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Home
Stocks
Target Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall94
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9Better than 94% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
79
16.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
44
2.0%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
72
13.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
68
1.5x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
75
2.91%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
95
66.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
67
24▲3Top tier
TGT

TGT Target Corporation

Target Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
155.83
▲ ⁦+0.06%⁩ (+0.10)
Market Cap$70.7B
Beta0.97
52w Low52w High
83.44170.75
Last Week
⁦-4.61%⁩
Last Month
⁦+2.32%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+21.76%⁩
Last Year
⁦+71.41%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$156
Analyst target · 9 analysts
$169
⁦+8%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$140–$200⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$208
⁦+33%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.7⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$169–$208⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 9 analysts setting price target
$166.10
⁦+6.6%⁩
Current Price $155.83·Median $169.00
Low
$140.00
High
$200.00
Current price
$155.83
Average target
$166.10
Street summary

Target Corporation (TGT) Price Target Revision

Target stock has seen a sharp upward revision in its average price target, jumping 20.5% over the past thirty days to reach 165.14, a level that almost matches the current trading price (165.91). This rapid rise in expectations reflects a positive shift in analyst estimates, although the current price has already absorbed most of these increases, narrowing the price gap available for immediate growth based on the consensus average.

As of 2026-08-27
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+16.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.16
Hold
Analyst coverage
38
Buy conviction
32%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
39%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time38 analysts rating
2
10
22
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.11 → 3.16
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-20
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-20
    Roth MKM
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-20
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.13x
    4.61x36.85x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    17.83x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.10x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    10.1%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    2.0%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    12.5%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    29.3%
    9.2%67.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    13.1%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.48x
    0.61x4.86x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.9%
    0.9%8.3%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    47.0%
    15.9%176.6%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-19 data

Company Overview

Target Corporation operates in retail through a network of nearly 2,000 stores and digital channels, and also uses its stores as fulfillment centers for more than 95% of its sales. The company combines the sale of food and beverages, beauty, health and wellness, baby products, apparel, home goods, toys, and electronics with additional revenue sources including advertising through Roundel, the Target+ online marketplace, and Target Circle 360 membership; its seven priority areas represent about 50% of sales.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, net sales reached $26.5 billion, up 5.3% year over year, while comparable sales rose 3.8%, driven by 3.6% traffic growth as the average transaction value remained approximately flat. Comparable store sales grew 2.7% and comparable digital sales grew 8.7%, with strong performance led by Fun101, food and beverages, and beauty, while growth in apparel and home remained roughly flat and did not reach management's target level.

Gross margin was 33.7% in Q2 of fiscal 2026, up 4.7 percentage points, but 3.7 percentage points of the improvement came from $994 million in pre-tax tariff refunds. Operating margin was 9.6% versus 5.2% a year earlier, representing an underlying improvement of about 70 basis points after excluding the refunds, while earnings per share were $4.11 versus $2.05; the refunds contributed $1.65, while earnings per share increased by about 20% excluding them.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Target raised its fiscal 2026 net sales growth forecast to about 5%, one percentage point above its previous forecast, and raised its earnings per share range from $7.50–$8.50 to $9.90–$10.90; the new range includes a $1.65 benefit from tariff refunds.
  • The improvement in demand is supported by a 3.6% increase in traffic in Q2 of fiscal 2026, alongside 8.7% comparable digital sales growth and more than 25% growth in same-day delivery sales. The company also fulfilled about 30% more same-day and next-day delivery units than in the prior year.
  • Space reallocation is showing tangible momentum in specific categories: snack sales growth exceeded 15% following the grocery section update, LEGO sales rose more than 30%, plush products more than 20%, and $10 Heyday headphones more than 35%. Baby essentials also rose at a double-digit rate, while Art Class, the brand aimed at the tween age group, grew 50%.
  • Higher-margin revenue sources are growing faster than the core business; Roundel's gross billings increased by about 20%, Target+ gross merchandise value rose more than 40%, and Target Circle 360 membership revenue grew more than 40% in Q2 of fiscal 2026 compared with the prior year.
  • The company continues to expand its operating capabilities; it opened 17 stores in Q2 of fiscal 2026 and 24 stores in total since the beginning of the fiscal year, and began more than 100 remodels, targeting about 130 during the year. Capital expenditure since the beginning of the fiscal year reached approximately $2.4 billion, up about 30%, with expected spending of about $5 billion for the full year.
  • Target plans to launch Target Beauty Studio in more than 600 stores during Q3 of fiscal 2026, after preparing the spaces and training beauty advisors. During the back-to-school season, wish-list creation increased by more than 50%, the number of items added to them more than doubled, and conversion through the season's landing pages rose by about 20%.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Growth in Q2 of fiscal 2026 became broad-based and was driven primarily by increased visits, as comparable sales rose 3.8% and traffic grew 3.6%, a better mix than relying on an increase in the average transaction value, which remained approximately flat.
  • +The results from categories redesigned by Target provide early quantitative evidence of the strategy's effectiveness; snack growth exceeded 15%, LEGO exceeded 30%, and Heyday headphones exceeded 35%, alongside inventory availability reliability reaching its highest levels in several years.
  • +Roundel, Target+, and Target Circle 360 provide the company with growth engines beyond traditional retail sales, with growth of about 20% for the first and more than 40% for each of the other two businesses, and management indicated that these higher-margin streams supported overall profitability.
  • +The company's ability to generate returns strengthened; return on invested capital for the twelve months ended Q2 of fiscal 2026 rose to 15.4% from 14.3%, while underlying earnings per share increased by about 20% after excluding tariff refunds.
  • +The raised fiscal 2026 net sales and earnings per share forecasts support the positive thesis, and the announced improvement is not limited to the refunds; the midpoint of the earnings per share range after excluding them is $0.75 above the midpoint of the previous range.

