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Stocks
TriNet Group, Inc.
TNET

TNET TriNet Group, Inc.

TriNet Group, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
66.01
▼ ⁦-0.30%⁩ (-0.20)
Market Cap$3.0B
Beta0.93
52w Low52w High
33.6072.84
Last Week
⁦-4.91%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.99%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+44.51%⁩
Last Year
⁦-7.19%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall81
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 81% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
80
17.5x17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
19
-4.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
84
21.5%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
58
1.6x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
61
1.64%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
82
-1.7%▼2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
40
5▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$66
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$69
⁦+5%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$62–$140⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$81
⁦+23%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.5⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$69–$81⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$85.00
⁦+28.8%⁩
Current Price $66.01·Median $69.00
Low
$62.00
High
$140.00
Current price
$66.01
Average target
$85.00
Street summary

TriNet Group (TNET) Price Target Revision

Bullish tilt

TriNet stock saw a positive revision in its average price target over the last 30 days, with the consensus rising by 13.33% from $75 to $85, while the number of covering analysts remained constant. There is significant dispersion in analyst estimates, with targets ranging from a low of $62 to a high of $140, reflecting uncertainty regarding fair valuation despite the stock currently trading (70.11) above the median price of $69.

As of 2026-08-13
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+13.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
29%
Target dispersion
118%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
2
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.00 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-06-26
    TD Cowen
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-05-01
    TD Cowen
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-02-13
    Stifel Nicolaus
    —· $75.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.51x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.76x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.56x
    3.43x27.47x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.5%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -4.4%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    29.6%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    19.1%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    21.5%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.56x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.6%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    29.7%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.98
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

TriNet Group provides human resources services to small and medium-sized businesses through a professional employer organization model, including payroll, benefits, insurance, workforce management, and compliance. Its revenue comes from insurance services, professional services, and interest, with business volume linked to the number of worksite employees WSE covered by its services; in Q2 fiscal 2026, total WSE was approximately 300 thousand, including 274 thousand under the co-employment model. The company is also expanding its smaller ASO business, which achieved double-digit growth during the quarter, and is adding revenue from Cocoon following its acquisition to provide leave-of-absence management solutions.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $1.2 billion, down 5% year over year, while net income according to EDGAR data was approximately $53 million and diluted earnings per share were $1.15. Professional services revenue was $159 million, down 8%, and interest revenue was $12 million, down 33%, while insurance services revenue declined 4% and insurance costs fell 8%. This resulted in a four-point improvement in the insurance cost ratio to 86%, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $128 million at a 10.9% margin.

On a trailing twelve-month basis in fiscal 2026, the latest EDGAR data showed revenue of $4.9 billion, net income of $175 million, and earnings per share of approximately $3.80. In Q2 fiscal 2026, TriNet generated $88 million in operating cash flow and $67 million in free cash flow, up 18%, and returned $31 million to shareholders through the repurchase of approximately 500 thousand shares for $18 million and a cash dividend of $0.29 per share.

What's Driving the Stock

  • TriNet raised its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook following improved insurance results and expense control; the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin range is now 8.5% to 9%, the GAAP diluted earnings per share range is $2.85 to $3.35, and the adjusted earnings range is $4.50 to $5.10.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Customer retention improved in Q2 fiscal 2026, as overall attrition declined 36% year over year, attrition related to healthcare pricing fell 58%, and service-related attrition declined 47%. Management aims to sustainably raise the retention rate several points above its historical level of approximately 80%.
  • TriNet Assistant handled approximately 50% of customer-initiated chat sessions since its launch in spring 2026, reducing the volume of service cases handled by employees. The company also uses artificial intelligence in its customer health score, benefits package selection, and sales prospecting tools, with the aim of improving retention, service experience, and efficiency.
  • The broker channel represented 32% of new sales by the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, and requests for proposals through the channel jumped 54% year over year. At the same time, the number of sales consultants with more than four years of experience increased 7%, their productivity improved 13%, and they were, on average, five times more productive than first-year employees.
  • TriNet hired more than 100 new representatives through the ASCEND program, and the first cohort of slightly more than 20 representatives moved into production in Q3 fiscal 2026. Management expects to end fiscal 2026 with approximately 20% more sales consultants than at the end of fiscal 2025, with new cohorts graduating every quarter during fiscal 2027.
  • In July 2026, the company launched an enhanced health plan pricing engine and expanded its benefits plan library to cover a broader range of price points while using artificial intelligence to match customer needs with suitable packages. The Cocoon integration is also proceeding according to plan; the first cohort of customers has transitioned, and the second and third cohorts are expected to be completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Insurance economics improved clearly in Q2 fiscal 2026; insurance costs fell 8% compared with a 4% decline in insurance services revenue, and the insurance cost ratio improved four points to 86%. This, along with expense control, contributed to higher fiscal 2026 margin and earnings per share guidance.
    • +Retention and sales indicators provide a potential foundation for a return to growth; attrition declined 36%, broker requests for proposals grew 54%, and senior sales representative productivity improved 13%. If the increase in representative headcount and the ASCEND program translate these indicators into new sales, the decline in WSE could slow before stabilizing.
    • +Liquidity supports TriNet's ability to fund growth and return capital in parallel; free cash flow was $67 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 18%. The company returned $31 million to shareholders during the quarter while continuing to invest in distribution, benefits, and the service model.
    • +The TriNet Assistant initiatives, the health plan pricing engine, and the Cocoon integration demonstrate a practical path for using technology to improve service, pricing, and retention, rather than relying solely on cost reductions. TriNet Assistant's handling of approximately 50% of customer conversations provides the company with early operational evidence that these investments can scale.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The contraction of the WSE base continues to put direct pressure on revenue; total WSE was approximately 300 thousand in Q2 fiscal 2026, down 12% year over year, while co-employment WSE declined 11% to 274 thousand. As a result, total revenue fell 5% and professional services revenue declined 8%, and management did not specify a precise timeline for WSE to return to growth.
    • −Healthcare cost inflation remains a fundamental risk to margins, as trends remained in the high single digits during Q2 fiscal 2026. Management expects the insurance cost ratio to rise in the second half of fiscal 2026 compared with the first half due to increased utilization, the satisfaction of deductibles, and the resetting of pooling limits.
    • −Not all of the improvement in the insurance cost ratio in Q2 fiscal 2026 was recurring operational improvement; approximately two points of the year-over-year improvement came from favorable prior-year reserve development, and approximately two points came from a nonrecurring recovery of insurance administrative costs previously recognized as expenses. Therefore, the full four-point improvement may not recur in subsequent periods.
    • −The commercial recovery remains incomplete; sales ended Q2 fiscal 2026 without year-over-year growth, while management indicated that fiscal 2026 revenue is trending at or slightly below the midpoint of the $4.75 billion to $4.9 billion guidance range. Hiring within the customer base also remained without acceleration, despite not declining during the quarter.
    • −TriNet faces competition from other PEO service providers and multi-provider open-market solutions, particularly when customers leave because of healthcare pricing or service levels. Management also described the broker channel, which generated 32% of new sales in Q2 fiscal 2026, as more competitive than direct sales.
    • −Analyst consensus is neutral, while the wide target range of $62 to $140 reflects significant divergence in estimates of the recovery path, and no valid price-to-earnings multiple is available as an additional valuation anchor. The three insider sales during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 20, 2026, representing net sales of approximately $524.3 thousand, add only a weak trading signal because such sales may be prearranged.

