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Tempus AI, Inc.
TEM

TEM Tempus AI, Inc.

Tempus AI, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
59.01
▲ ⁦+0.46%⁩ (+0.27)
Market Cap$10.3B
Beta3.58
52w Low52w High
40.77104.32
Last Week
⁦-4.73%⁩
Last Month
⁦+13.37%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+15.05%⁩
Last Year
⁦-22.66%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall6
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketSucker StockF 4/8Better than 6% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
7
—17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
76
50.4%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
32
-18.2%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
22
—2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
0
0.00%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
40
-39.2%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
36
9▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$59
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$70
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$50–$80⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$69.33
⁦+17.5%⁩
Current Price $59.01·Median $70.00
Low
$50.00
High
$80.00
Current price
$59.01
Average target
$69.33
Street summary

Gradual increase in price targets amid divergent valuations

Bullish tilt

The average price target rose to 69.33, increasing by 1.11 over one day, 1.19 over seven days, and 4.19 over 30 days, or 6.43% over the month. The number of analysts remained at four, indicating that the improvement resulted from revisions to existing estimates rather than a broader coverage base. The range is between 50 and 80, with a median of 70, reflecting a notable divergence in outlook compared with the current price of 59.01.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.50
Buy
Analyst coverage
16
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
51%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time16 analysts rating
1
7
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.65 → 3.50
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    H.C. Wainwright
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
Premium content
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-05 data

Company Overview

Tempus AI operates in AI-powered precision medicine and generates revenue from two main streams: diagnostics, including solid tumor tests, liquid biopsies, genetic testing, and minimal residual disease monitoring; and data and applications, where it licenses de-identified clinical and molecular data and helps pharmaceutical companies build models to improve research and development and trial design. In Q1 FY2026, diagnostics revenue was $261.1 million, while data and applications generated $87 million, and the data licensing and modeling business grew by more than 44%.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $382.5 million, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $379.7 million, and the company reported net income of $5.6 million and earnings per share of $0.03. Diagnostics revenue was $289.3 million, or approximately 75.6% of total revenue, after growing 20%, while the other stream represented approximately $93.2 million, with data and applications revenue growing 28%.