Valuation

The average analyst consensus price target is $165.14, within a wide range of $140 to $200, with a consensus Buy recommendation; the average is below the upper end of the 52-week range of $170.75, while the highest target exceeds that level. The wide gap between the lowest and highest targets, alongside the 52-week range of $83.44–$170.75, indicates meaningful disagreement over the sustainability of the recovery, particularly because a large portion of Q2 fiscal 2026 profit resulted from nonrecurring tariff refunds and the home and apparel turnaround still extends over several years.

BuyAnalyst target: $165.14(+6.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Target's results in Q2 of fiscal 2026?

Net sales reached $26.5 billion, up 5.3% year over year, while comparable sales rose 3.8%. Growth came primarily from a 3.6% increase in traffic, while the average transaction value remained approximately flat. Digital channels recorded comparable growth of 8.7%, led by an increase of more than 25% in same-day delivery.

How much of Target's profit in Q2 of fiscal 2026 was recurring?

Reported earnings per share were $4.11 versus $2.05 a year earlier, but tariff refunds added $1.65 to the figure. The company recorded a pre-tax benefit of $994 million, which increased operating margin by 3.7 percentage points. Excluding the refunds, earnings per share rose by about 20% and underlying operating margin improved by about 70 basis points, indicating operational improvement, though less than the reported surge.

What is Target's outlook for fiscal 2026?

The company raised its net sales growth forecast to about 5%, one percentage point above its previous forecast. It also raised its earnings per share range from $7.50–$8.50 to $9.90–$10.90. The new range includes a $1.65 benefit from tariff refunds, while the midpoint of the range excluding this benefit is $0.75 above the midpoint of the previous forecast.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −A large portion of the reported profit surge in Q2 of fiscal 2026 depends on a nonrecurring, non-operating benefit of $994 million before tax from tariff refunds; they added 3.7 percentage points to both gross and operating margins and $1.65 to earnings per share, making the reported comparison much stronger than the underlying improvement.
  • −Performance in home and apparel, both higher-margin categories, remains below management's ambitions; their growth was roughly flat in Q2 of fiscal 2026, and management described the home turnaround as a multiyear path extending into 2027 and beyond.
  • −Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose 7% year over year and reached 21.6% of sales, up about 30 basis points, due to higher compensation, labor hours, training, incentives, and spending related to capital projects. A continued increase could limit the conversion of sales growth into comparable margin expansion.
  • −Tariffs remain a financial and operational exposure; adjusted operating margin for fiscal 2025 was about 4.6% following cost pressures and investments in value, and the company continues to reduce prices after cutting them on more than 10,000 products over 12 months. The combination of tariffs and price reductions could pressure margins if not offset by changes in country of origin, supplier collaboration, and assortment improvements.
  • −The turnaround requires significant spending and execution; the company allocated about $2.4 billion to capital expenditure since the beginning of fiscal 2026 and expects approximately $5 billion for the full year, while management acknowledges that store changes are still causing disruption and that consistency has not yet reached the desired level.
  • −Insiders recorded net sales of $11.5 million during the three months ended August 24, 2026, through six sales and no purchases. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data provide no evidence to the contrary.
Is the redesign of Target's assortment and stores succeeding?

Categories in which the changes have been completed are showing strong initial results; snack sales exceeded their previous level by more than 15%, LEGO rose more than 30%, and plush products increased more than 20%. Sales of $10 Heyday headphones also rose more than 35%, while the Art Class brand increased 50%. In contrast, growth in home and apparel remained roughly flat, and management confirmed on the August 19, 2026 call that work on these two categories will extend into 2027 and beyond.

How important are digital operations and ancillary services to Target's growth?

Comparable digital sales grew 8.7% in Q2 of fiscal 2026, while same-day delivery sales rose more than 25%. Beyond direct retail sales, Roundel's gross billings increased by about 20%, while Target+ gross merchandise value and Target Circle 360 revenue each rose more than 40%. Digital traffic coming from external artificial intelligence platforms also increased at more than 3.5 times the industry's pace compared with the prior year, although management describes its overall volume as still small.

What does Target's investment and capital-return policy look like in fiscal 2026?

The company has spent approximately $2.4 billion on capital expenditure since the beginning of fiscal 2026, up about 30%, and expects about $5 billion for the full year. It paid $518 million in dividends in Q2 and slightly more than $1 billion during the first half, with a long-term goal of moving toward a 40% payout ratio. It also expects to have the capacity to resume share repurchases in the second half, with the amount and timing to be determined based on cash flows, the spending plan, and maintaining its credit ratings in the mid-A category.