    Valuation

    Analyst consensus on TNET stock is neutral, with an average target of $85 and a wide range of $62 to $140; the average is above the 52-week range high of $73.08, while the low is $33.61. The higher target suggests recovery potential if the WSE base stabilizes and sales investments translate into growth, but the wide target range and the absence of an available price-to-earnings multiple make the valuation sensitive to the sustainability of the insurance improvement and the company's ability to halt revenue contraction.

    HoldAnalyst target: $85(+28.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did TriNet's revenue decline in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Revenue declined 5% year over year to $1.2 billion because of lower WSE volumes, partially offset by pricing for insurance services and professional services. Total WSE was approximately 300 thousand, down 12%, and co-employment WSE declined 11% to 274 thousand. Professional services revenue also declined 8% to $159 million, and interest revenue fell 33% to $12 million. Management maintained the fiscal 2026 revenue range at $4.75 billion to $4.9 billion, with results trending at or slightly below the midpoint of the range.

    What improved TriNet's earnings in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Insurance costs declined 8% compared with a 4% decline in insurance services revenue, improving the insurance cost ratio by four points to 86%. Approximately two points of this improvement came from favorable prior-year reserve development, and approximately two points came from a nonrecurring recovery of insurance administrative costs. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $128 million at a 10.9% margin, while net income according to EDGAR was approximately $53 million. These results prompted the company to raise its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings margin range to 8.5%–9% and its adjusted earnings per share range to $4.50–$5.10.

    Have TriNet's customer and employee counts begun to recover?

    The WSE base had not returned to growth through Q2 fiscal 2026; total WSE of approximately 300 thousand was sequentially stable but 12% lower year over year. In contrast, customer attrition declined 36%, with healthcare pricing-related attrition down 58% and service-related attrition down 47%. Management expects retention to continue improving and new sales to increase in the second half of fiscal 2026, but it did not provide a precise timeline for WSE to return to growth. It views the nearer-term step as a return to revenue growth when the impact of pricing exceeds the slowing decline in WSE.

    How does TriNet use artificial intelligence in its business?

    TriNet Assistant handled approximately 50% of customer-initiated chat sessions since its launch in spring 2026, including questions about benefits, payroll, and workforce management. The company uses an artificial intelligence-powered customer health score to aggregate engagement signals and link them to customer satisfaction and retention. It has also introduced artificial intelligence into matching customers with health plan packages and the prospecting tools used by the sales team. In July 2026, it launched an enhanced health plan pricing engine aimed at improving the quality, speed, and consistency of proposals.

    How important are the broker channel and the ASCEND program to TNET's growth?

    The broker channel represented 32% of new sales by the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, and requests for proposals through the channel increased 54% year over year. The number of sales representatives with more than four years of experience increased 7%, their productivity rose 13%, and they were, on average, five times more productive than first-year representatives. TriNet hired more than 100 representatives through ASCEND, and the first cohort of slightly more than 20 representatives moved into production in Q3 fiscal 2026. The company expects to end fiscal 2026 with approximately 20% more sales consultants than at the end of fiscal 2025.

    What are the main insurance risks facing TriNet in fiscal 2026?

    Healthcare cost trends remained in the high single digits during Q2 fiscal 2026, despite being stable and slightly better than management's expectations. The company expects the insurance cost ratio to rise in the second half of fiscal 2026 because of utilization patterns, the satisfaction of deductibles, and the resetting of pooling limits. It also said that lower prescription drug cost inflation does not represent a confirmed change in trend because high-cost drugs may enter the market in the future. Therefore, TriNet continues to price toward the upper end of its long-term insurance cost ratio range of 86% to 90%.