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Stocks
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall63
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 6/8DistressBetter than 63% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
37
66.2x▼17.6xBottom tier
▸
Growth
74
-22.5%▼7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
82
11.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
62
2.7x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
43
0.64%▼2.15%Around median
▸
Momentum
47
0.6%▼2.3%Around median
▸
Sentiment
58
9▲3Around median
TKO

TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
189.26
▼ ⁦-0.02%⁩ (-0.04)
Market Cap$14.2B
Beta0.65
52w Low52w High
176.00226.94
Last Week
⁦-0.55%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.16%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-7.43%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.59%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$189
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$230
⁦+22%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$210–$235⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$464
⁦+145%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$230–$464⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$227.00
⁦+19.9%⁩
Current Price $189.26·Median $230.00
Low
$210.00
High
$235.00
Current price
$189.26
Average target
$227.00
Street summary

Stable Targets Amid a Slight Decline in Coverage

The average price target remained unchanged at 227 over one day, 7 days, and 30 days, while the number of analysts also stayed at 5 compared with the one-day and 30-day snapshots. The target range is between 210 and 235, with a median of 230, indicating limited variation in estimates without a recent shift in the overall direction; the consensus average is approximately 20% above the current price of 189.26, based solely on the data provided.

As of 2026-09-18
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.95
Buy
Analyst coverage
22
Buy conviction
82%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
13%
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
3
15
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.91 → 3.95
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-16
    Bernstein
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Benchmark
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    66.17x
    4.15x33.22x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    36.32x
    3.10x24.76x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.37x
    2.54x20.34x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    11.6%
    -36.1%21.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -22.5%
    -16.2%46.8%
    Weak
  • EPS Growth YoY
    13.5%
    -479.5%138.2%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    54.1%
    11.3%77.9%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    11.9%
    -33.6%17.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.72x
    0.59x5.65x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.6%
    0.0%9.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    104.7%
    5.9%105.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.55
    -8.264.52
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

TKO Group Holdings owns a portfolio of live sports and entertainment assets that includes UFC, WWE, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, alongside IMG and On Location. The group generates revenue from media rights and content production, partnerships and marketing, event ticketing and hospitality, product licensing, as well as boxing-related service fees; more than 70% of UFC and WWE's long-term revenue is contracted, and the total value of media agreements is approximately $15 billion over five to seven years.

In Q2 FY2026, consolidated revenue reached $1.547 billion, up 18% year over year, while net income according to EDGAR data was approximately $101.6 million and earnings per share were $1.34. Adjusted EBITDA rose 23% to $650 million, while its margin expanded by approximately 180 basis points to 42%, despite a loss of approximately $30 million related to UFC Freedom 250.

WWE led the segment mix with revenue of $621 million and adjusted earnings of $368 million, followed by UFC with revenue of $536 million and adjusted earnings of $280 million, then IMG with revenue of $355 million and adjusted earnings of $79 million. UFC grew 29%, WWE 12%, and IMG 16%, while IMG's margin jumped from 9% to 22% due to On Location's World Cup hospitality program; conversely, UFC's margin declined from 59% to 52% because of the cost of UFC Freedom 250 and the event mix.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 3, 2026, management raised its FY2026 outlook to revenue of between $5.775 billion and $5.825 billion and adjusted EBITDA of between $2.275 billion and $2.305 billion, increases of $75 million and $25 million, respectively, at the midpoints of the ranges compared with the February 2026 outlook.
  • The Paramount agreement supports UFC's economics; 20 million subscribing households watched more than 200 million hours of UFC content during the first six months of 2026, more than 23 times the average viewership of pay-per-view events during the previous two years. In Q2 FY2026, UFC's media rights, production, and content revenue rose 25% to $325 million.
  • UFC expanded its partnership base through UFC Freedom 250, adding 25 new marketing partners and increasing partnership and marketing revenue 69% to $145 million. New relationships included Exodus, Anduril, Supersure, and Starlink, while some multi-year agreements extended into 2027, 2028, and beyond.
  • On Location's World Cup hospitality sales surpassed $2 billion from more than 568 thousand packages through the end of Q2 FY2026, and management expects the program's contribution to exceed its previous estimate of approximately $75 million in adjusted earnings for the year. LA28 hospitality orders also surpassed $280 million across more than 20 thousand bookings, providing a follow-on business pipeline after the World Cup program.
  • WWE's revenue grew 12% in Q2 FY2026 to $621 million, driven by a 29% increase in media rights, production, and content revenue to $360 million following the launch of the ESPN agreement in September 2025. WrestleMania 42 recorded a record 32 partners, while the segment's adjusted earnings margin remained at 59%.
  • Zuffa Boxing represents a growth option with low financing risk under the joint venture structure; the company has no funding obligations and does not consolidate its results, but it can earn an ownership stake and participate in future value creation. The brand expanded its operations into the United Kingdom and New York, activated a Sky Sports partnership, and signed Shakur Stevenson, while TKO separately receives fees for major-event services.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +TKO's model combines revenue growth with contractual visibility; Q2 FY2026 revenue rose 18%, while approximately $15 billion in media contracts and more than 70% of contracted long-term revenue at UFC and WWE provide meaningful cash-flow predictability.
  • +The improvement in consolidated profitability demonstrates operating leverage, as adjusted earnings increased 23% and the margin expanded to 42% despite the period absorbing a loss of approximately $30 million from UFC Freedom 250. IMG also achieved a sharp margin improvement from 9% to 22% as World Cup hospitality revenue recognition began.
  • +Growth sources are diversified across Paramount and ESPN rights, global partnerships, financial incentive packages, On Location hospitality, product licensing, and Zuffa Boxing. Quantitative examples include a 61% increase in UFC product licensing revenue to $18 million and a 38% increase in the corresponding WWE category to $46 million, in addition to targeting financial incentive packages of between $380 million and $420 million by 2030.
  • +Cash generation supports the capital return policy; the company generated free cash flow of $350 million in Q2 FY2026 and returned more than $1.3 billion to shareholders year to date through dividends and share repurchases. At the end of the period, slightly more than $1 billion remained available under the existing share repurchase authorization.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $227 and a target range of between $210 and $235. The average target is approximately at the 52-week range high of $226.94, while the highest target exceeds that high and the lowest target falls below it, reflecting meaningful disagreement over how much growth can be justified by media contracts and live events. A P/E ratio is unavailable in the data, so the raised FY2026 outlook and adjusted earnings growth should be weighed against net debt of $4.067 billion and volatility in event margins.

