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Home
Stocks
The Timken Company
TKR

TKR The Timken Company

The Timken Company · NYSE
Market Closed
119.40
▲ ⁦+1.05%⁩ (+1.24)
Market Cap$8.3B
Beta1.23
52w Low52w High
70.57146.37
Last Week
⁦-0.69%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.39%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.70%⁩
Last Year
⁦+51.12%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall65
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 5/9SafeBetter than 65% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
49
32.4x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
39
5.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
59
7.4%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
66
2.2x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
40
1.18%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
74
62.9%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
62
9▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$119
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$140
⁦+17%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$130–$160⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$49
⁦-59%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.8⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$49–$140⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$142.86
⁦+19.6%⁩
Current Price $119.40·Median $140.00
Low
$130.00
High
$160.00
Current price
$119.40
Average target
$142.86
Street summary

Stable Targets Amid a Slight Decline in Consensus

The consensus price target remained stable at 142.86 with six analysts, unchanged over one or seven days. Over 30 days, the consensus declined from 144 to 142.86, a decrease of 1.14 or 0.79%, with no change in the number of analysts. The current range is between 130 and 160, reflecting notable variation in estimates compared with the current price of 123.86.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
25%
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
2
4
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.43 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-01
    Bank of America Securities
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-14
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-13
    KeyBanc
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    32.36x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    18.02x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.89x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.7%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.5%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -16.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    30.8%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    7.4%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.15x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.2%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    38.3%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.28
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

The Timken Company is an advanced motion technology company that generates revenue through two main segments: Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. The two segments serve applications including aerospace and defense, infrastructure, automation and industrial solutions, industrial distribution and off-highway, and energy and power; the Industrial Motion portfolio also includes linear motion systems, lubrication systems, and precision drives used in automation and robotics. The Elevate to Outperform strategy focuses on optimizing the portfolio, increasing investment in strategic sectors, and expanding products regionally under the One Timken model.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $1.26 billion, up 7.5% year over year, and grew organically by 4.4%, supported by higher volumes and pricing in both segments; the Bijur Delimon acquisition added approximately 1.8% to growth, while currency translation added 1.3%. According to rounded EDGAR data, gross profit was $399.3 million, net income was $28.9 million, and earnings per share were $0.41, while adjusted earnings per share were $1.83, up approximately 30% year over year, including a benefit of $0.08 per share from an IEEPA tariff refund.

Engineered Bearings represented approximately $807 million, or about 64% of Q2 FY2026 revenue, and grew approximately 4% with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%. Industrial Motion achieved record quarterly revenue of $454 million, or about 36% of revenue, growing 14.6% with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.3%, up 500 basis points year over year. At the company level, adjusted EBITDA reached $247 million with a margin of 19.6% versus 17.7% a year earlier, while free cash flow exceeded $80 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Timken raised its FY2026 outlook to total revenue growth between 5% and 6%, with expected organic growth of 3.5% at the midpoint, and also raised its adjusted earnings per share range to $6.05–$6.35; the midpoint implies growth of approximately 16% compared with previous guidance of 13%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Industrial Motion was the leading growth driver in Q2 FY2026, as its revenue increased 14.6% to $454 million, grew organically by 8%, and its adjusted EBITDA margin rose 500 basis points to 23.3%. Linear motion systems and lubrication systems recorded double-digit growth, while automation and robotics achieved mid-teens growth.
  • The Bijur Delimon acquisition expanded the lubrication systems platform to approximately $400 million in revenue and added 1.8% to Q2 FY2026 sales and $4 million to adjusted EBITDA at a high-teens margin. The U.S. expansion of the Rollon platform also contributed to a second consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth for the linear motion platform.
  • The company expects to complete the sale of the belts business in Q3 FY2026, an action expected to improve the Industrial Motion segment's EBITDA margin by more than 200 basis points on a pro forma basis. The 80/20 initiatives also covered the equivalent of 60% of company revenue in Q2 FY2026, with a target of reaching 75% in Q3 FY2026 and beginning to positively affect earnings in 2027.
  • Aerospace and defense sales increased by a high-single-digit percentage in Q2 FY2026, and the aerospace book-to-bill ratio remained well above 1 as the backlog continued to grow. Timken is increasing capacity and specialized labor to serve this demand, but training new employees typically takes between six and nine months.
  • Timken expects free cash flow between $375 million and $400 million in FY2026, up $25 million from the previous forecast. In Q2 FY2026, it returned $45 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and raised the quarterly dividend by 3%, while ending the quarter with net debt equal to twice adjusted EBITDA.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Q2 FY2026 growth was based on broad operational improvement; volumes and pricing increased in both segments, organic growth reached 4.4%, and organic incremental margin exceeded 40% even after excluding the tariff refund benefit.
    • +Industrial Motion provides a faster-growing, higher-margin mix, as it grew organically by 8% and achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.3% in Q2 FY2026, with double-digit growth in linear motion and lubrication and mid-teens growth in automation and robotics.
    • +The margin improvement plan includes specific actions, including the sale of the belts business, which is expected to add more than 200 basis points to the Industrial Motion margin on a pro forma basis, and the company's exit from the Automotive OE business, which is expected to begin supporting the Engineered Bearings margin in 2027, alongside the implementation of 80/20.
    • +The aerospace and defense backlog supports the growth outlook; the sector grew by a high-single-digit percentage, and the aerospace book-to-bill ratio remained well above 1. Management also raised its FY2026 adjusted earnings per share outlook to $6.05–$6.35 and its free cash flow outlook to $375–$400 million.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The acceleration in aerospace and defense creates short-term pressure before returns emerge; expanding capacity and training specialized labor typically take between six and nine months, and most of the $0.10 per-share headwind in the guidance bridge relates to these investments, along with higher logistics costs.
    • −Implied organic growth in the second half of FY2026 slows to approximately 2.5% versus stronger performance in the first half, despite management seeing no slowdown in the order book. The company attributes this to seasonality, tougher pricing comparisons, declining sales in the belts business ahead of the divestiture, and geopolitical uncertainty.
    • −There are pockets of weakness within end markets; energy and power sales in Industrial Motion declined during Q2 FY2026 due to a significant drop in solar, while Automotive OE was negative and industrial distribution and off-highway was approximately flat in Engineered Bearings.
    • −Q2 FY2026 included a net benefit of $8 million, or $0.08 per share, from an IEEPA tariff refund, and the second-half outlook assumes no additional refunds because their timing and value are difficult to predict. At the same time, material, logistics, and labor costs increased, making continued margin expansion dependent on pricing, mix, and operational execution.
    • −Aerospace supply chains remain highly specialized and regulated, and Timken's ability to convert backlog into revenue depends on increasing its own production and that of its suppliers, as well as customers' ability to absorb output. Management also maintained a degree of caution in its FY2026 guidance due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tariff-related uncertainty.
    • −The average analyst target of $146.17 is very close to the top of the 52-week range of $146.37, while the target range extends from $130 to $160; therefore, the positive valuation case assumes the stock approaches its annual highs while executing margin improvements and divestitures. Insiders also recorded net sales of $2.8 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 10, 2026, through two sales and no purchases, although this is a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged and the context did not indicate otherwise.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $146.17 and a range between $130 and $160. The average is only $0.20 below the top of the 52-week range of $146.37, reflecting strong expectations but tying the valuation to execution of the raised FY2026 guidance and margin improvement; the $30 difference between the highest and lowest targets also reveals meaningful variation in assessments of that execution.

