| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 39 | — | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 73 | 100.1% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 37 | 0.4% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 26 | 21.9x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 28 | 0.00% | 0.06% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 47 | -21.5% | -1.6% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 75 | 6 | 3 | Top tier |
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Talen Energy Corporation generates electricity and sells energy and capacity in the PJM market, with assets in the PPL and AEP Ohio regions. Its strategy centers on operating existing low-cost plants and linking their output to long-term contracts, including the AWS contract associated with the Susquehanna plant, with capacity of approximately 2 gigawatts. The company is developing grid-connected sites and additional capacity through batteries, peaking plants, and plant upgrades to support these contracts, while its core business remains electricity generation after selling the data center campus to AWS.
Revenue reached 3.4 billion dollars over the last 12 months through 2026-06-30, against a net loss of 185.0 million dollars, operating cash flow of 796.0 million dollars, and free cash flow of 568.0 million dollars. In fiscal year 2025, revenue was 2.6 billion dollars, gross margin was 38.8%, and the net loss was 219.0 million dollars, compared with revenue of 2.1 billion dollars, a gross margin of 31.4%, and net income of 998.0 million dollars in fiscal year 2024. This trajectory combines expansion in revenue and gross margin with weak net profitability, so strong cash flows alone are insufficient to assess earnings quality.
In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, whose results were discussed on the 2026-08-05 call, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached 374 million dollars, and adjusted free cash flow reached 212 million dollars. Performance reflected contributions from Freedom and Guernsey, higher PJM capacity revenue, increased generation from Susquehanna and the conventional fleet, and the ramp-up of the AWS contract; the acquisition of the Waterford, Darby, and Lawrenceburg plants also closed in June 2026, adding more than 2.5 gigawatts of gas-fired generation. In the expected margin mix, the AWS contract ramp-up is intended to raise the share from long-term contracts from 10% to 35% upon completion of the campus between 2028 and 2030, while the fiscal year 2028 outlook relies primarily on PJM energy and capacity revenue.
Last 12 months to 2026-06-30
When: 2026-11-04
Quarterly adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at the 374 million dollar threshold
Quarterly adjusted free cash flow at the 212 million dollar threshold
The median analyst target is 464 dollars, within a range of 405 dollars to 560 dollars. This is a low-confidence indicative estimate based on 3 analysts that reflects growth expectations, with this method tending toward optimism. The industry-multiple valuation is 195 dollars, within a range of 102 dollars to 237 dollars, and values the company on a sales basis using a median multiple of 2.7 among 9 comparable companies. The methods clearly differ in valuation levels because analyst targets give weight to expected growth, while the industry multiple prices sales according to peer company valuations, although each range reflects variation within its own method. The average consensus target is 467.9 dollars with a consensus buy recommendation, while Morgan Stanley raised its target on 2026-09-18 to 514 dollars from 503 dollars, and BNP Paribas lowered its target on 2026-08-19 to 560 dollars from 595 dollars, reflecting differences in analysts' assessments of the company's trajectory.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-09; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
The AWS contract links Talen's output to long-term demand with capacity of approximately 2 gigawatts, according to the 2026-08-05 call. The company expects completion of the campus between 2028 and 2030 to raise the contracted share of margin from 10% to 35%, with an AA-rated counterparty. It is also working on data center sites with capacity of approximately 4 gigawatts and new capacity projects exceeding 2 gigawatts, but it needs to convert these opportunities into contracts before counting them as guaranteed income. Reaching a contracted share of 60% after 2030 is a scenario contingent on adding approximately 2 gigawatts of long-term contracts.
Talen recorded a net loss of 185.0 million dollars, against operating cash flow of 796.0 million dollars and free cash flow of 568.0 million dollars, over the last 12 months through 2026-06-30. Stock-based compensation reached 568.0 million dollars, equivalent to 16.5% of revenue during the same period, but this alone is insufficient to explain the entire difference between earnings and cash generation. In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, discussed on 2026-08-05, the company reported adjusted free cash flow of 212 million dollars, an adjusted measure that differs from net income. Assessing performance therefore requires monitoring accounting profitability alongside cash generated, rather than treating either as a substitute for the other.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Fiscal year 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance within a range of 1.2 billion dollars to 1.35 billion dollars
On 2026-09-29, the company announced an increase in its total share repurchase authorization to 3 billion dollars through 2028, and the 2026-10-02 news covered the launch of an accelerated program worth 1.5 billion dollars. Management targets returning at least 70% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders through repurchases, according to the 2026-08-05 call. Executed repurchases reached 298.0 million dollars over the last 12 months through 2026-06-30, against stock-based compensation of 568.0 million dollars during the same period. The net effect on the share count depends on actual execution and the corresponding share issuance, rather than the size of the authorization alone.
The 2026-08-05 call explained that the PPL price discount to PJM West Hub widened from approximately 9 dollars to approximately 20 dollars per megawatt-hour, with surplus local generation and work on the transmission grid restricting southward electricity flows. This discount reduces the value of output from Talen assets in the region, and hedging it is difficult because of limited liquidity at local delivery points. Management expects the completion of transmission improvements and load growth within PPL to help narrow the differential, but it did not identify a single event that would resolve the problem. The fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028 outlooks presented on the call did not assume a narrowing of the differential, with sensitivity of approximately 1 dollar in adjusted free cash flow per share for each 1-dollar improvement in it.