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Stocks
Trip.com Group Limited
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall87
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 7/9Better than 87% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
81
5.8x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
91
16.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
87
5.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
83
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
64
0.81%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
4
-35.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
67
13▲3Top tier
TCOM

TCOM Trip.com Group Limited

Trip.com Group Limited · NASDAQ
Market Closed
39.02
▲ ⁦+0.83%⁩ (+0.32)
Market Cap$25.1B
Beta-0.04
52w Low52w High
38.0478.99
Last Week
⁦-10.57%⁩
Last Month
⁦-15.54%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-18.66%⁩
Last Year
⁦-46.10%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$39
Analyst target · 15 analysts
$54
⁦+38%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$44–$63⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 15 analysts setting price target
$53.83
⁦+38.0%⁩
Current Price $39.02·Median $54.00
Low
$44.30
High
$63.00
Current price
$39.02
Average target
$53.83
Street summary

A clear reduction in TCOM’s consensus price targets amid divergent valuations

The consensus target price remained at 53.83, unchanged over the past day or seven days, but declined over the past 30 days from 60.58 to 53.83, a decrease of 6.75 or 11.14%, while the number of analysts remained at 15. The current range is between 44.3 and 63, while the median is 54, indicating notable divergence among estimates despite the consensus remaining above the current price of 38.7.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-11.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.07
Buy
Analyst coverage
29
Buy conviction
86%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
48%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time29 analysts rating
6
19
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.09 → 4.07
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-03
    HSBC
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Bank of America Securities
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    Jefferies
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    5.84x
    4.56x36.49x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.59x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.4%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    16.8%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    79.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    80.3%
    12.0%66.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    5.2%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    4.7%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-06-24 data

Company Overview

Trip.com Group operates online travel booking platforms and generates revenue from accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, tours, and corporate travel. In Q1 FY2026, gross bookings for its core online travel agency business reached approximately 300 billion yuan, while its globally available offerings included around 450 thousand hotels and 180 thousand local attraction products. The group supports this business with an integrated platform for hotels, flights, attractions, and transportation, as well as round-the-clock customer service in more than 30 languages.

In Q1 FY2026, net revenue increased 17% year over year to 16.2 billion yuan, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached 4.8 billion yuan, compared with 4.2 billion yuan, equivalent to a margin of approximately 29.6%. Diluted earnings per ordinary share and depositary receipt were 3.67 yuan, or 0.53 dollars, and on a non-GAAP basis were 5.73 yuan, or 0.83 dollars. Accommodation reservations accounted for 6.5 billion yuan of revenue, transportation ticketing 6.1 billion yuan, tours 1.1 billion yuan, and corporate travel 690 million yuan.

In FY2025, revenue was 62.4 billion dollars, gross profit was 50.3 billion dollars, and net income was 33.3 billion dollars, compared with revenue of 53.3 billion dollars and net income of 17.1 billion dollars in FY2024. Based on these figures, the gross profit margin was approximately 80.6% and the net income margin was approximately 53.4% in FY2025. As of March 31, 2026, the group also held cash, investments, deposits, and financial products worth 104 billion yuan, or 15.1 billion dollars.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The international online travel agency business achieved gross booking growth of approximately 65% year over year in Q1 FY2026, while inbound travel bookings grew by approximately 90%. Trip.com served around 7 million inbound travelers during the quarter, following approximately 20 million in the previous year, as part of its goal to serve 200 million inbound travelers within five years.
  • Accommodation revenue increased 17% to 6.5 billion yuan in Q1 FY2026, supported by momentum in international hotel bookings, while transportation ticketing revenue rose 12% to 6.1 billion yuan, driven by global expansion and demand for international air and ground transportation. Tour revenue also grew 19% to 1.1 billion yuan, and corporate travel revenue increased 20% to 690 million yuan.
  • The domestic ecosystem supporting inbound travel expanded to include more than 110 thousand partners in Q1 FY2026, and approximately 14 thousand partners received their first international order through the platform. The group also works with partners in 29 high-potential destinations to integrate attractions, accommodation, and local services into comprehensive travel itineraries.
  • Bookings for travel associated with entertainment events increased 74% year over year in Q1 FY2026, and hotel bookings through Old Friends Club rose by more than 100%. Domestic small-group tour orders also grew 27%, with per-person spending 55% higher and stays 11% longer compared with large-group tours.
  • Trip.com integrated its core search with its AI-powered assistant to enable natural-language and voice search, and is working to make real-time travel data, inventory, pricing, and transaction execution available to AI agents through APIs, MCP, and Skills. Its content ecosystem connects more than 500 thousand travel brands and suppliers with more than 10 thousand qualified content creators.
  • Management expects net revenue growth of between 3% and 8% year over year in Q2 FY2026, following growth of 17% in Q1 FY2026. This announced slowdown in the pace of growth, alongside continued strength in inbound travel and international accommodation, makes it a key focus when evaluating the stock's performance.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The buying case is based on rapid international expansion, as gross bookings on the international platform increased by approximately 65% and inbound travel bookings grew by approximately 90% in Q1 FY2026, with broad demand from Asia, Europe, and the United States.
  • +Revenue diversification gives Trip.com more than one growth driver; accommodation, transportation, tours, and corporate travel achieved annual growth of 17%, 12%, 19%, and 20%, respectively, in Q1 FY2026, rather than relying on a single business.
  • +Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased to 4.8 billion yuan in Q1 FY2026 from 4.2 billion yuan a year earlier, and the balance of cash, investments, deposits, and financial products reached 104 billion yuan as of March 31, 2026, providing resources to fund expansion and product development.
  • +The group has an execution infrastructure that extends well beyond travel recommendations, including approximately 450 thousand hotels, 180 thousand local attraction products, and customer service in more than 30 languages. Connecting this infrastructure to AI platforms could allow it to capture demand whether the booking begins within the Trip.com app or through an external agent.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of 55.77 dollars, a high target of 63 dollars, and a low target of 44.3 dollars. The average target is below the midpoint of the 52-week range of 38.04–78.99 dollars and is approximately 29% below its high, while the wide range of targets reflects differing estimates regarding the impact of slowing Q2 FY2026 growth and regulatory scrutiny versus the strength of international expansion. The data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio, so the available valuation is based on the target range and the 52-week range rather than an earnings multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $55.77(+42.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Trip.com's main growth drivers in Q1 FY2026?

