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BBB Foods Inc.
TBBB

TBBB BBB Foods Inc.

BBB Foods Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
50.46
▼ ⁦-1.71%⁩ (-0.88)
Market Cap$5.8B
Beta-0.02
52w Low52w High
23.8152.22
Last Week
⁦+2.25%⁩
Last Month
⁦+24.07%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+39.62%⁩
Last Year
⁦+93.93%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall31
Weak — below market medianMomentum TrapF 4/9Better than 31% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
45
—17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
63
35.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
14
-5.3%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
42
23.5x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
6
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
97
62.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
33
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$50
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$53
⁦+4%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$42–$65⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$47
⁦-7%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦11⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$47–$53⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$53.00
⁦+5.0%⁩
Current Price $50.46·Median $52.50
Low
$42.00
High
$65.00
Current price
$50.46
Average target
$53.00
Street summary

Consensus Target Rises as Coverage Declines

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 47 to 53, an increase of 6 dollars or 12.77%, while it remained unchanged over the last 7 days and 1 day. The current price stands at 50.78 versus a consensus of 53, with a wide range between 42 and 65, reflecting notable divergence in estimates. However, the number of analysts included in the consensus declined from 3 to 1, so the rise in the consensus cannot be considered sufficient evidence of increased confidence.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+12.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.23
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦13 (-2)⁩
Buy conviction
85%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
46%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
5
6
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.08 → 4.23
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-28
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    Scotiabank
    Outperform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-04
    UBS
    NeutralBuy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    119.67x
    2.86x22.90x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.3%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    35.2%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -2657.9%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    16.4%
    9.2%67.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    -5.3%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    23.53x
    0.61x4.86x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-13 data

Company Overview

BBB Foods Inc., through Tiendas 3B, operates a network of discount stores in Mexico based on a limited assortment of high-turnover goods, including private-label products, with a focus on improving customer value and increasing the number of items per transaction. The company generates revenue from store sales and supports its model through dense store coverage within existing regions and selective expansion into new regions; the store count reached 3,624 as of June 30, 2026, after 155 net store openings during Q2 FY2026, while the distribution network reached 21 regions.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue rose by approximately 39% year over year to 26 billion Mexican pesos, or 26,037 million pesos according to the news published on August 12, 2026, and same-store sales grew 20%. Approximately two-thirds of same-store sales growth came from volume and one-third from price, with improved product mix accounting for the largest component of the price effect amid very low internal inflation. Reported EBITDA was 960 million pesos and increased 44% to 1.6 billion pesos after excluding non-cash stock-based compensation, while the adjusted margin was 6.2% after excluding a non-recurring cash expense of 37 million pesos related to the May 2026 equity offering.

Despite strong operating performance, the company recorded a net loss of 386 million Mexican pesos in Q2 FY2026 due to financing costs and foreign exchange losses, along with the impact of administrative expenses related to stock-based payments. EDGAR data show annual revenue expanding from $57.4 billion in FY2024 to $78.2 billion in FY2025 and gross profit rising from $9.4 billion to $12.6 billion, but the net result shifted from a profit of $334.4 million to a loss of $2.8 billion, with negative earnings per share of $24.69 in FY2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The opening of 155 net stores in Q2 FY2026 increased the network to 3,624 stores, while net openings during the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, totaled approximately 593 stores, representing 20% growth in the store base.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Same-store sales jumped 20% in Q2 FY2026, with approximately two-thirds of the growth resulting from higher volume rather than price increases, supported by improved customer value, brand awareness, customer loyalty, and increased share of wallet.
  • The company opened one distribution center in Q2 FY2026, followed by two additional centers afterward, and said it was targeting a total of three new centers during Q3 FY2026; the broader network may support transportation efficiency over the longer term despite initial expense pressure.
  • EBITDA, after excluding non-cash stock-based compensation, increased 44% to 1.6 billion pesos in Q2 FY2026, with the adjusted margin improving by 21 basis points year over year.
  • Operating activities generated 4.3 billion pesos of cash flow during the first half of FY2026, up 119% from the corresponding period, and management said this cash flow fully funds organic expansion within an adjusted negative working capital model that reached 10.2 billion pesos in June 2026.
  • The new enterprise resource planning system had entered phase-one testing by the August 13, 2026 call, and management explained that artificial intelligence tools accelerated programming and enabled the delivery of additional features, while the new point-of-sale system provides flexibility to offer other services to customers in the future.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The Tiendas 3B model combines 39% revenue growth with 20% same-store sales growth in Q2 FY2026, demonstrating that expansion came from both new stores and improved performance across the existing store base.
    • +Operating cash flow of 4.3 billion pesos in the first half of FY2026 provides self-funding for expansion, reinforced by a negative working capital model and fast-turning inventory that remained below 20 days.
    • +Improved operating efficiency is evident in selling expenses declining by 56 basis points to 10% of revenue and adjusted EBITDA increasing 44% during Q2 FY2026.
    • +The company applies the upgraded store design to 100% of new locations, and management said on August 13, 2026 that this design outperforms older stores and that the FY2026 store cohort is developing in line with the unit economics it had previously projected.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The annual result shifted from a net profit of $334.4 million in FY2024 to a loss of $2.8 billion in FY2025, and the company then recorded a net loss of 386 million pesos in Q2 FY2026 due to financing costs and foreign exchange losses, showing that sales growth has not yet translated into stable net profitability.
    • −Rapid expansion adds execution risk, as the company opened 593 net stores during the twelve months ended June 30, 2026 and was in the process of adding three distribution centers during Q3 FY2026, and management explicitly warned of potential pressure on logistics expenses during that quarter.
    • −Management expected administrative expenses to remain near 3% of revenue in the short term as investment in talent continued, after administrative expenses adjusted to exclude stock-based payments increased by 57 basis points in Q2 FY2026; this investment may limit operating leverage outside selling expenses.
    • −Tiendas 3B operates in a Mexican discount market that management described as highly competitive, and analysts specifically discussed FEMSA's expansion during the August 13, 2026 call; therefore, same-store sales growth or the ability to improve margins could face pressure if competitors accelerate their store openings.
    • −No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available given negative earnings per share of $24.69 in FY2025, and the range of analyst targets is wide at $42 to $65; this breadth reflects the valuation's sensitivity to differing assumptions regarding profitability and the cost of expansion.
    • −Net insider transactions during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 1, 2026 amounted to $26.1 million in sales, with one purchase and four sales; this is only a secondary signal because insider sales may be prearranged, and this context does not establish their motivations.

