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Home
Stocks
The Toronto-Dominion Bank
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall85
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 4/9Better than 85% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
69
12.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
49
29.3%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
75
——Top tier
▸
Safety
10
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
73
2.48%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
97
61.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
76
7▲3Top tier
TD

TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank

The Toronto-Dominion Bank · NYSE
Market Closed
120.97
▲ ⁦+0.69%⁩ (+0.83)
Market Cap$204.4B
Beta0.87
52w Low52w High
76.01125.47
Last Week
⁦-1.90%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.90%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+4.06%⁩
Last Year
⁦+59.46%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$121
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$90
⁦-26%⁩
See it clearly overvalued
Range ⁦$88–$92⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-120.15
⁦-199%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.2⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$-120.15–$90⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$89.52
⁦-26.0%⁩
Current Price $120.97·Median $89.52
Low
$87.53
High
$91.51
Current price
$120.97
Average target
$89.52
Street summary

Stable Targets with a Negative Gap from the Price

Bearish tilt

Toronto-Dominion Bank’s targets have not changed over the last 30 days; the average and median target remained at 89.52, with a limited range between 87.53 and 91.51, and a methodology based on only one analyst. Compared with the current price of 121.63, the available targets reflect a more conservative outlook, but the limited number of analysts reduces confidence in measuring dispersion and consensus.

As of 2026-09-04
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.71
Buy
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
64%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
3%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
5
4
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.33 → 3.71
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-28
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-28
    Scotiabank
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    Barclays
    Underweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.35x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    29.3%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -19.9%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    2.5%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    44.9%
    9.8%97.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-27 data

Company Overview

The Toronto-Dominion Bank operates through a diversified banking group that includes Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, U.S. Retail, Wealth Management and Insurance, and Wholesale Banking through TD Securities. The bank earns revenue from lending and deposit spreads, service, transaction, asset management, and insurance fees, as well as capital markets, financing, and advisory activities; its Q3 fiscal 2026 results showed broad contributions from these activities, with record earnings in its Canadian businesses, Wealth Management and Insurance, and Wholesale Banking, and 11% year-over-year earnings growth in the U.S. segment.

In Q3 fiscal 2026, TD reported, under the adjusted measures used by management, revenue of $16.89 billion, up 8% year over year, record earnings of approximately $4.7 billion, and record adjusted earnings per share of $2.77 versus analyst expectations of $2.47. Return on equity reached 16%, up 280 basis points year over year, while the efficiency ratio excluding insurance service expenses reached 55.2%, and the bank delivered positive operating leverage for the fifth consecutive quarter.

The performance mix was supported by volume and margin growth in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, where personal loans rose 4% and business loans 8% year over year, as well as record results in Wealth Management and Insurance and Wholesale Banking. In the United States, card balances rose 20%, middle-market loans 15%, and home equity loans 6% year over year, while the net interest margin reached a record 3.47%. The CET1 capital ratio was also approximately 14.3%, giving the bank capacity to fund growth and return capital to shareholders.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Adjusted earnings per share in Q3 fiscal 2026 clearly exceeded expectations, reaching $2.77 versus consensus of $2.47, alongside 8% revenue growth and an increase in return on equity to 16%.
  • Credit quality improved during Q3 fiscal 2026; impaired loan provisions declined by $108 million quarter over quarter to $865 million, and the provision for credit losses ratio fell six basis points to 37 basis points. Management therefore expects the annual ratio to approach the lower end of the 40 to 50 basis-point range.
  • Organic growth drivers are accelerating in the United States, with card balances up 20%, middle-market loans up 15%, and home equity loans up 6% year over year, in addition to a plan, subject to regulatory approval, to open 100 branches by the end of 2028 and add approximately 450 bankers to the distribution network.
  • Wealth Management and Insurance achieved record revenue, earnings, and assets; new accounts grew 26% year over year, daily trades increased 20%, and referrals to advisory services reached $1.4 billion in the quarter, up 34%.
  • Value realized from artificial intelligence applications came close to the fiscal 2026 target of $200 million after only three quarters, with more than 20 thousand customer-facing employees supported by generative knowledge-management tools and approximately one-third of manual processes in Canadian auto finance automated.
  • TD has already achieved its fiscal 2026 structural cost-reduction target of $900 million and is progressing toward its medium-term target of $2 to $2.5 billion, helping limit underlying expense growth to 1% after excluding variable compensation, foreign exchange, and the U.S. strategic card portfolio.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +TD delivered broad-based growth in Q3 fiscal 2026, including 8% higher revenue, record earnings and earnings per share, and a 16% return on equity, rather than relying on only one business activity.
  • +The strong capital base, represented by a CET1 ratio of 14.3%, supports both growth funding and capital returns; the bank repurchased approximately 14.5 million shares during the quarter, and management estimated the potential for more than $13 billion in repurchases in fiscal 2027 if organic capital accumulation and risk-weighted asset growth continue along the assumed path.
  • +Improved credit quality and the reduced provision for credit losses outlook toward the lower end of the 40 to 50 basis-point range support earnings, while the bank retains approximately $500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.
  • +Distribution expansion in Canada and the United States provides a path for organic growth; Canadian digital sales increased 17%, small-business customer acquisition 13%, and commercial customer acquisition 10% since the beginning of fiscal 2026, alongside the U.S. branch plan through the end of 2028.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average target of $89.52 and a range of $87.53 to $91.51, while the 52-week range extends from $73.80 to $125.47; the average target is approximately 21% above the low and approximately 29% below the high. On August 28, 2026, Scotiabank raised its separate target to C$187 with an Outperform rating, but the difference in currency and methodology makes this target not directly comparable with the U.S. dollar-denominated consensus range, while the consensus average remaining far from the 52-week high reflects a degree of caution regarding regulatory remediation risks and the trade environment.

