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TransMedics Group, Inc.
TMDX

TMDX TransMedics Group, Inc.

TransMedics Group, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
82.18
▼ ⁦-3.36%⁩ (-2.86)
Market Cap$2.8B
Beta1.88
52w Low52w High
60.11156.00
Last Week
⁦-2.50%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.04%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+17.15%⁩
Last Year
⁦-28.52%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall31
Weak — below market medianFalling StarF 7/9Better than 31% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
27
21.2x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
93
25.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
80
14.4%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
47
3.6x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
9
0.00%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
12
-33.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
42
6▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$82
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$95
⁦+16%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$65–$122⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$21
⁦-74%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.8⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$21–$95⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$96.86
⁦+17.9%⁩
Current Price $82.18·Median $95.00
Low
$65.00
High
$122.00
Current price
$82.18
Average target
$96.86
Street summary

Target Stability Amid Divergent Outlook

The consensus price target has not changed over the last 30 days, remaining at 96.86 from five analysts, with the number of analysts also unchanged. The range is between 65 and 122, while the median is 95; this reflects a notable divergence in estimates compared with the current price of 82.18, with no new direction in the consensus itself.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.83
Buy
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
69%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
2
6
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.92 → 3.83
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Needham
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Needham
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    UBS
    HoldNeutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    21.24x
    3.94x44.30x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    28.58x
    4.64x37.16x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    33.86x
    3.77x30.13x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    2.8%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    25.8%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    99.5%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    58.7%
    12.8%90.7%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    14.4%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.63x
    0.60x5.10x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.0%
    0.0%3.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

TransMedics Group operates an integrated organ transplant platform that combines four interconnected assets: the Organ Care System, or OCS, technology for preserving organs through warm perfusion; the National OCS Program for providing organ procurement and surgical and clinical services; the TransMedics Transplant Logistics network for air and ground transportation; and the NOP Connect digital platform for managing the transplant journey. The company generates revenue from OCS products and the clinical and logistics services associated with liver, heart, and lung transplants, and on July 1, 2026, it began providing clinical screening coordination services for donors and recipients.

In fiscal 2026 Q2, the company reported record revenue of approximately $190 million, up 21% year over year and 9% sequentially. Product revenue was $111 million, compared with $79 million from services, representing 41% of the total; within U.S. transplant revenue of $184 million, liver contributed approximately $148 million, heart approximately $33 million, and lung approximately $2 million, while international revenue was approximately $5 million.

Gross margin in fiscal 2026 Q2 was approximately 59.6%, up 140 basis points sequentially and down 180 basis points year over year, with a 77% margin for products and 35% for services. The company reported adjusted operating income of $25.8 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 13.6%, adjusted net income of $16.2 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.44; meanwhile, EDGAR filings for fiscal 2026 Q1 showed revenue of $173.9 million, gross profit of $101.2 million, and net income of $7.3 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • TransMedics raised the lower end of its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $737 million to $757 million, representing growth of 22% to 25% compared with fiscal 2025, without assuming any revenue contribution from PAD Aviation or any material additional contribution from ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • TransMedics Logistics revenue grew 39% year over year and 30% sequentially in fiscal 2026 Q2 to approximately $41 million, and the network covered 86% of NOP missions requiring air transportation, compared with 82% in the previous quarter. Management attributed services growth to market share gains, the addition of new centers, and pricing adjustments to offset higher fuel costs.
  • Heart and lung represent a potential expansion opportunity through ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO; the two initiatives target between 2,000 and 5,000 additional cases annually in the United States, including approximately 2,200 heart transplants from donors after brain death that are not covered by the company’s current clinical indications.
  • The OCS Kidney project entered the development stage and pre-investigational device exemption discussions with the FDA, and the company is targeting its first clinical trial later in 2027. The system targets a U.S. market comprising more than 21,000 kidney transplants from deceased donors annually, in addition to approximately 9,200 kidneys that were recovered but not transplanted during 2024.
  • On July 1, 2026, the company closed its strategic investment in PAD Aviation to establish a European logistics transportation infrastructure, leveraging its location in Paderborn, more than 40 pilots, and an operational fleet. In Italy, TransMedics secured a national budget for machine perfusion and services and expected to complete the bureaucratic disbursement steps by the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027.
  • Over the long term, management targets supporting approximately 30,000 transplants by 2032 and generating annual revenue exceeding $2 billion, driven by the expansion of heart and lung, OCS Kidney, Europe, and the OCS Gen 3.0 platform. These are long-term management targets that require execution of the clinical programs, receipt of approvals, and increased international utilization.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +TransMedics’ core business demonstrated strong momentum in fiscal 2026 Q2, with record revenue of $190 million and year-over-year growth of 28% in liver, 6% in heart, and 29% in services, despite no material contribution from ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO.
    • +The combination of OCS, NOP, the transportation network, and the NOP Connect platform gives the company an integrated model that is difficult to replicate, as demonstrated by the growth in logistics services revenue to $41 million and the improvement in services margin from 27% in Q1 to 35% in fiscal 2026 Q2.
    • +Liquidity of $473 million at the end of fiscal 2026 Q2 provides the capacity to fund OCS Kidney, OCS Gen 3.0, European expansion, and manufacturing infrastructure, while continuing to generate adjusted operating income of $25.8 million during the quarter.
    • +Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $737 million to $757 million does not include PAD Aviation revenue or any material additional contribution from ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO, so these programs could represent future growth sources if they receive approvals and enrollment and utilization increase in line with management’s plans.

