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Molson Coors Beverage Company
TAP

TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company

Molson Coors Beverage Company · NYSE
Market Closed
38.93
▲ ⁦+1.27%⁩ (+0.49)
Market Cap$7.3B
Beta0.43
52w Low52w High
37.7654.82
Last Week
⁦-3.97%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.24%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.04%⁩
Last Year
⁦-22.65%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall29
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 3/8DistressBetter than 29% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
95
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
11
-5.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
23
-10.6%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
41
—2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
30
4.83%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
18
-17.8%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
84
12▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$39
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$41
⁦+5%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$41–$46⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$76
⁦+96%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$41–$76⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$42.80
⁦+9.9%⁩
Current Price $38.93·Median $41.00
Low
$41.00
High
$46.00
Current price
$38.93
Average target
$42.80
Street summary

Downward revision in Molson Coors (TAP) price targets

Bearish tilt

Molson Coors stock has seen a notable downward revision in analyst forecasts, with the average price target falling by 5.41% over the last 24 hours to reach 42.8, compared to 45.25 previously. This rapid change reflects a decline in optimism, especially as the current price (42.49) is now very close to the average target, with a narrow gap between the high (46) and low (41) price targets, indicating a consensus on limited price growth opportunities.

As of 2026-08-19
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-5.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.05
Hold
Analyst coverage
21
Buy conviction
29%
Target dispersion
13%
Analyst ratings over time21 analysts rating
2
4
11
1
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.05 → 3.05
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-05-04
    Barclays
    —· $41.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-04
    Morgan Stanley
    —· $46.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    8.11x
    3.86x30.86x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    18.1%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -5.4%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -327.2%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    32.6%
    9.2%67.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    -10.6%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    4.8%
    0.9%8.3%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.80
    -4.825.90
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Molson Coors Beverage Company produces and markets beverages, with its core business centered on the Miller and Coors beer franchises and brands including Coors Light, Miller Lite, Coors Banquet, Carling, Peroni, Blue Moon, Staropramen, and Ozujsko. The Horizon 2030 strategy supports the core brands, increases the presence of premium categories, and expands beyond traditional beer through Fever-Tree, Topo Chico Hard, Monaco Cocktails, and ready-to-drink beverages. The company targets each of Monaco and Fever-Tree to contribute between 1% and 2% of net sales revenue, while the large-scale core brands serve as its cash-generation base.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, the company reported revenue of $3.6 billion and gross profit of $1.1 billion, representing a calculated gross margin of approximately 30.6%. Net income was $231.7 million, representing a calculated net margin of approximately 6.4%, and earnings per share reached $1.23. On a constant-currency basis, net sales revenue declined 3.6%, underlying income before taxes fell 27.8%, and underlying earnings per share declined 22.9%, demonstrating that exceeding expectations did not prevent continued pressure on sales and underlying earnings.

The performance mix was uneven in Q2 of fiscal year 2026: U.S. domestic shipments declined 7.3%, and brand volume in EMEA and APAC fell 3.4%, while Peroni achieved double-digit brand-volume growth in the United States and Coors Banquet grew in both share and volume. Net sales revenue also increased for Monaco, Topo Chico Hard, and Fever-Tree, with Fever-Tree recording its highest quarterly U.S. sales since the partnership began. For comparison, fiscal year 2025 revenue was approximately $13.0 billion, but the net loss reached $2.1 billion and earnings per share were negative $10.75, following a net loss of $2.9 billion in Q3 of fiscal year 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 guidance on August 6, 2026, assuming that the full-year decline in the U.S. beer segment would be smaller than the 5% decline in fiscal year 2025 and that shipments would modestly outpace the brand-volume trend during the second half of fiscal year 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Free cash flow jumped 75% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and the company paid $90 million in cash dividends and repurchased 1 million shares for $42 million. Since announcing the repurchase program in October 2023, it has repurchased the equivalent of 15.3% of outstanding Class B shares, with $2.35 billion remaining under the authorization.
  • Expanding Monaco Cocktails is an important driver of portfolio diversification; its revenue and earnings contributions were slightly above acquisition expectations during the first full quarter of ownership. Most Monaco sales are concentrated in five states and convenience stores, so the company plans to expand the brand gradually into additional channels and states while first maintaining execution in its existing markets.
  • Specific innovations are supporting improvement in parts of the portfolio: demand for the limited-edition Keystone Light Apple exceeded available production, prompting the company to bring it back in fall 2026, while also relaunching Keystone Ice and continuing to support Miller High Life. In the premium category, Peroni volumes in the United States grew at a double-digit rate, while both Blue Moon non-alc and Peroni 0.0% grew during Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
  • The $450 million three-year cost-savings program is a key tool for countering inflation and includes restructuring measures in EMEA and APAC and the closure of a small brewery in the United Kingdom. The company also allocated part of its announced $650 million in global capital expenditure to modernize supply-chain capabilities, including canning lines and material-receiving facilities at Rocky Mountain Metal Company.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The company's cash-generation capacity remains a strength, as free cash flow increased 75% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 alongside $90 million in dividends and $42 million in share repurchases.
    • +The brand portfolio provides diversification across value, core, premium, and beyond-beer products; Coors Banquet grew in share and volume, Peroni achieved double-digit volume growth in the United States, and Fever-Tree recorded its highest quarterly U.S. sales since the partnership began.
    • +The acquisition of Atomic Brands and its Monaco product provides a path for growth outside beer, as its revenue and earnings contributions were slightly above acquisition expectations, while the concentration of most sales in five states creates an opportunity for geographic and channel expansion if the company succeeds in replicating its execution model.
    • +Net debt to underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization improved to 2.53 times by the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026, approaching the company's target of less than 2.5 times by the end of fiscal year 2026. Extending debt maturities, with $2.35 billion remaining under the repurchase authorization, provides flexibility to allocate capital among investment, acquisitions, debt reduction, and shareholder returns.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The core business is experiencing a clear contraction in demand; net sales revenue declined 3.6% on a constant-currency basis in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, U.S. domestic shipments fell 7.3%, and brand volume in EMEA and APAC dropped 3.4%. According to company estimates, the U.S. beer segment also weakened from a 1.6% decline in Q1 to a 4.2% decline in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
    • −Market-share improvement has not reached management's target, despite modest progress in Q2 compared with Q1 of fiscal year 2026. Coors Light and Miller Lite still require stronger campaigns, partnerships, and commercial execution, while the broader Blue Moon franchise remained under pressure and Carling and Madri faced intense competition and promotional activity in Europe.
    • −Profitability is under greater pressure than revenue; underlying income before taxes declined 27.8%, and underlying earnings per share fell 22.9% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. The Midwest Premium added approximately $40 million to quarterly cost of sales compared with the prior year, and the company raised its estimate of the annual impact from at least $125 million to more than $130 million, alongside higher fuel and freight costs.
    • −Fiscal year 2026 guidance depends partly on the U.S. beer segment improving from its 5% decline in fiscal year 2025 and on no further escalation of geopolitical events. The company explained that energy and inflation shocks related to the conflict in Iran weakened consumer confidence and that higher fuel prices changed the package sizes and channels selected by buyers.
    • −The World Cup did not produce the expected industry-wide sales surge, despite strong performance in host cities and approximately 14% higher activity in on-premise locations compared with off-premise channels, according to management. Elevated industry expectations also intensified competition and promotional activity, particularly in the United Kingdom and Europe, limiting Molson Coors' benefit from the event.
    • −

