningful improvement in Q4 supported by production volume exceeding one million tons, higher volumes, and some price increases.
  • The base case announced on August 6, 2026 excluded $130 million of shipments to Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar; if navigation resumes, Tenaris would need 70–90 days to ship and invoice these materials. Management described these shipments as high-specification, good-margin materials compared with the rest of the portfolio, so their return represents additional upside and is not part of the base-case outlook.
  • U.S. drilling activity has increased by approximately 10%, or about 50 rigs, since the beginning of the conflict referenced in the call, and the company expects another 10–15 rigs to be added through the end of fiscal year 2026. The Pipe Logix index has also risen by approximately 9% since the beginning of the year, and management expects an additional increase of at least 5% by year-end, with the increases flowing through to Tenaris’s prices with a one-quarter lag.
  • The number of high-specification rigs in Vaca Muerta increased by 9 rigs since the beginning of fiscal year 2026 to reach 42 rigs on August 6, 2026, and the company plans to start operating its third hydraulic fracturing unit in fiscal Q4 2026. In Canada, Tenaris launched a $230 million investment program to increase the effective production capacity of the Sault Ste. Marie plant.
  • The offshore project portfolio has grown, and management expects it to begin contributing to sales from fiscal Q4 2026 through fiscal year 2027. Activities include supplying line pipe and OCTG requirements for four wells in the Cronos project, managing the OCTG supply chain for the GranMorgu project from the new service center in Suriname, and beginning deliveries of line pipes and coatings for the Sakarya project.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Geographic diversification provides clear resilience: while shipments to Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar were disrupted in fiscal Q2 2026, OCTG supplies to Aramco and ADNOC continued, and the company increased industrial activity in the United States, with the Bay City plant producing at record levels.
  • +The North American activity cycle provides potential support for volumes and prices, as Tenaris expects its U.S. shipments to grow in line with the increase in rig count, while its prices lag Pipe Logix increases by one quarter. Management also expects U.S. imports to remain limited if a favorable decision is issued in the new trade case.
  • +The company has the financial capacity to invest and return capital; it generated $518 million of operating cash flow and $396 million of free cash flow in fiscal Q2 2026, and ended the quarter with net cash of $3.6 billion. The board approved an interim dividend of $0.59 per share or $1.18 per ADS, totaling approximately $600 million, payable on November 25, 2026.
  • +Improving volumes could support fixed-cost absorption beginning in fiscal Q4 2026, when management expects volume to exceed one million tons. This coincides with price increases and a growing contribution from offshore projects through fiscal year 2027.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus for TS shares is “Buy,” with an average target of $66.67 and a wide target range of $60 to $80; the average is approximately 3.2% above the 52-week range high of $64.60, while the range low is $33.65. The provided data does not include a price-to-earnings ratio or earnings per share, so the stock’s valuation here depends more heavily on expectations for a recovery in volumes and margins in fiscal Q4 2026 and the realization of the offshore project portfolio, weighed against Hormuz risks and results remaining below the fiscal year 2023 peak.

BuyAnalyst target: $66.67(+16.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What caused Tenaris’s weak results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Fiscal Q2 2026 sales were approximately $3.0 billion, down 4% year over year and 4% quarter over quarter. The main reason was the deferral of shipments to Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar due to disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while supplies to Aramco and ADNOC continued. EBITDA declined 12% quarter over quarter to $649 million, while net income fell 13% to $492 million due to higher logistics and raw material costs and weak fixed-cost absorption.

What is Tenaris’s outlook for the second half of fiscal year 2026?

On the August 6, 2026 call, management expected fiscal second-half 2026 revenue and EBITDA to be similar to the first half. It expects fiscal Q3 2026 to resemble Q2 in terms of revenue and margin, before a jump in Q4 as volume exceeds one million tons. The base case does not include $130 million of shipments to Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, so the restoration of those shipments would be incremental to the announced outlook.

How does Tenaris benefit from increased drilling activity in the United States?

Management reported on August 6, 2026 that U.S. drilling activity had increased by approximately 10%, equivalent to about 50 rigs, since the beginning of the conflict referenced in the call. It expects another 10–15 rigs to be added through the end of fiscal year 2026, with Tenaris’s shipments growing in line with activity. Pipe Logix has risen by approximately 9% since the beginning of the year, and the company expects an additional increase of at least 5% by year-end, with this movement flowing through to its prices with a one-quarter lag.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Continued disruption to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz poses a direct risk to revenue and logistics flows; it has already delayed shipments to Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar and reduced fiscal Q2 2026 sales by 4% both year over year and quarter over quarter. Management excluded $130 million of shipments from its base-case outlook and confirmed that completing them would require 70–90 days after navigation is restored.
  • −Margins face pressure from higher raw material, energy, and logistics costs and weak fixed-cost absorption; as a result, EBITDA fell 12% quarter over quarter to $649 million in fiscal Q2 2026. Management expects fiscal Q3 2026 revenue and margin to remain close to Q2, delaying the anticipated recovery until Q4.
  • −The annual financial statements show a slowdown from the fiscal year 2023 peak; revenue declined from $14.9 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $12.5 billion in fiscal year 2024 and then to $12.0 billion in fiscal year 2025. Net income also declined from $4.0 billion to $2.1 billion and then to $2 billion over the same periods.
  • −The product mix will weigh on fiscal Q3 2026, as the company combines the seasonal shutdown of European operations and lower purchases by some customers with shipments for the Sakarya project. Management said the SAW welded pipes supplied from Brazil to Turkey carry an average price and margin below the Tenaris average, and shipments will continue for three or four quarters.
  • −Competition from OCTG imports into the United States remains a risk if domestic prices rise enough for imports to regain competitiveness, or if a favorable decision is not issued in the new trade case. Management’s expectation that imports will remain limited during fiscal year 2026 is based on Section 232 tariffs and cases filed against imports that the company describes as unfairly traded.
  • −The valuation entails the risk of elevated expectations, as the average analyst target is $66.67, approximately 3.2% above the 52-week range high of $64.60, while the target range extends from $60 to $80. The provided data also does not include earnings per share or a price-to-earnings ratio that could be used to assess the valuation on an earnings basis.
How important are offshore projects to Tenaris’s portfolio?

Management said on August 6, 2026 that the offshore project portfolio had grown and that its impact on sales would begin in fiscal Q4 2026 and extend into fiscal year 2027. Tenaris is supporting Eni and TotalEnergies’ Cronos project with line pipe and OCTG requirements for four wells. It is also managing OCTG supplies for the GranMorgu project from its center in Suriname and has begun supplying line pipes and coatings for the Sakarya project in the Black Sea.

What is Tenaris’s liquidity and dividend position?

In fiscal Q2 2026, Tenaris generated $518 million of operating cash flow and spent $121 million on capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of $396 million. After paying $606 million in dividends, net cash stood at $3.6 billion at the end of the quarter. The board approved an interim dividend of $0.59 per share or $1.18 per ADS, totaling approximately $600 million, payable on November 25, 2026.

Have Tenaris’s results returned to fiscal year 2023 levels?

Annual results have not returned to fiscal year 2023 levels within the provided data. Revenue was $14.9 billion and net income was $4.0 billion in fiscal year 2023, before declining to $12.5 billion and $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2024. In fiscal year 2025, revenue fell to $12.0 billion and net income to $2 billion, although both remained well above fiscal year 2021 revenue of $6.5 billion and net income of $1.1 billion.