BuyAnalyst target: $89.52(-26.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why were TD's Q3 fiscal 2026 results stronger than expected?

Adjusted earnings per share reached $2.77 versus analyst expectations of $2.47, with revenue growing 8% to $16.89 billion. The results benefited from margin expansion and volume growth in Canadian banking, alongside strong activity and favorable market conditions in Wealth Management and Wholesale Banking. Impaired loan provisions also declined by $108 million quarter over quarter to $865 million, supporting adjusted earnings of approximately $4.7 billion.

Why is TD's plan to open new branches in the United States important?

TD plans, subject to regulatory approval, to open 100 branches from Maine to Florida by the end of 2028, accelerating some openings during 2027 and concentrating most of them in 2028. The plan follows the consolidation of 91 branches over the previous two years and aims to reposition the network and deepen its presence in major urban markets on the East Coast. The bank will also add approximately 450 retail and business bankers, while aiming to fund a large portion of the investment through cost reductions and productivity gains.

Have TD's U.S. anti-money laundering risks ended?

Regulatory consent orders remained in effect through Q3 fiscal 2026, and the bank described completing remediation comprehensively and urgently as the top priority for the U.S. segment. TD expects total expenses of approximately $550 million for the U.S. remediation program during fiscal 2026. Management reported progress in reviewing historical transactions and expanding financial-crime risk assessments, transaction monitoring, and specialized training, but it did not announce the program's completion.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The U.S. anti-money laundering remediation program remains a material regulatory and financial risk; consent orders remain in effect, TD expects U.S. remediation expenses of approximately $550 million in fiscal 2026, and branch expansion remains subject to regulatory approval.
  • −Uncertainty surrounding Canada-U.S. trade relations may affect credit demand and asset quality; the bank has allocated approximately $500 million for policy and trade risks and emphasized that its earnings and provisioning outlook is conditional on current economic conditions continuing.
  • −The record Q3 fiscal 2026 results in Wealth Management and Wholesale Banking benefited partly from higher client activity and favorable market conditions, making a portion of fee and earnings growth vulnerable to declines in capital-markets activity or asset prices.
  • −The plan to open 100 U.S. branches by the end of 2028 and add approximately 450 bankers entails execution risks and costs that precede revenue; U.S. segment expenses have already risen 6% year over year due to the card portfolio conversion, higher employee costs, and spending on growth initiatives.
  • −Competition in Canadian mortgage lending remains a potential pricing pressure; although TD achieved 4% year-over-year growth and maintained margin expansion in Q3 fiscal 2026, management described the summer market as competitive and emphasized the need for continued pricing discipline.
  • −The average analyst target is $89.52, within a narrow range of $87.53 to $91.51, approximately 29% below the 52-week range high of $125.47; this divergence indicates that the underlying consensus is more conservative than the stock's highest valuation during the year, despite the Buy rating.
What does the quality of TD's loan portfolio look like in Q3 fiscal 2026?

The provision for credit losses ratio was 37 basis points, down six basis points quarter over quarter, while gross impaired loans fell to 51 basis points. Impaired loan provisions declined by $108 million to $865 million, with improvement in business and government lending portfolios. Management expects fiscal 2026 provisions to approach the lower end of the 40 to 50 basis-point range, with approximately $500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.

What is driving TD's growth outside traditional lending?

Wealth Management and Insurance achieved record revenue, earnings, and assets in Q3 fiscal 2026, with new accounts growing 26% and daily trades 20% year over year. The direct-investing platform referred $1.4 billion to advisory services during the quarter, up 34%, while wealth referrals since the beginning of the year reached $24 billion. At TD Securities, equities, commodities, underwriting, and advisory services contributed to record results, while Global Transaction Banking deposits rose 18% year over year.

How is TD using artificial intelligence to reduce costs and improve service?

After three quarters of fiscal 2026, TD had nearly achieved its annual target of $200 million in artificial intelligence-related value. More than 20 thousand customer-facing employees in Canada use generative knowledge-management solutions, while TD Auto Finance Canada has automated approximately one-third of manual financing processes. The bank also expanded use cases to credit decisions, document review, software development, and contact centers, in addition to artificial intelligence-based vehicle damage assessment at TD Insurance.