    BuyAnalyst target: $146.17(+22.4%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove TKR's growth in Q2 FY2026?

    Timken's revenue increased to $1.26 billion, up 7.5% year over year, and grew organically by 4.4% due to higher volumes and pricing in both segments. Bijur Delimon added approximately 1.8% to sales, while currency translation contributed 1.3%. The adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 19.6% from 17.7%, and adjusted earnings per share reached $1.83, including $0.08 from an IEEPA tariff refund.

    Why is Industrial Motion important to the TKR investment thesis?

    Industrial Motion achieved record quarterly revenue of $454 million in Q2 FY2026, up 14.6% with organic growth of 8%. Its adjusted EBITDA margin reached 23.3%, up 500 basis points year over year, with double-digit growth in linear motion systems and lubrication. The company expects the sale of the belts business in Q3 FY2026 to improve the segment's pro forma margin by more than 200 basis points.

    How does Timken benefit from automation and robotics?

    Automation and robotics grew at a mid-teens rate during Q2 FY2026, while the strategic sectors collectively achieved high-single-digit organic growth. Transferring Rollon's European strength to the United States contributed to a second consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth for the linear motion platform. Timken is also expanding Spinea solutions in the United States and Cone solutions in Europe, while precision drives and linear motion serve robotics, factory automation, and warehouse automation applications.

    What is Timken's outlook for FY2026?

    The company expects total revenue growth between 5% and 6% in FY2026, with organic growth of 3.5% at the midpoint. It raised its adjusted earnings per share range to $6.05–$6.35, implying growth of approximately 16% at the midpoint, and expects a consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin in the low-18% range. It also raised its free cash flow outlook to $375–$400 million, up $25 million from previous guidance.

    What is Timken's aerospace and defense opportunity, and what does it cost?

    Aerospace and defense sales increased by a high-single-digit percentage in Q2 FY2026, and the aerospace book-to-bill ratio remained well above 1 as the backlog grew. Timken is investing in production capacity and adding specialized labor, and training this workforce typically takes between six and nine months. Most of the $0.10 per-share headwind in the guidance bridge relates to these investments, but they are intended to convert existing backlog into additional production and revenue.

    What are the main risks to monitor for TKR stock?

    FY2026 guidance assumes second-half organic growth of approximately 2.5%, slower than the first half due to seasonality, pricing comparisons, declining belts sales, and geopolitical uncertainty. Q2 FY2026 also saw a significant decline in solar sales, while logistics, labor, and strategic investment costs increased. The second-half outlook does not include any additional IEEPA tariff refunds after the second quarter's $8 million benefit, while aerospace expansion requires successful coordination with a specialized and regulated supply chain.