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Stocks
Talos Energy Inc.
TALO

TALO Talos Energy Inc.

Talos Energy Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
17.68
▲ ⁦+0.80%⁩ (+0.14)
Market Cap$3.0B
Beta0.34
52w Low52w High
8.8718.44
Last Week
⁦+2.61%⁩
Last Month
⁦+22.95%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+20.52%⁩
Last Year
⁦+85.13%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall24
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketTurnaroundF 5/9Better than 24% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
73
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
53
2.4%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
21
-4.5%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
51
1.0x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
39
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
95
45.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
44
5▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$18
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$18
⁦+2%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$17–$20⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$35
⁦+99%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$18–$35⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$18.33
⁦+3.7%⁩
Current Price $17.68·Median $18.00
Low
$17.00
High
$20.00
Current price
$17.68
Average target
$18.33
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus with Limited Dispersion

The consensus price target rose from 17.50 to 18.33 over the last 7 and 30 days, an increase of 0.83 or 4.74%, while the number of analysts remained at 3. There was no change over the last day. Current targets range between 17 and 20, while the median is 18, indicating limited variation in estimates without a clear widening of analyst dispersion.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+4.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.80
Buy
Analyst coverage
10
Buy conviction
70%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
17%
Analyst ratings over time10 analysts rating
1
6
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.64 → 3.80
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-07
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-20
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-01
    Roth MKM
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    50.34x
    3.36x26.89x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    5.44x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    11.0%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    2.4%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -160.0%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    26.1%
    7.8%72.1%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    -4.5%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Below average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.00x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Talos Energy Inc. is an independent offshore exploration and production company focused on building an oil portfolio in the Gulf of America, generating revenue from oil and gas production from offshore assets. In Q2 of fiscal 2026, oil production averaged approximately 69 thousand barrels per day, while total production approached 94 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day; oil therefore represented approximately 73% of production volume. The company is also expanding its resources through the Na Kika and Coulomb assets, the Polok and Chinwol projects in Block 29 in Mexico, and the seismic survey program in Honduras.

The latest available EDGAR statements for Q1 of fiscal 2026 showed revenue of $472.3 million, compared with a net loss of $256.2 million and a loss per share of $1.52, and the data did not include a figure for gross profit or gross profit margin. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in fiscal 2026, revenue reached $1.7 billion and the net loss was $740.6 million, compared with revenue of $1.8 billion and a net loss of $494.3 million in fiscal 2025.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, the call did not provide a revenue or net income figure, but reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $402 million and record adjusted free cash flow of approximately $232 million. Management attributed this to production exceeding guidance, higher operational uptime, and improved crude oil realized prices relative to WTI. The company also exceeded two-thirds of its 2026 target under the Optimal Performance Plan during the first half of fiscal 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Talos raised its standalone production guidance for fiscal 2026 to a range of 64–68 thousand barrels of oil per day and 87–91 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, despite incorporating the impact of the divestiture of non-core shelf assets and excluding the offshore acquisition that had not closed as of August 5, 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Q2 of fiscal 2026 generated record adjusted free cash flow of approximately $232 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $402 million, supported by production of approximately 69 thousand barrels of oil per day and total production approaching 94 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.
  • The Gulf of America asset transaction would add assets that produced approximately 18 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 of fiscal 2026, with approximately 20% growth in oil production according to management. After BP did not exercise its preferential right, Talos said on August 5, 2026 that it would become the operator of the Coulomb field and a partner in the Na Kika platform and several associated fields upon completion of the transaction.
  • Operational projects advanced during Q2 of fiscal 2026; the Genovesa well returned to production ahead of schedule, Cardona continued to exceed expectations, and the first development well at Monument was drilled. Non-productive time in the drilling program since the beginning of fiscal 2026 also declined by approximately 50% relative to the Gulf of America basin average.
  • Block 29 provides a development path based on the existing Polok and Chinwol discoveries, both located entirely within the block, with a final investment decision targeted for 2027 and a potential exploration well in late 2027. In Honduras, the acreage covers approximately four million acres, equivalent to approximately 700 Gulf of America blocks, and the company identified four to five exploration opportunities before evaluating the three-dimensional survey data.
  • Cash was approximately $578 million and total liquidity was approximately $1.2 billion in Q2 of fiscal 2026, while the leverage ratio declined to 0.5 times. The company issued $800 million of 8% senior notes due in 2034 and used part of the proceeds to redeem $625 million of 9% notes due in 2029 and fund part of the acquisition.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +The strength of the operating asset base is evident in Q2 fiscal 2026 production exceeding guidance and record adjusted free cash flow of $232 million, enabling the company to raise fiscal 2026 guidance despite the impact of the shelf asset sale.
    • +The Na Kika and Coulomb assets could expand oil production and the development inventory in an area familiar to Talos, as the targeted assets produced approximately 18 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 of fiscal 2026, and management expects their unit operating costs and EBITDA margin to be better than the company's averages.
    • +Financial flexibility improved with liquidity of $1.2 billion and leverage of 0.5 times in Q2 of fiscal 2026, alongside extending debt maturity and reducing the interest rate on the refinanced notes from 9% to 8%. Management expects pro forma leverage at the end of 2027 to remain below one time.
    • +The portfolio combines existing production with projects at multiple stages; Monument, Brutus, and Daenerys represent nearer-term opportunities, while Block 29 adds two existing discoveries and Honduras provides long-term exploration optionality at an entry cost that management described as extremely low.
    • +The company returned approximately $135 million to shareholders through share repurchases since announcing the framework in Q2 of fiscal 2025, reducing shares outstanding by approximately 7%. The framework calls for returning up to 50% of annual free cash flow while balancing this with investment and maintaining balance-sheet strength.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Continued accounting losses represent the clearest financial risk; the net loss was $256.2 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026 and $740.6 million over the trailing twelve months of fiscal 2026, following an annual loss of $494.3 million in fiscal 2025.
    • −Q3 fiscal 2026 guidance declines to 61–65 thousand barrels of oil per day and 81–85 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with Q2 production of approximately 69 thousand barrels of oil per day and nearly 94 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. This reflects a lower expected quarterly production level, even with the increase in full-year fiscal 2026 guidance.
    • −Portfolio expansion depends on completing and integrating the Gulf of America asset transaction, operating Coulomb, and participating in Na Kika, while the company financed part of the transaction by issuing $800 million of new notes. Therefore, any delay in closing or weak operating performance from the assets could reduce the expected benefits from production and cash flow growth.
    • −The development and exploration portfolio carries execution, geological, and timing risks; results from the first appraisal well at Daenerys were expected before the end of fiscal 2026, the Block 29 investment decision is targeted for 2027, and Honduras requires a three-dimensional survey and an environmental permit before a drilling decision. Undeveloped resources or exploration opportunities may not become commercial production within the targeted schedules.
    • −Results remain sensitive to oil prices, as management attributed part of the record free cash flow in Q2 of fiscal 2026 to improved crude realized prices relative to WTI. A reversal of this improvement could pressure EBITDA, free cash flow, and the company's ability to combine investment with share repurchases.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $17.5, within a narrow range of $17 to $18, with a consensus Buy rating; the average is approximately 5% below the 52-week range high of $18.44, while the range low is $8.87. There is no usable P/E ratio because of the trailing-twelve-month net loss of $740.6 million, so justification for the target depends on Talos's ability to convert record production, acquisitions, and offshore projects into sustainable cash flows while containing leverage and execution risks.

