| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 88 | 10.8x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 17 | -1.1% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 55 | 9.7% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 77 | 1.2x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 64 | 0.73% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 41 | 17.9% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 67 | 13 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Toll Brothers is one of the luxury homebuilders in the United States and generates most of its revenue from selling homes in select residential communities, with a mix of build-to-order and speculative homes. Its model is based on desirable locations, distinctive designs, and more than 45 design studios that allow customers to add upgrades, structural options, and lot premiums; these additions averaged $207 thousand, or 24% of the average base price, in fiscal Q3 2026. The move-up luxury segment accounted for the largest share at 61% of home sales revenue, compared with 23% for first-time buyers in the luxury category and 16% for the active-adult segment.
In fiscal Q3 2026, Toll Brothers delivered 2,662 homes and generated home sales revenue of $2.65 billion, with an average delivered price of approximately $996 thousand. Pre-tax income was $374.8 million and net income was $280.1 million, equivalent to $2.97 per diluted share, while adjusted gross margin reached 25.6%, exceeding the company's guidance of 25.25%. The company also signed 2,508 net contracts valued at $2.5 billion, representing year-over-year increases of 5% in units and 4% in value.
The company ended fiscal Q3 2026 with $3.3 billion in liquidity, including $1.1 billion in cash and $2.2 billion available under a revolving credit facility, while its net debt-to-capital ratio declined to 15.6% from 19.3% a year earlier. The available annual figures from EDGAR for fiscal 2018 indicate revenue of $7.1 billion, gross profit of $1.5 billion, net income of $748.2 million, and earnings per share of $4.85. The comparison reflects the expansion of the business since then, but the difference in periods makes the fiscal Q3 2026 results and fiscal 2026 guidance more relevant for assessing current operating performance.
The analyst consensus on TOL stock is “Buy,” with an average price target of $167.67, a high target of $195, and a low target of $122. The average target is near the 52-week range high of $168.36, but the lowest target is below the range low of $123.15, a divergence that reflects the balance between community growth and the strength of the luxury customer on one hand, and weak demand and elevated incentives on the other. The data does not include a usable price-to-earnings ratio, so the stock's valuation here is based on the target range and the 52-week range rather than an unavailable earnings multiple.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Toll Brothers delivered 2,662 homes and generated home sales revenue of $2.65 billion in fiscal Q3 2026. Net income was $280.1 million, and diluted earnings per share were $2.97. Adjusted gross margin reached 25.6%, exceeding the company's guidance by 35 basis points. Net contracts also increased 5% in units and 4% in value compared with fiscal Q3 2025.
Toll Brothers focuses on luxury housing, particularly the move-up luxury segment, which accounted for 61% of home sales revenue in fiscal Q3 2026. The company offers more than 45 design studios, and upgrades, structural options, and lot premiums averaged $207 thousand per home, or 24% of the average base price. Build-to-order construction enables a home to be sold at an early stage, with greater customization opportunities and typically lower incentives than a completed speculative home. The average price of a move-up luxury home was approximately $1.35 million, and this is the company's highest-margin segment.
The company expects to deliver between 3,450 and 3,550 homes in fiscal Q4 2026, at an average price ranging between $995 thousand and $1.005 million. For full fiscal 2026, it expects to deliver 10,500 to 10,600 homes and generate home sales revenue of approximately $10.5 billion. Toll Brothers maintained its adjusted gross margin guidance at 26.1% for the year and 26.0% for Q4. It also raised its share repurchase forecast to $700 million after completing $433 million through the end of Q3.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The number of communities from which Toll Brothers was selling reached approximately 471 by the end of fiscal Q3 2026, compared with 420 a year earlier. The company aims to end fiscal 2026 with between 480 and 490 communities, compared with 446 communities at the end of fiscal 2025. It owns or controls approximately 75,500 lots, 58% of them through options, and spent $452 million on land purchases during the quarter. Management believes the current portfolio supports community-count growth of 8% to 10% during fiscal 2027 and beyond.
The most important risk is continued housing market weakness under pressure from high mortgage rates and low consumer confidence; the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.77% on August 12, 2026. Incentives remain elevated at approximately 7.5%, while the average signed contract price declined to $1.003 million from $1.03 million in the comparable quarter. The move-up luxury segment represents 61% of revenue, making results sensitive to any downturn in this high-income category. Rising lumber costs and the accounting impact of the Buffington acquisition add further margin risks.
The analyst consensus on TOL is “Buy,” and the average price target is $167.67. The targets range between $122 and $195, revealing wide disagreement over the trajectory of the housing cycle and the company's profitability. The average is near the 52-week range high of $168.36, while the lowest target is below the range low of $123.15. The analyst view therefore combines recognition of the strength of community expansion and the balance sheet with caution about weak demand and elevated incentives.
