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Home
Stocks
TFI International Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall72
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 7/9Better than 72% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
43
32.4x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
21
-2.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
78
7.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
49
4.4x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
64
1.36%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
71
49.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
87
10▲3Top tier
TFII

TFII TFI International Inc.

TFI International Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
131.24
▲ ⁦+0.08%⁩ (+0.11)
Market Cap$10.8B
Beta1.49
52w Low52w High
80.63167.69
Last Week
⁦+1.76%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.45%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-17.28%⁩
Last Year
⁦+38.42%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$131
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$171
⁦+30%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$150–$205⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$44
⁦-66%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦11.0⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$44–$171⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$174.40
⁦+32.9%⁩
Current Price $131.24·Median $171.00
Low
$150.00
High
$205.00
Current price
$131.24
Average target
$174.40
Street summary

Limited Improvement in Targets Amid High Dispersion

Bullish tilt

The average price target over the last 30 days rose from 170.36 to 174.4, an increase of 4.04 or 2.37%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days. The current price of 132 indicates a theoretical upside gap toward the average target, but the wide target range between 150 and 205, along with a 3.4 difference between the average and the median of 171, reflects notable dispersion among analysts. The number of analysts in the two closest snapshots also increased from 5 to 6, with no change in the average.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.16
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦19 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
84%
High
Target dispersion
42%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
6
10
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.16
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Stephens & Co.
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    TD Cowen
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    UBS
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    32.40x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    21.50x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    20.78x
    3.43x27.47x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    5.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -2.5%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -7.1%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    7.9%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.38x
    0.55x4.37x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    1.4%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    44.1%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-27 data

Company Overview

TFI International operates through three transportation and logistics segments: Less-Than-Truckload LTL, Truckload, and Logistics. The company generates revenue from transporting freight, operating specialized, flatbed, and heavy-haul trucking services, and providing brokerage and asset-light services such as final mile, value-added warehousing, and truck transportation. In fiscal Q2 2026, Truckload represented approximately 40% of segment revenue before fuel surcharges, LTL approximately 38%, and Logistics approximately 23%.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue before fuel surcharges reached $1.9 billion, up 6% year over year, and operating income increased by approximately 30% to $220 million. The operating margin expanded to 11.6% from 9.5%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $1.85, exceeding management's guidance range of $1.50–$1.60 and rising 38% year over year. The company generated more than $200 million in free cash flow, while net cash from operating activities increased to $256 million from $247 million.

At the segment level in fiscal Q2 2026, LTL generated revenue before fuel surcharges of $725 million and operating income of $86 million, representing year-over-year increases of 3% and 17%, respectively. Truckload recorded revenue of $761 million and operating income of $106 million, up 7% and 50%, while Logistics revenue increased 10% to $432 million and its operating income rose 32% to $50 million. On an annual basis, fiscal 2025 revenue declined to $7.9 billion from $8.4 billion in fiscal 2024, and net income fell to $310.6 million from $422.5 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The improvement in Truckload was the most significant operating driver in fiscal Q2 2026; operating income rose 50% to $106 million, the adjusted operating ratio improved by 400 basis points to 86.1%, and revenue per truck per week before fuel increased 13% year over year.
  • Truckload pricing accelerated during fiscal Q2 2026, with revenue per truck per week rising 11.1% in April, 13.3% in May, and 14.4% in June, while growth remained at approximately 14.5% through July 27, 2026. Management attributed this improvement primarily to tightening capacity supply rather than a surge in demand, while the spot market represents approximately 25% of the U.S. flatbed trucking business.
  • The gains from restructuring Daseke's assets are evident in the $12.5 million decline in depreciation expense during fiscal Q2 2026 despite higher organic revenue. Brokerage revenue also increased by approximately 34% to 35%, and the company continues to steer carriers such as SPD toward aerospace and Lone Star toward wind, data centers, and oversized and heavy loads.
  • Specialized activities increased demand within Truckload; management noted on July 27, 2026 that aerospace, wind, and data centers were growing, and that revenue at the steel-specialized TSH group had increased by approximately 20% to 25% year over year. In contrast, drywall activity remained weak amid soft homebuilding, making the end-market mix a critical factor in sustaining the improvement.
  • Management expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1.70 and $1.80 for fiscal Q3 2026, with year-over-year growth of up to 50% at the high end. It also expects the adjusted operating ratio to improve year over year by 500–600 basis points in Truckload and 250–350 basis points in Logistics, compared with a similar year-over-year operating ratio in LTL.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal Q2 2026 demonstrated strong operating leverage, as revenue before fuel surcharges increased by only 6%, while operating income rose by approximately 30% and the margin expanded by more than 200 basis points to 11.6%.
  • +The company has three relatively balanced profit sources, all of which recorded double-digit operating income growth in fiscal Q2 2026: 17% in LTL, 50% in Truckload, and 32% in Logistics.
  • +Generating more than $200 million in free cash flow in fiscal Q2 2026 supports capital allocation flexibility; the funded debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 2.4 from 2.5 at the beginning of the year, and the company paid approximately $40 million in quarterly dividends.
  • +The Truckload reorganization remains incomplete, as management aims to consolidate the businesses inherited from Daseke under SFI with shared commercial, financial, and fleet-management systems through 2027. Management sees the potential for Truckload's operating ratio to reach the 80%–83% range if market conditions and supply constraints remain stable, after recording 86.1% in fiscal Q2 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $174.4 and a wide range between $150 and $205. The average target is approximately 4% above the 52-week high of $167.69, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 22%, reflecting optimistic expectations that the Truckload improvement will continue. In contrast, the decline in earnings per share from $4.96 in fiscal 2024 to $3.72 in fiscal 2025 and the wide dispersion in targets remain reasons to link the valuation to evidence of a sustainable recovery in earnings and margins.