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $53, compared with a high target of $65 and a low target of $42, with the consensus rating at Buy; the average is slightly above the 52-week range high of $51.62, while the breadth of the targets reveals notable divergence in estimates of the profitability trajectory. No meaningful price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, which is consistent with the FY2025 loss and negative earnings per share, so the valuation depends heavily on continued store and sales growth and the conversion of operating earnings and cash flows into sustainable net profit.

    BuyAnalyst target: $53(+5.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove TBBB's growth in Q2 FY2026?

    BBB Foods' revenue increased by approximately 39% to 26 billion Mexican pesos, and same-store sales rose 20% in Q2 FY2026. Approximately two-thirds of same-store sales growth came from volume and one-third from price, with improved product mix being the largest factor within the price effect. Tiendas 3B also opened approximately 155 net stores during the quarter, bringing the total to 3,624 stores as of June 30, 2026.

    Did BBB Foods generate a net profit in Q2 FY2026?

    The company recorded a net loss of 386 million Mexican pesos in Q2 FY2026. The loss was attributed to financing costs and foreign exchange losses, in addition to the impact of administrative expenses related to stock-based payments. In contrast, reported EBITDA was 960 million pesos and reached 1.6 billion pesos after excluding non-cash stock-based compensation.

    How does Tiendas 3B fund store and distribution center openings?

    Cash flow from operating activities reached 4.3 billion pesos in the first half of FY2026, up 119% year over year. Management said during the August 13, 2026 call that this cash flow fully funds organic expansion. This is supported by adjusted negative working capital of 10.2 billion pesos in June 2026 and fast-turning inventory with fewer than 20 days on hand.

    What are TBBB's main margin risks?

    Logistics expenses may face pressure during Q3 FY2026 due to the addition of three new distribution centers. Administrative expenses, after excluding stock-based payments, also increased by 57 basis points in Q2 FY2026, and management expects them to remain near 3% of revenue in the short term. Nevertheless, the adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 21 basis points and reached 6.2% after excluding a non-recurring equity offering expense of 37 million pesos.

    What is the significance of the upgraded stores and the new enterprise resource planning system?

    Tiendas 3B opened 100% of its new stores using the upgraded design, which includes more space and additional doors for refrigerated goods, and management said it performs better than the older design. The FY2026 store cohort was developing in line with expected unit economics, with faster customer acquisition during the opening phase. On August 13, 2026, the new enterprise resource planning system was in phase-one testing, with a more capable point-of-sale system able to support additional customer services.

    What is the analyst outlook for TBBB's valuation?

    The analyst consensus is rated Buy, with an average price target of $53. The target range extends from $42 to $65, compared with a 52-week range of $23.81 to $51.62, and the average target is slightly above the annual high. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data because of the loss and negative earnings per share in FY2025, so the valuation thesis is tied to the company's ability to convert operating growth into sustainable net profit.