Net revenue reached 16.2 billion yuan in Q1 FY2026, an increase of 17% year over year. Gross bookings on the international platform grew by approximately 65%, while inbound travel bookings increased by approximately 90%. Bookings for travel associated with entertainment events also rose 74%, and Old Friends Club hotel bookings increased by more than 100%.

How is Trip.com's business distributed across accommodation, transportation, and other segments?

Accommodation reservations generated revenue of 6.5 billion yuan in Q1 FY2026, with annual growth of 17%. Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.1 billion yuan, growing 12%, while tours recorded 1.1 billion yuan, growing 19%. Corporate travel generated 690 million yuan, an increase of 20% year over year.

How important is inbound travel to China for TCOM's growth?

Trip.com served approximately 7 million inbound travelers in Q1 FY2026, after receiving approximately 20 million in the previous year. The group aims to serve 200 million inbound travelers within five years, benefiting from visa-free policies and improvements in payment methods and air connectivity. During the quarter, it worked with more than 110 thousand suppliers in services related to inbound travel, and approximately 14 thousand of them received their first international order through the platform.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −The Q2 FY2026 outlook indicates a clear slowdown, as management expects revenue growth of only between 3% and 8% year over year, compared with 17% in Q1 FY2026. Management also said that visibility into the second half is limited because of the short booking window and that it expects continued volatility across markets and sectors.
  • −Energy prices and geopolitical tensions are pressuring demand through higher airfares, reduced airline capacity, and disruption to some international routes, particularly long-haul flights. Management confirmed that air travel demand in China weakened compared with Q1 FY2026 and that higher prices reduced demand on some long-haul international routes.
  • −Regulatory scrutiny remains ongoing without an announced timeline or outcome, and management acknowledged that modifying operating practices to strengthen compliance and governance could affect financial performance in the near term. New requirements related to train ticket booking may also pressure value-added products and services associated with rail travel, and part of this impact has been included in the Q2 FY2026 outlook.
  • −Adjusted sales and marketing expenses increased 24% year over year in Q1 FY2026, a pace exceeding revenue growth of 17%, as a result of intensified marketing associated with expansion. If this gap persists alongside slowing revenue growth, it could limit margin improvement despite higher adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
  • −AI platforms are changing how trips are discovered and planned, which could shift the starting point of the customer relationship away from traditional travel agency apps. Trip.com is addressing this risk by integrating its AI assistant into search and opening its inventory through APIs, MCP, and Skills, but its success depends on retaining its role as a trusted execution provider within these new channels.
  • −The wide range of analyst targets, from 44.3 dollars to 63 dollars, reflects substantial disagreement about the stock's value, while the average target of 55.77 dollars is approximately 29% below the 52-week range high of 78.99 dollars. This indicates that a return to the previous high would require results exceeding the level embedded in the average analyst estimates, while no price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data to provide an additional valuation anchor.
How does Trip.com use AI in its travel business?

Trip.com integrated its core search with its AI-powered assistant, enabling users to enter complex requests in natural language or by voice and receive bookable results. It also uses automated tools to improve supplier content, including video, and accelerate customer service responses. The group makes its data, inventory, real-time pricing, and transaction execution capabilities available to external agents through APIs, MCP, and Skills, with the aim of participating in the journey even when planning begins on another platform.

Why is Trip.com's outlook slowing in Q2 FY2026?

Management expects net revenue growth of between 3% and 8% year over year in Q2 FY2026, compared with growth of 17% in the previous quarter. It attributed the slowdown to higher energy prices and airfares, constrained airline capacity, and disruption to some long-haul international routes. The outlook also includes the impact of product and operational adjustments related to new compliance standards, including potential pressure on some value-added train ticketing services.

What are the main strengths and risks in TCOM's stock valuation?

The average analyst price target is 55.77 dollars, within a range of 44.3 to 63 dollars, and the recommendation consensus is “Buy.” This average is below the midpoint of the 52-week range of 38.04–78.99 dollars, making it more conservative than the high reached by the stock during that range. The valuation is supported by strong international growth and liquidity of 104 billion yuan as of March 31, 2026, while it is pressured by the slowing Q2 FY2026 outlook, ongoing regulatory scrutiny, and the absence of a price-to-earnings ratio in the data.