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Travel + Leisure Co.
TNL

TNL Travel + Leisure Co.

Travel + Leisure Co. · NYSE
Market Closed
66.74
▲ ⁦+2.11%⁩ (+1.38)
Market Cap$4.1B
Beta1.19
52w Low52w High
58.0781.00
Last Week
⁦+0.51%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.07%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+0.04%⁩
Last Year
⁦+6.80%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall76
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 76% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
80
18.2x17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
34
4.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
94
9.5%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
44
7.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
72
3.47%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
48
29.4%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
39
8▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$67
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$85
⁦+27%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$77–$87⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$1.79
⁦-97%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.7⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$1.79–$85⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$84.00
⁦+25.9%⁩
Current Price $66.74·Median $85.00
Low
$77.00
High
$87.00
Current price
$66.74
Average target
$84.00
Street summary

Travel + Leisure (TNL) Price Target Review

Bullish tilt

TNL stock saw a 4.3% decline in its average price target over the past 30 days, with the consensus falling from $87.25 to $83.5 as a new analyst joined the coverage. Despite this downward revision, all analyst estimates (ranging between $77 and $87) remain significantly higher than the current trading price of $68.76, indicating a conviction in a positive price gap.

As of 2026-08-31
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-3.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.08
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦13 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
92%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
15%
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
2
10
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.08
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-18
    Susquehanna
    Positive
  • = Reiterate2026-08-18
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-23
    Citigroup
    Market Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.23x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.45x
    3.79x30.29x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.85x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    10.8%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.5%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -37.0%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    92.9%
    12.0%66.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    9.5%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    7.90x
    0.65x5.48x
    High debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.5%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    62.6%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.24
    -2.656.14
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Travel + Leisure Co. operates in two main businesses: Vacation Ownership, and Travel and Membership. The primary revenue engine relies on selling vacation ownership interests, or VOI, to new and existing members, then generating recurring streams from management fees, financing, and upgrades; in fiscal Q2 2026, gross VOI sales reached $693 million, up 6%, and Vacation Ownership segment revenue rose 6% to $907 million, while segment EBITDA increased 13% to $247 million. The Travel and Membership segment, which includes exchange businesses and travel clubs, recorded revenue of $157 million, down 5%, and EBITDA of $49 million, down 11%.

In fiscal Q2 2026, EDGAR data showed revenue of $1.1 billion, gross profit of $1.0 billion, net income of $109 million, and earnings per share of $1.72. According to the adjusted metrics reported in the July 22, 2026 earnings call, revenue reached $1.06 billion, up 4%, EBITDA was approximately $269 million, up 8%, the EBITDA margin improved by 70 basis points, and adjusted earnings per share rose 14%. The segment mix confirms that Vacation Ownership is the dominant source of revenue and earnings, while Travel and Membership remained a drag on growth.