BuyAnalyst target: $174.4(+32.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove TFII's fiscal Q2 2026 results?

Revenue before fuel surcharges reached $1.9 billion, up 6% year over year, while operating income increased by approximately 30% to $220 million. The operating margin expanded to 11.6% from 9.5%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $1.85 versus management's guidance range of $1.50–$1.60. The strongest improvement came from Truckload, where operating income increased 50% and the adjusted operating ratio improved to 86.1%.

Why did TFI International's Truckload segment profitability improve?

Revenue per truck per week before fuel increased 13% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026 and accelerated to 14.4% in June 2026. The company reduced depreciation by $12.5 million during the quarter while keeping organic revenue above the prior-year level, and brokerage revenue grew by approximately 34% to 35%. SPD's specialization in aerospace and Lone Star's focus on wind, data centers, and heavy loads also contributed to improving the business mix.

What is the problem with the LTL segment, and how is the company addressing it?

The number of LTL shipments increased by 7.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, but revenue per shipment before fuel declined 2%, creating excess volume at insufficient rates. 3PL business exceeded one-third of LTL volume, and non-customer-specific blanket rates accounted for a large portion of the low-priced shipment flow. TFI International is raising prices, reducing some volume, replacing the legacy UPS Freight pricing system, and using data analysis covering approximately 500 thousand lines per month to target unprofitable customers, lanes, and terminals.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Annual results reveal a prolonged financial decline: revenue fell from $8.8 billion in fiscal 2022 to $7.9 billion in fiscal 2025, net income dropped from $823.2 million to $310.6 million, and earnings per share declined from $9.02 to $3.72 over the same period.
  • −LTL faces a pricing and channel-concentration problem; the share of third-party logistics 3PL business exceeded one-third of LTL volume, and non-customer-specific blanket rates account for approximately 55% of 3PL shipments versus 45% for customer-specific pricing. A 2% decline in revenue per shipment before fuel, combined with a 7.5% increase in shipment count in fiscal Q2 2026, strained capacity and increased overtime and third-party carrier costs.
  • −Management does not expect a year-over-year improvement in LTL's operating ratio during fiscal Q3 2026, despite expecting strong improvement in Truckload and Logistics. It also described LTL demand in the United States and Canada on July 27, 2026 as still weak, and raising prices on 3PL shipments could cause some volume losses before a sustainable improvement in profitability emerges.
  • −The improvement in Truckload depends largely on continued tightening of supply rather than strong demand growth, according to management. Some end markets remain weak, including drywall due to soft homebuilding, as well as steel and forest products in the Canadian Truckload business under the impact of tariffs and Canada-United States trade.
  • −The transportation and brokerage businesses are exposed to accidents and legal liability; the company recorded a $10.5 million increase in its accident reserve during fiscal Q2 2026. Management described this increase as exceptional and not expected to recur, but acknowledged that rapid settlements could make quarterly reserves volatile, and the company is also reviewing its brokerage carrier safety-screening procedures following a legal ruling discussed on the call.
  • −The average analyst target of $174.4 exceeds the high end of the 52-week range of $167.69, while the wide target range extends from $150 to $205. This divergence, together with the decline in annual earnings per share to $3.72 in fiscal 2025 from $4.96 in fiscal 2024, makes the realization of a rerating dependent on a continued recovery in margins rather than expansion of the earnings multiple alone.
  • What is TFII's outlook for fiscal Q3 2026?

    Management expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1.70 and $1.80, representing year-over-year growth of up to 50% at the high end. It expects the adjusted operating ratio to improve year over year by 500–600 basis points in Truckload and 250–350 basis points in Logistics, with a similar year-over-year ratio in LTL. It maintained fiscal 2026 net capital expenditures, excluding real estate, at between $225 million and $250 million, assuming no significant change in the operating environment.

    How do TFI International's liquidity and leverage look?

    The company generated more than $200 million in free cash flow in fiscal Q2 2026, and net cash from operating activities reached $256 million versus $247 million a year earlier. The funded debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 2.4 at the end of June 2026 from 2.5 at the beginning of the year. It also paid approximately $40 million in quarterly dividends, and management said leverage could approach 2 by the end of fiscal 2026 if it does not complete a major transaction.

    What role do automation and artificial intelligence play in TFI International's plan?

    Management reported on July 27, 2026 that it had begun using AI-powered analytical tools to process files containing approximately 500 thousand shipments per month and identify lanes, customers, and terminals requiring pricing adjustments. It also said that during fiscal 2026 the company is working through brokerage with a leading autonomous truck technology provider on long-haul LTL routes within the United States. Management expects the technology could be purchased and installed in new trucks during fiscal 2027, with subsequent expansion depending on initial operating results.