| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 25 | 30.4x | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 52 | 24.5% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 65 | 10.5% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 73 | 0.5x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 40 | 0.42% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 13 | -13.7% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 50 | 2 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Turning Point Brands operates in the consumer nicotine and tobacco products market through three main pillars: Modern Oral pouch products under the FRE and ALP brands, legacy Stoker’s products, and Zig-Zag products, including Natural Leaf Flat Wraps. The company generates revenue from direct-to-consumer sales and retail distribution, leveraging its existing relationships with retail chains to expand the shelf presence of FRE and ALP.
In Q1 fiscal 2026, consolidated sales increased 17% year over year to $124.3 million, and gross profit rose 14.6% to $68.3 million. Gross margin was 55%, down 100 basis points, while adjusted EBITDA reached $25.9 million at a 20.8% margin, exceeding the midpoint of the company’s guidance range despite higher spending on marketing and the sales force.
Modern Oral became the primary growth driver, generating net sales of $52 million, up 133%, and gross sales of $69 million, up 167%, and accounting for 42% of consolidated net sales versus 21% in Q1 fiscal 2025. Sales in the Stoker’s segment, which includes Modern Oral, reached approximately $88 million, equivalent to 70% of consolidated sales, while Zig-Zag sales declined 22% to $36.7 million, and revenue from legacy Stoker’s brands fell 3.5% to $36 million.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus rating is “Buy,” with an average price target of $118.67 and a relatively narrow range of $115 to $125. The average target falls within the 52-week range of $65.8–$146.9 but is approximately 19% below the top of that range, reflecting that analyst expectations do not assume a full return to the stock’s highest valuation during that period. This positive consensus should be weighed against EBITDA guidance of $70–90 million and pressure from spending and free cash flow during fiscal 2026.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
The main driver is Modern Oral under the FRE and ALP brands, whose net sales increased 133% to $52 million in Q1 fiscal 2026. Its gross sales rose 167% to $69 million, while its share of consolidated sales increased to 42% from 21% a year earlier. Based on this performance, the company raised its fiscal 2026 Modern Oral net sales guidance to $210–225 million.
FRE and ALP target two distinct consumer bases, allowing the company to present both brands to retailers without treating them as identical offerings. FRE continued expanding across larger regional and national retail chains, while ALP moved from a strong direct-to-consumer base onto retail shelves during Q1 fiscal 2026. The company expects new account wins to contribute to an approximately 70% increase in the number of chain stores by the end of 2026.
The company plans to spend between $80 million and $105 million during 2026 on expanding its sales force, marketing, distribution support, and brand building. In Q1 fiscal 2026, SG&A expenses increased to $55.8 million and included approximately $1 million for sales force expansion and approximately $7 million for increased marketing and brand-building initiatives. This, together with working capital and spending on U.S. manufacturing, resulted in negative free cash flow of $27.4 million, while full-year EBITDA guidance ranges from $70 million to $90 million.
TPB is ramping up the Louisville facility to localize Modern Oral production, increase supply control, and reduce exposure to shipping costs and tariffs. Management stated on May 7, 2026, that the equipment was in the facility and that initial machine productivity was making encouraging progress. The company expects unit economics and margins to improve as domestic inventory flows through the income statement and expects the category’s margin to approach 70% upon reaching sufficient scale by the end of the decade.
The most significant operational risks are Zig-Zag’s 22% decline to $36.7 million and the 3.5% decline in legacy Stoker’s brands to $36 million in Q1 fiscal 2026. Planned marketing spending of $80–105 million and quarterly negative free cash flow of $27.4 million also pressure profitability and liquidity. Additional risks include the rigorous PMTA regulatory process, competition from leaders with greater consumer awareness, and the impact of tariffs, which reduced Stoker’s margin by 350 basis points to 54%.