On a trailing twelve-month basis ending in fiscal 2026, the company recorded revenue of approximately $4.1 billion, gross profit of approximately $3.8 billion, net income of $238 million, and earnings per share of approximately $3.75. By comparison, fiscal 2025 revenue was approximately $4.0 billion, net income was $230 million, and earnings per share were $3.44. During the first half of fiscal 2026, revenue rose 4%, EBITDA increased 9%, and earnings per share increased 21%, while the company returned $253 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, reducing the number of common shares outstanding by 4%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance after underlying performance exceeded expectations and included the expected impact of the Yes& Vacations and Spinnaker Resorts transactions; it now expects gross VOI sales of between $2.6 billion and $2.675 billion, EBITDA of between $1.065 billion and $1.085 billion, and earnings per share growth of approximately 20%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The Yes& Vacations and Spinnaker Resorts transactions add 23 resorts and more than 100,000 owners, expanding the owner base by more than 10%, including six resorts in Hilton Head and seven in Maui. Management expects an additional EBITDA contribution of between $15 million and $20 million during fiscal 2026, followed by approximately $50 million on a first twelve-month basis after achieving the expected synergies.
  • The Vacation Ownership business continues to deliver operational growth; gross VOI sales in fiscal Q2 2026 rose 6% to $693 million, volume per guest increased 2% to $3,318, and tours rose 1%. The average booking window also reached 109 days and the average stay was four days, giving management clearer visibility into demand during the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • The multi-brand strategy is expanding with clear quantitative indicators: Margaritaville is on track to exceed $150 million in annual VOI sales, Accor Vacation Club sales are on track to nearly double during fiscal 2026, while Eddie Bauer Adventure Club sales are exceeding management's expectations. The company expects the new brands collectively to approach 10% of the VOI sales mix in fiscal 2026.
  • The digital transformation supports usage and booking within the company's network; the Club Wyndham platform, launched less than two years before the July 22, 2026 call, now accounts for more than 30% of total club bookings. The company also launched the Margaritaville app to facilitate search, planning, booking, and travel through digital channels.
  • Liquidity and share repurchases provide additional support for earnings per share; the company repurchased approximately $88 million of shares during fiscal Q2 2026, up 25%, with available liquidity exceeding $1.2 billion and leverage below 3.2 times. Management expects share repurchases to continue in fiscal 2026 at a level similar to fiscal 2025 despite funding the acquisitions.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The bullish case rests on the strength of the Vacation Ownership business, where segment revenue rose 6% and EBITDA increased 13% in fiscal Q2 2026, outpacing tour growth of 1% due to higher volume per guest and improved efficiency across the resort network.
    • +The Yes& Vacations and Spinnaker Resorts transactions expand the owner base by more than 100,000 owners and add 23 resorts, with approximately 80% of the new owners having fully paid off their ownership-interest loans. This base gives the company an opportunity to sell upgrades and the flexible points system, with an expected immediate earnings contribution and revenue opportunities extending over several years.
    • +The raised guidance demonstrates management's confidence in continued momentum; it expects EBITDA of between $1.065 billion and $1.085 billion in fiscal 2026, conversion of approximately half of EBITDA into free cash flow, and earnings per share growth of approximately 20%. This combines operational growth, the impact of acquisitions, and a lower number of shares outstanding through repurchases.
    • +Underlying credit quality remains stable according to company data; average FICO scores at loan origination exceeded 740, down payments improved compared with the prior year, and early delinquencies declined by approximately 80 basis points compared with fiscal Q1 2026. Management also reaffirmed that it expects the organic loan loss provision rate in fiscal 2026 to be lower than in fiscal 2025.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The decline in the Travel and Membership segment represents a separate operational risk; its revenue fell 5% to $157 million and EBITDA declined 11% to $49 million in fiscal Q2 2026, with management acknowledging that the exchange business remains the challenged part of the segment and that travel club transaction growth comes at lower margins.
    • −The acquired portfolios increase near-term credit risk; although the organic provision is expected to decline from fiscal 2025, the company expects the consolidated loan loss provision rate to reach approximately 21% in fiscal 2026 due to the higher provision associated with Yes& Vacations and Spinnaker Resorts sales. Improvement in these portfolios depends on successfully applying Travel + Leisure's collection and servicing capabilities to them.
    • −Tour growth slowed to 1% in fiscal Q2 2026, and owner tours were affected by resort and sales center closures under the network optimization initiative. Higher volume per guest has offset this weakness so far, but a decline in this metric could expose the impact of lower tour flow on VOI sales.
    • −The Yes& Vacations and Spinnaker Resorts transactions carry execution risks despite management describing them as low; the company allocated approximately $340 million to acquire two businesses expected to generate approximately $50 million in EBITDA after synergies and on a first twelve-month basis. Management also explained that converting owners to the points system and realizing revenue opportunities will take several years, while leverage rises by approximately 0.2 times and is expected to reach 3.2 times at the end of fiscal 2026.
    • −The target valuation limits the margin of safety based on the historical range; the average analyst target of $83.5 is only $2.5 above the top of the 52-week range of $81, despite targets ranging from $77 to $87. This makes achieving value above the annual peak dependent on delivering the raised guidance and successfully integrating the acquisitions.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $83.5, within a range of $77 to $87, and the consensus recommendation is "Buy." The average target is only $2.5 above the 52-week high of $81, while the highest target exceeds that peak by $6; therefore, the valuation reflects optimism that fiscal 2026 guidance will be achieved, but it remains clearly sensitive to any setback in the Travel and Membership segment or the integration of the acquisitions.