    BuyAnalyst target: $17.5(-1.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove Talos Energy's performance in Q2 of fiscal 2026?

    Oil production averaged approximately 69 thousand barrels per day, while total production approached 94 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, both exceeding company guidance. Increased operational uptime, production optimization initiatives, and Cardona's performance helped generate adjusted EBITDA of approximately $402 million and record adjusted free cash flow of approximately $232 million. Genovesa also returned to production ahead of schedule, and the drilling program since the beginning of fiscal 2026 achieved non-productive time approximately 50% below the basin average.

    How will the Na Kika and Coulomb transaction affect Talos?

    The targeted assets produced approximately 18 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 of fiscal 2026, and management expects the transaction to result in approximately 20% growth in oil production. After BP did not exercise its preferential right, Talos said on August 5, 2026 that it would assume operatorship of Coulomb and become a partner in the Na Kika platform and associated fields upon completion. Management believes the assets' oil weighting, unit operating costs, and EBITDA margin will be accretive to the company's averages.

    What is Talos's production guidance for fiscal 2026?

    The company raised standalone business guidance to 64–68 thousand barrels of oil per day and total production of 87–91 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for fiscal 2026. This guidance includes the impact of the sale of non-core shelf assets but excludes the Gulf of America asset transaction, which had not closed as of August 5, 2026. Guidance for Q3 of fiscal 2026 is 61–65 thousand barrels of oil per day and total production of 81–85 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.

    How important is Block 29 in Mexico to Talos's portfolio?

    Block 29 is anchored by the existing Polok and Chinwol discoveries, both located entirely within the block, and Talos and Repsol are partners in the project. The two companies are targeting a final investment decision in 2027, alongside technical work supporting a potential exploration well in late 2027. Talos believes the proposed infrastructure for the two discoveries could later allow additional resources within the block or other discoveries in the area to be tied back.

    How large is Talos's opportunity in Honduras, and what risks are associated with it?

    The offshore acreage covers approximately four million acres, equivalent to approximately 700 Gulf of America blocks, and the company identified four to five exploration opportunities. Management said on August 5, 2026 that it would begin a three-dimensional seismic survey program before the end of fiscal 2026 while working on an environmental drilling permit that, once issued, begins a two-year timeframe. The opportunity remains at an early stage, and the drilling decision will depend on the survey results, seismic processing, and the potential introduction of a partner on terms Talos considers value-accretive.

    Does the balance sheet allow the company to fund growth and share repurchases?

    Cash was approximately $578 million and total liquidity was approximately $1.2 billion in Q2 of fiscal 2026, with a leverage ratio of 0.5 times. Talos issued $800 million of 8% notes due in 2034 and redeemed $625 million of 9% notes due in 2029, while also securing an additional $150 million of bank commitments that become effective when the acquisition closes. Since Q2 of fiscal 2025, the company has repurchased approximately $135 million of shares and reduced shares outstanding by approximately 7%, despite pausing purchases in Q2 of fiscal 2026 during the acquisition-related blackout period.

  • −No meaningful P/E ratio is available because of the losses, making the stock's valuation more dependent on expected cash flows and project success. Insiders also recorded net sales of approximately $2.5 million over three months through two sales with no purchases, with the latest transaction on August 27, 2026; however, this is a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data indicates otherwise.