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Stocks
Toyota Motor Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall38
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 6/9Better than 38% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
78
8.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
55
8.6%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
31
3.2%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
47
4.4x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
23
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
35
-4.8%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
74
33Top tier
TM

TM Toyota Motor Corporation

Toyota Motor Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
198.20
▲ ⁦+2.97%⁩ (+5.72)
Market Cap$234.7B
Beta0.34
52w Low52w High
166.10248.90
Last Week
⁦+0.08%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.99%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+12.75%⁩
Last Year
⁦-2.26%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$198
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$179
⁦-9%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$179–$179⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$179.41
⁦-9.5%⁩
Current Price $198.20·Median $179.41
Low
$179.41
High
$179.41
Street summary

Toyota Motor (TM) Stock Forecast Analysis

The data shows complete stability in the average price target at 179.41 dollars over the past 30 days, despite 3 new analysts recently entering the coverage range, reflecting a strong consensus (Zero Dispersion) among the 7 current analysts. However, the stock is currently trading at 189.08 dollars, which exceeds the price target by 5.4%, suggesting that the market has already priced in the positive expectations or that analysts have not updated their price targets to reflect recent price performance.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.50
Strong Buy
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
2
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.33 → 4.50
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2025-02-04
    Macquarie
    NeutralOutperform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2024-08-21
    Macquarie
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2024-06-14
    Erste Group
    BuyHold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.50x
    4.56x36.49x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.62x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -1.9%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.6%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    —
    —
  • Gross Margin
    16.8%
    12.0%66.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    3.2%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.35x
    0.65x5.48x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-08 data

Company Overview

Toyota Motor Corporation is a global automotive and mobility company that sells Toyota and Lexus vehicles across five brand themes led by Century, with a lineup spanning conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles HEV, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles PHEV, and battery electric vehicles BEV. Its core revenue strength comes from vehicle sales, while the company expands value-chain profits through financing and services linked to units in operation; management said value-chain revenue grew by about 150 billion yen annually during previous years.

In the fiscal 2026 Q4 briefing dated May 8, 2026, Toyota announced full-year fiscal 2026 results: sales revenue of 50.6849 trillion yen, operating income of 3.7662 trillion yen, income before taxes of 5.1529 trillion yen, and net income of 3.848 trillion yen. Consolidated vehicle sales totaled 9.595 million units, up 2.5%, while Toyota and Lexus sales reached 10.477 million units, up 2.0%.

Operating income equaled about 7.4% of fiscal 2026 revenue, while net income equaled about 7.6%. Electrified vehicle sales exceeded five million units for the first time, led by HEV, with PHEV and BEV also growing, and Japan and North America driving the increase in volumes; by contrast, operating income declined in Japan and North America, while it improved in other regions due to pricing adjustments, and the China business benefited from marketing, cost reductions, and financing.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Strong demand for HEV remains the clearest operating driver; total electrified vehicles exceeded five million units in fiscal 2026, and Toyota is targeting more than five million hybrid vehicles and about six million electrified vehicles overall in fiscal 2027.
  • The company expects fiscal 2027 revenue of 51 trillion yen and consolidated sales of 9.6 million vehicles, with Toyota and Lexus sales reaching 10.5 million units. This is supported by refreshed models, including RAV4, entering full-scale production, but expected volume growth is limited to 0.1% for consolidated sales and 0.2% for Toyota and Lexus.
  • Toyota is targeting an increase in BEV sales to about 600 thousand units, equivalent to 246% of the previous level, with growth concentrated in China, Europe, and North America. Drivers include products developed for the Chinese market, vehicles produced in collaboration with Suzuki in Europe, and the addition of electric models under the full-lineup approach in North America.
  • The AREA35 initiative, the reorganization of production models, the localization of procurement, and increased capacity for HEV batteries and units are improving the contribution from each vehicle and lowering the break-even point. At the same time, management aims to maintain value-chain revenue growth of about 150 billion yen annually and develop mobility, robotics, connected technologies, and SDV fields.
  • Toyota raised its fiscal 2026 dividend to 95 yen per share, an increase of five yen, and expects 100 yen per share in fiscal 2027. This supports shareholder returns despite the expected decline in earnings, while no year-end repurchase limit was specified and execution flexibility was retained.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Toyota has strong demand for hybrid vehicles, as electrified vehicle sales exceeded five million units for the first time in fiscal 2026, and some customers in Japan are still awaiting delivery. The availability of hybrid systems in most models gives it a practical basis for increasing production rather than relying on BEV alone.
  • +The company achieved operating income of 3.7662 trillion yen in fiscal 2026 despite the 1.38 trillion yen impact of U.S. tariffs, benefiting from higher volumes, pricing adjustments, value-chain profits, and continuous improvement.
  • +The value chain provides a more stable source of expansion, after its revenue grew by about 150 billion yen annually during previous years. Toyota seeks to replicate successful initiatives in additional regions and increase units in operation, alongside a long-term target of 20% return on equity with no announced deadline for achieving it.
  • +Toyota continues to fund future growth despite pressure on earnings; research and development spending reached a record level, with investments in BEV, hydrogen, Woven City, autonomous driving, software, and robotics. Management confirmed that it did not have to halt growth investments during fiscal 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

Analyst consensus on TM is neutral, with an average target of $179.41 and identical high and low targets at the same level, compared with a 52-week range of $166.1 to $248.9. The target is within the range and about 28% below its high, consistent with a reassessment that accounts for the expected third consecutive year of declining operating income, U.S. tariffs, and weakness in China; the data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio that can be used as an additional anchor.