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on TAP is Neutral, with an average price target of $42.8 and a range of $41 to $46, while the 52-week range extends from $38.04 to $54.82. The average target is approximately 22% below the 52-week range high, consistent with pressure from declining revenue, volume, and underlying profitability, despite strong cash flow and some portfolio successes. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data following a net loss of $2.1 billion and negative earnings per share of $10.75 in fiscal year 2025, so the valuation assessment depends more heavily on an earnings recovery and execution of the cost program.

    HoldAnalyst target: $42.8(+9.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What were TAP's key results in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

    Molson Coors reported revenue of $3.6 billion and gross profit of $1.1 billion in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Net income was $231.7 million, earnings per share were $1.23, and free cash flow increased 75%. However, net sales revenue declined 3.6% on a constant-currency basis, underlying income before taxes fell 27.8%, and underlying earnings per share declined 22.9%.

    How is Molson Coors trying to offset weakness in the beer market?

    The Horizon 2030 strategy focuses on strengthening Miller and Coors, supporting growing brands such as Coors Banquet and Peroni, and expanding beyond traditional beer. In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, Peroni achieved double-digit brand-volume growth in the United States, while Coors Banquet grew in share and volume. The company also targets each of Monaco and Fever-Tree to contribute between 1% and 2% of net sales revenue, and Fever-Tree recorded its highest quarterly U.S. sales since the partnership began.

    Why did Molson Coors' volumes decline in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

    U.S. domestic shipments declined 7.3%, while brand volume in EMEA and APAC fell 3.4% during Q2 of fiscal year 2026. The company estimated that the U.S. beer segment declined approximately 4.2%, compared with a 1.6% decline in Q1 of fiscal year 2026. Management attributed the weakness to higher fuel prices, inflation, lower consumer confidence, and intense competition and promotional activity in the United Kingdom and Europe.

    How important is Monaco Cocktails to TAP's growth?

    The acquisition of Atomic Brands added Monaco Cocktails to the ready-to-drink beverage portfolio and closed in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Monaco's revenue and earnings contributions were slightly above acquisition expectations during the first full quarter of ownership. Most of the brand's sales are concentrated in five states, primarily in convenience stores and through single-serve packages, so the company sees an opportunity for gradual expansion into additional states and channels.

    What is the biggest pressure on Molson Coors' margins in fiscal year 2026?

    Aluminum, freight, and fuel costs represent the most significant pressures, with the Midwest Premium adding approximately $40 million to the cost of sales in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 compared with the prior year. The company expects the impact of this premium to exceed $130 million during fiscal year 2026, up from an initial estimate of at least $125 million. The company is using hedging and a $450 million three-year cost-savings program to partially mitigate the pressure, but it expects commodity costs to remain elevated in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

    How does TAP's valuation look according to the analyst consensus?

    The consensus rating for TAP is Neutral, with an average price target of $42.8 within a range of $41 to $46. The average is approximately 22% below the 52-week range high of $54.82, while the low end of the range is $38.04. No valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data following a net loss of $2.1 billion and negative earnings per share of $10.75 in fiscal year 2025, making an earnings recovery a central factor in the stock's valuation.

    The neutral analyst consensus reflects caution about a renewed acceleration in the business, with an average target of $42.8 within a relatively narrow range of $41 to $46. The average target is approximately 22% below the 52-week range high of $54.82, while no valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data because of the $2.1 billion fiscal year 2025 loss, making it difficult to rely on historical earnings to justify the valuation.