BuyAnalyst target: $227(+19.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove TKO's growth in Q2 FY2026?

Consolidated revenue rose 18% to $1.547 billion, and adjusted EBITDA increased 23% to $650 million. The Paramount agreement helped increase UFC rights revenue, while the ESPN agreement supported growth in WWE rights, and the World Cup hospitality program added strong momentum to IMG and On Location. Segment revenue increased 29% at UFC, 12% at WWE, and 16% at IMG.

Why did UFC's margin decline despite revenue growth?

UFC's adjusted earnings margin was approximately 52% in Q2 FY2026 compared with 59% a year earlier. The segment absorbed a loss of approximately $30 million from UFC Freedom 250, where no tickets were sold and no live-event revenue was recorded, and the period hosted one fewer numbered event than the comparative period. At the same time, athlete, production, and event costs increased, despite segment revenue growing 29% to $536 million.

How important is the Paramount agreement to UFC's business?

Since the beginning of FY2026, 20 million subscribing households have watched more than 200 million hours of UFC programming on Paramount+. Viewership was more than 23 times the average UFC pay-per-view event during the previous two years after the dual paywall was removed. In Q2 FY2026, UFC's media, production, and content revenue rose 25% to $325 million.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −TKO faces direct competition in combat sports following PFL's meeting with MVP and Jake Paul and their association with Netflix; management acknowledged the competition, although it believes the two entities have not demonstrated their standalone sustainability. If this alliance succeeds in attracting fighters, audiences, or media rights, it could pressure UFC and Zuffa Boxing's contracting and pricing power.
  • −Quarterly earnings remain sensitive to the mix, locations, and timing of events; UFC Freedom 250 reduced UFC's margin from 59% to 52% and caused a loss of approximately $30 million, while event and hospitality revenue declined 18% at both UFC and WWE. Management also explained that increasing WWE's international events from two events to 22 events raised talent, production, and travel costs, and that having only one premium event in Q3 FY2026 compared with four in the comparative period will negatively affect results.
  • −Continued events in the Middle East entail geographic and operational exposure; management said on August 3, 2026, that it was monitoring developments in the region and their potential implications for the business. Although all planned events were held during the first seven months of 2026, any disruption could affect schedules, incentive packages, and event revenue.
  • −TKO's debt at the end of Q2 FY2026 was approximately $4.659 billion, compared with $593 million of cash and cash equivalents and $960 million of restricted cash. Net debt was $4.067 billion and net leverage was 2.2 times, making the preservation of cash flow important for funding obligations, dividends, and share repurchases together.
  • −The valuation leaves limited room for error if growth expectations are not achieved, as the average analyst target is $227, very close to the 52-week range high of $226.94, while the target range extends from $210 to $235. The P/E ratio is also unavailable in the data, despite trailing-12-month net income of $229.6 million against a market capitalization of $13.8 billion, reducing the usefulness of the traditional earnings multiple in justifying the valuation.
  • −Insider transactions provide a weak negative trading signal; net sales during the three months ended August 19, 2026, totaled approximately $20.9 million across 33 sales with no purchases. These sales may have been prearranged, so they are insufficient on their own to assess the fundamentals, but they do not provide an insider-confidence signal to counterbalance the company's share repurchase program.
How does TKO benefit from the World Cup and LA28?

On Location's World Cup hospitality sales surpassed $2 billion from more than 568 thousand packages through the end of Q2 FY2026. IMG generated adjusted earnings of $79 million and a margin of 22% in that quarter, and management expects to exceed its previous estimate of approximately $75 million for the World Cup's annual contribution. For LA28, orders surpassed $280 million across more than 20 thousand bookings two years before the games.

What is TKO's outlook for FY2026?

On August 3, 2026, management raised the revenue range to between $5.775 billion and $5.825 billion. It also raised the adjusted EBITDA range to between $2.275 billion and $2.305 billion, an increase of $25 million at the midpoint of the range from the February 2026 outlook. The revision was based on strong performance during the first six months of the year and expectations for the second half, particularly UFC's performance and the World Cup contribution.

How is TKO returning capital to shareholders?

TKO generated free cash flow of $350 million in Q2 FY2026, representing a conversion rate of 54% of adjusted earnings. It returned more than $1.3 billion to shareholders year to date, including a cash dividend on June 30, 2026, of $150 million, or $0.79 per share, and an $800 million accelerated repurchase of approximately 4.2 million shares. In July 2026, it also completed an additional program of up to $200 million through which it purchased one million shares, and slightly more than $1 billion remained available under the existing authorization.