HoldAnalyst target: $179.41(-9.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were the key TM results in fiscal 2026 Q4?

In the May 8, 2026 briefing, Toyota presented full-year fiscal 2026 results, recording sales revenue of 50.6849 trillion yen. Operating income was 3.7662 trillion yen and net income was 3.848 trillion yen, equivalent to approximate margins of 7.4% and 7.6%, respectively. Consolidated sales reached 9.595 million vehicles, while Toyota and Lexus sales totaled about 10.477 million units.

What is Toyota's outlook for fiscal 2027?

Toyota expects revenue of 51 trillion yen, operating income of 3 trillion yen, and net income of 3 trillion yen in fiscal 2027. It is targeting 9.6 million consolidated vehicles and 10.5 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles, representing limited growth of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The outlook includes a negative impact of 670 billion yen from the Middle East, in addition to the 1.38 trillion yen impact of U.S. tariffs.

Are hybrid vehicles still a growth driver for Toyota?

Yes, electrified vehicle sales exceeded five million units for the first time in fiscal 2026, led by HEV in North America and China. Toyota expects HEV sales alone to exceed five million units in fiscal 2027, with total electrified vehicles approaching six million. The company is supporting this by expanding capacity for HEV batteries and units and improving production and delivery for waiting customers.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Profitability faces a clear downward trajectory, as Toyota expects operating income of 3 trillion yen in fiscal 2027, down 766.2 billion yen, making it the third consecutive year of declining operating income. Management acknowledged that the medium- and long-term structural transformation is incomplete and that the break-even point is trending upward.
  • −U.S. tariffs are placing significant pressure on the North American business; their impact totaled 1.38 trillion yen in fiscal 2026, and higher volumes, prices, and value-chain profits could not fully offset it. Management also described the profitability structure in North America as extremely difficult after years of investment in platforms, trucks, and electrification.
  • −The fiscal 2027 outlook includes a negative impact of 670 billion yen from conditions in the Middle East, divided between about 270 billion yen from lower volumes and 400 billion yen from inflation in materials, transportation, fuel, and paint costs. The company assumes these conditions will persist for a full year, with a reduction of nearly half of its annual exports to the Middle East, which total 500 thousand to 600 thousand vehicles.
  • −Toyota announced on July 30, 2026, that global production and sales declined during the first half for the first time in two years, driven by weak demand in China and the RAV4 model changeover. This increases the sensitivity of the fiscal 2027 plan, which assumes very limited growth of 0.1% in consolidated sales.
  • −The company faces rising competition from emerging automakers, particularly in China, which management described as a key BEV market. Its response depends on developing vehicles specifically for China and increasing BEV sales to about 600 thousand units, but management has not yet identified definitive technology pillars for turning robotics and physical AI into tangible profits.
  • −Analyst consensus is neutral, and the sole target of $179.41 is about 28% below the 52-week range high of $248.9, reflecting caution regarding the sustainability of profitability. The identical high and low targets of $179.41 also indicate the absence of a diverse estimate range that could test this valuation.
How does Toyota plan to grow its BEV business?

Toyota is targeting sales of about 600 thousand BEV vehicles in fiscal 2027, equivalent to 246% of the previous level. Planned growth is concentrated in China, Europe, and North America, with products tailored to China and vehicles produced in collaboration with Suzuki in Europe. In North America, the company intends to increase its BEV presence under a multi-pathway full-lineup approach rather than abandoning HEV or PHEV.

Why does Toyota expect earnings to decline despite higher revenue?

The company expects operating income to decline from 3.7662 trillion yen in fiscal 2026 to 3 trillion yen in fiscal 2027 despite revenue rising to 51 trillion yen. The pressure stems from U.S. tariffs, labor and materials cost inflation, and the Middle East impact, which Toyota estimates at about 670 billion yen. Management also said its short-term measures preceded the slower structural transformations, so the expected decline would be the third consecutive decrease in operating income.

What do weakness in China and the RAV4 changeover mean for TM stock?

Toyota announced on July 30, 2026, that global production and sales declined during the first half for the first time in two years. It attributed this primarily to weak consumer demand in China and the impact of the RAV4 model changeover. Full-scale production of the fully refreshed RAV4 could support fiscal 2027 volumes, but the forecast of only 0.1% growth in consolidated sales leaves limited room for any additional weakness in China.