    BuyAnalyst target: $83.5(+25.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is the primary driver of Travel + Leisure Co.'s revenue and earnings?

    The Vacation Ownership segment is the company's primary driver through VOI sales and management, financing, and upgrade fees from owners. In fiscal Q2 2026, segment revenue reached $907 million, up 6%, and EBITDA was approximately $247 million, up 13%. Gross VOI sales reached $693 million, while volume per guest rose 2% to $3,318. By comparison, the Travel and Membership segment generated revenue of $157 million and EBITDA of $49 million.

    How do the Yes& Vacations and Spinnaker Resorts transactions affect TNL?

    The two transactions add 23 resorts and more than 100,000 owners, increasing the owner base by more than 10%. The assets include six resorts in Hilton Head and seven in Maui, two markets that management described as having strong demand and being difficult for new development. The company expects an additional EBITDA contribution of between $15 million and $20 million during fiscal 2026, and approximately $50 million on a first twelve-month basis after synergies. The investment is valued at approximately $340 million, declining to approximately $260 million after securitizing approximately $80 million of financing receivables, equivalent to approximately five times expected EBITDA.

    What is Travel + Leisure's guidance for fiscal 2026?

    The company expects gross VOI sales of between $2.6 billion and $2.675 billion in fiscal 2026. It also raised its EBITDA range to between $1.065 billion and $1.085 billion, including the contribution from the acquisitions. Management expects earnings per share growth of approximately 20% and conversion of approximately half of EBITDA into free cash flow. For fiscal Q3 2026, the company set a VOI sales range of between $700 million and $740 million and an EBITDA range of between $275 million and $285 million.

    Does TNL's loan portfolio show deterioration in credit quality?

    Management stated in the July 22, 2026 call that the average FICO score at loan origination remained above 740, with improved down payments compared with the prior year. After early delinquencies rose by approximately 20 basis points in fiscal Q1 2026, they improved by approximately 80 basis points in fiscal Q2 2026. The company expects the organic loan provision for fiscal 2026 to be lower than in fiscal 2025. However, adding the acquired portfolios raises the expected consolidated provision rate to approximately 21% during fiscal 2026.

    What role do the new brands and digital apps play in TNL's growth?

    Margaritaville is on track to exceed $150 million in annual VOI sales, while Accor Vacation Club sales are on track to nearly double in fiscal 2026. Management also said that Eddie Bauer Adventure Club sales are exceeding its expectations and that the new brands collectively could approach 10% of the VOI sales mix during fiscal 2026. The company opened a Sports Illustrated Resorts resort in Nashville during fiscal Q3 2026, with sales beginning at its new center. Digitally, Club Wyndham app bookings represent more than 30% of total club bookings, and the company also launched the Margaritaville app.

    What are the main risks to monitor for TNL stock?

    The clearest operational pressure comes from the Travel and Membership segment, whose revenue declined 5% and EBITDA declined 11% in fiscal Q2 2026. Tour growth also slowed to 1%, and continued VOI sales growth relied on higher volume per guest to offset the impact of some resort and sales center closures. The acquisitions add credit and execution risks, as the company expects a consolidated loan provision of approximately 21%, while converting more than 100,000 owners to the points system and realizing upgrade opportunities may take several years. This is compounded by insider net selling of $15.2 million during the three months through August 26, 2026, which should be treated as a weak signal because these sales may be prearranged.

  • −Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 26, 2026 recorded net selling of $15.2 million, with seven sales and no purchases. This remains a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the available information does not establish otherwise.