The profit reported in Q2 FY2026 represents an important turnaround compared with a net loss of $125.9 million in Q1 FY2026 and a loss of $245 million in FY2025. However, the annual profitability record remains unstable, as the latest available trailing twelve-month data show a net loss of $254.4 million, making the sustainability of the quarterly improvement a key factor in evaluating the stock.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Tempus AI raised its FY2026 revenue guidance to a range of $1.595–$1.605 billion, representing annual growth of 25%, after Q2 FY2026 revenue reached $382.5 million and exceeded analysts’ estimates.
  • The acceleration of the data business expands future revenue visibility; in Q1 FY2026, data and applications revenue was $87 million, growing 40.5%, and the company recorded its third consecutive quarter of bookings exceeding $100 million, with total contract value increasing.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company added Merck to its list of major strategic collaborations and expanded its relationship with Gilead during Q1 FY2026, and management said that approximately six pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies had signed major strategic agreements, some exceeding $100 million and extending over multiple years.
  • Management expects U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of xT CDx to add approximately $400 million in incremental revenue by 2028, with expected gross margins between 72% and 75% in data and applications associated with this expansion.
  • Positive phase 3 results for Merck and Moderna’s mRNA cancer vaccine on August 20, 2026, renewed attention on Tempus AI’s exposure to advanced oncology diagnostics and its $1.5 billion acquisition of Personalis.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Tempus AI’s model combines growing oncology diagnostics with data revenue and multi-year contracts; both streams grew in Q2 FY2026, with diagnostics increasing 20% and data and applications increasing 28%.
    • +A database exceeding 500 petabytes and a platform connected to central and graphics processing units provide a foundation for data licensing agreements and model building with companies such as Merck, AstraZeneca, Gilead, GSK, and BMS, strengthening the company’s differentiation within pharmaceutical research.
    • +The testing portfolio shows several growth drivers, as oncology volumes grew 28% in Q1 FY2026, the minimal residual disease test achieved growth of 500% to 6,500 tests, and the algorithm attachment rate for solid tumor tests reached approximately 40%.
    • +The increase in FY2026 revenue guidance to $1.595–$1.605 billion, alongside expected adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $65 million, supports the possibility that growth could translate into operational improvement if the expansion of the high-margin data business continues.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Profitability has not yet proven sustainable; despite achieving net income of $5.6 million in Q2 FY2026, the company recorded a loss of $125.9 million in Q1 FY2026 and a loss of $245 million in FY2025, while negative operating cash flow in Q1 was approximately $70 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were negative by approximately $3 million.
    • −The vast majority of data licensing revenue depends on oncology and comes almost entirely from therapy selection work; therefore, the data stream remains exposed to clear disease and product concentration despite the launch of a multimillion-dollar project to build a multimodal model for Alzheimer’s disease.
    • −Growth rates slowed between the quarters; diagnostics growth declined from approximately 35% in Q1 FY2026 to 20% in Q2, and data and applications growth fell from 40.5% to 28%. Management also acknowledged a slowdown in genetic testing while comparing results with high growth rates in the prior year.
    • −Reimbursement economics constrain the expansion of minimal residual disease testing; management said that approximately 97% of tests are tumor-informed and that fully deploying the sales force could increase cash burn at Personalis, so volume growth is being controlled until coverage and reimbursement improve.
    • −The timing of some pricing gains remains subject to regulatory uncertainty; as of May 5, 2026, there was no update regarding the xF submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and the company did not expect the submission to affect pricing or average selling price during FY2026.
    • −Insider transactions during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 25, 2026, showed net sales of $58 million across 86 sales with no purchases; this is a weak standalone trading signal because such sales may be prearranged, but it comes alongside a wide 52-week valuation range of $40.77 to $104.32.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $59.4, within a range of $50 to $70, with a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is approximately 45.7% above the 52-week range low of $40.77, but approximately 43.1% below the high of $104.32. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available due to annual losses, so the valuation depends heavily on the achievement of FY2026 revenue guidance and the sustainability of profitability after Q2, while the large gap between the consensus target and the 52-week high reflects the repricing risk of a highly volatile growth stock.

    BuyAnalyst target: $59.4(+0.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Tempus AI generate its revenue?

    Tempus AI generates its revenue from diagnostics and from data and applications. In Q1 FY2026, diagnostics recorded $261.1 million, while data and applications recorded $87 million. Products include solid tumor tests, liquid biopsies, genetic testing, and minimal residual disease monitoring, alongside licensing de-identified data and building models for pharmaceutical companies.

    What did Tempus AI achieve in Q2 FY2026?

    Revenue was $382.5 million, compared with analysts’ estimates of $379.7 million. The company reported net income of $5.6 million and earnings per share of $0.03, its first reported profit under generally accepted accounting principles. Diagnostics revenue was $289.3 million, growing 20%, while data and applications grew 28%.

    What is Tempus AI’s outlook for FY2026?

    The company raised its revenue guidance to a range of $1.595–$1.605 billion, representing annual growth of 25%. On the May 5, 2026 call, management had guided to a range of $1.59–$1.6 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $65 million. The expected improvement in the second half of FY2026 depends partly on a higher contribution from the higher-margin data business.

    What is the importance of xT CDx and xF to Tempus AI’s growth?

    Management expects U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of xT CDx to add approximately $400 million in incremental revenue by 2028. The company estimated the data and applications margin associated with this expansion at between 72% and 75%. As for the xF submission, there was no update as of May 5, 2026, and management did not expect it to affect pricing or average selling price during FY2026.

    What are the main investment risks in TEM?

    The main risks are continuing annual losses, the concentration of the vast majority of data licensing in oncology and therapy selection, and the dependence of minimal residual disease expansion on improved reimbursement. Diagnostics growth also slowed from approximately 35% in Q1 FY2026 to 20% in Q2, while data and applications growth fell from 40.5% to 28%. In addition, net insider sales over three months reached $58 million through August 25, 2026, although these sales may be prearranged and are not sufficient on their own to support a negative thesis.