    ▼ Selling Case7 pts

    • −The organ mix is highly concentrated in liver; liver represented approximately $148 million of the $184 million in U.S. transplant revenue in fiscal 2026 Q2, and news published on August 6, 2026, indicated that it accounted for 78% of organ revenue. In contrast, lung revenue was only approximately $2 million and declined 42% year over year, increasing growth sensitivity to any slowdown in liver activity.
    • −Revenue growth has become more dependent on lower-margin services, as services revenue increased 29% to $79 million, compared with 16% product growth to $111 million in fiscal 2026 Q2. The higher weighting of services and product cost pressures caused gross margin to decline 180 basis points year over year to 59.6%, and management expects a margin of approximately 59% in the second half of fiscal 2026, excluding PAD Aviation.
    • −The company lowered its fiscal 2026 adjusted operating margin forecast from approximately 16% to a range of 12.5% to 14%, compared with a margin of 18.5% in fiscal 2025, due to accelerated spending on OCS Kidney and potential revenue variability. Adjusted operating expenses in Q2 increased 46% year over year to $87 million, while adjusted research and development expenses nearly doubled to $32 million.
    • −Enrollment in ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO was delayed by FDA-related regulatory constraints, and the company had completed only a limited number of cases in each program as of the August 4, 2026 call. Management emphasized that the FDA controls the timeline, and a portion of planned clinical spending shifted from 2026 to 2027, delaying potential revenue and extending the investment period.
    • −The integration of PAD Aviation will be dilutive to gross margin and operating margin beginning in fiscal 2026 Q3, and as of August 4, 2026, management had not provided a standalone estimate of its financial impact. The company also had not yet established an operating track record under its ownership and expected the transition from charter flights to transplant missions to take longer than its experience with Summit Aviation.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $96.86, within a wide range of $65 to $122, with the consensus rating classified as “Buy”; the average is approximately 38% below the 52-week range high of $156 and above its low of $60.105. No reported price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data despite earnings per share of $4.87 in fiscal 2025, so the valuation is closely tied to the company’s ability to achieve its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, contain the decline in operating margin, and manage delays in ENHANCE and DENOVO.

    BuyAnalyst target: $96.86(+17.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does TransMedics generate its revenue?

    TransMedics generates revenue from OCS products and the clinical, surgical, and logistics services associated with organ transplants. In fiscal 2026 Q2, product revenue was $111 million and services revenue was $79 million, with services accounting for 41% of total revenue. Within U.S. transplant revenue, liver contributed approximately $148 million, heart approximately $33 million, and lung approximately $2 million.

    What were TransMedics’ key results in fiscal 2026 Q2?

    Revenue was approximately $190 million, up 21% year over year and 9% sequentially, the highest quarterly level recorded by the company through June 30, 2026. Gross margin was 59.6%, while adjusted operating income was $25.8 million, with a margin of 13.6%. Adjusted net income was also $16.2 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.44.

    What is TransMedics’ guidance for fiscal 2026?

    The company expects revenue of $737 million to $757 million in fiscal 2026, representing growth of 22% to 25% compared with fiscal 2025. This guidance excludes the impact of PAD Aviation and assumes no material additional contribution from ENHANCE Part B or DENOVO. The company expects a gross margin of approximately 59% in the second half and an adjusted operating margin of 12.5% to 14% for fiscal 2026, both excluding PAD Aviation.

    How important are ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO to TMDX’s growth?

    ENHANCE Part B aims to expand heart utilization into a U.S. segment comprising approximately 2,200 annual transplants from donors after brain death, while introducing CHOPS as a lower-cost preservation option. DENOVO aims to revitalize the lung perfusion market and expand the use of OCS Lung, and the company estimates the combined opportunity for the two programs at between 2,000 and 5,000 additional heart and lung cases annually. As of the August 4, 2026 call, only a limited number of cases had been completed in the two programs, and the ENHANCE investigational device exemption amendment was under FDA review.

    What is the opportunity for OCS Kidney, and what is its timeline?

    OCS Kidney targets a U.S. market exceeding 21,000 kidney transplants from deceased donors annually, while approximately 9,200 additional kidneys were recovered in 2024 without being transplanted. Management states that delayed graft function affects between 26% and 50% of recipients, with an estimated additional cost of between $25 thousand and $45 thousand per case. The program began pre-investigational device exemption discussions with the FDA on August 4, 2026, and the company is targeting its first clinical trial later in 2027.

    Why is TransMedics’ profit margin under pressure?

    The share of lower-margin services increased, as services revenue grew 29% year over year compared with 16% for products in fiscal 2026 Q2. Despite the sequential improvement in services margin from 27% to 35%, gross margin declined 180 basis points year over year to 59.6% due to the services mix, inventory provisions, and trial-related solution costs. In addition, management expects the integration of PAD Aviation beginning in fiscal 2026 Q3 to reduce gross and operating margins.

    −
    Analyst targets range from $65 to $122, a wide spread that reflects material differences in estimates of potential returns and execution risks. The average target of $96.86 is also approximately 38% below the 52-week range high of $156, highlighting the potential magnitude of a revaluation if margin pressures persist or clinical programs are delayed.
  • −Insider activity recorded one sale and no purchases during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 15, 2026, for net sales of approximately $722 thousand. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence to the contrary.