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TAL Education Group
TAL

TAL TAL Education Group

TAL Education Group · NYSE
Market Closed
11.81
▲ ⁦+2.70%⁩ (+0.31)
Market Cap$7.2B
Beta0.07
52w Low52w High
8.8813.37
Last Week
⁦-1.50%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.51%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+17.40%⁩
Last Year
⁦+9.25%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall99
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/8Better than 99% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
95
2.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
96
32.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
76
2.5%▼4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
74
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
92
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
66
15.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
53
9▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$12
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$14
⁦+15%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$14–$14⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$13.60
⁦+15.2%⁩
Current Price $11.81·Median $13.60
Low
$13.60
High
$13.60
Street summary

Sharp adjustment in price targets for TAL stock

Bearish tilt

The analyst outlook for TAL stock has seen a notable negative shift over the past thirty days, with the price target lowered from 18.0 to 13.6, a sharp decline of 24.44%. This adjustment reflects a significant reduction in expectations, although the current price (12.38) remains below the new target, indicating a comprehensive reassessment of risks despite continued revenue and earnings growth projections through 2029.

As of 2026-08-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.11
Buy
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
84%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
5
11
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.20 → 4.11
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    Jefferies
    Hold
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-01-30
    Macquarie
    NeutralOutperform· $18.00
  • = Reiterate2025-12-15
    Oppenheimer
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    2.46x
    4.61x36.85x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    12.47x
    3.86x30.86x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    2.17x
    2.86x22.90x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    23.1%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    32.6%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    1102.5%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    56.0%
    9.2%67.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    2.5%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

TAL Education Group operates in education through two interconnected pillars: learning services, which include in-person Peiyou programs and online enrichment services, and content solutions that distribute proprietary and third-party educational content through learning devices. Peiyou remained the largest revenue contributor during quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027, while the company’s network expanded to more than 600 learning centers across 44 cities in mainland China and selected international markets, and in-person programs recorded double-digit year-over-year growth and a retention rate exceeding 80%.

Revenue for quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027 ended May 31, 2026 reached approximately $758 million, up 32% year over year in U.S. dollar terms and 25% in renminbi terms. Gross profit rose 39% to $438 million, and gross margin expanded to 57.8% from 54.9%, while operating income jumped to $137 million from $14 million, and non-GAAP operating income reached $149 million at a margin of 19.6% versus 4.4%.

Net income attributable to TAL reached approximately $408 million in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027, compared with $31 million a year earlier, but part of the increase was related to higher valuations of certain investments recorded within other income, a gain that management said may not recur. On an annual basis, fiscal year 2026 revenue increased to $3.0 billion from $2.3 billion in fiscal year 2025, and net income rose to $530.8 million from $84.6 million, with earnings per share of 2.75 versus 0.41.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Demand for Peiyou continued to drive the core business during quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027; in-person programs achieved double-digit year-over-year growth and maintained a retention rate above 80%, with disciplined expansion across a network of more than 600 centers in 44 cities in mainland China and selected international markets.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

TAL launched the T6 series in July 2026 and added an AI learning assistant that provides pre-lesson guidance, real-time feedback, summaries, learning diagnostics, and personalized study plans. The number of weekly active learning devices exceeded 2 million in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027, with a weekly activity rate of approximately 80% and average daily usage of approximately 1 hour per device.
  • Operating efficiency improved substantially in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027; selling and marketing expenses declined 5% to $172 million, and their non-GAAP ratio fell to 22% of revenue from 31% a year earlier, helping lift the non-GAAP operating margin to 19.6%.
  • Operations generated $478 million in cash flow in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027, and liquidity as of May 31, 2026 totaled approximately $1.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, in addition to $1.2 billion in short-term investments and $306 million in restricted cash.
  • In July 2026, the board extended the share repurchase program through July 28, 2027, authorizing spending of up to $393.7 million. Between April 23 and July 28, 2026, the company repurchased approximately 1.2 million shares for $41 million, after completing nearly $210 million in repurchases during the preceding 12 months.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The buying case is based on a clear profitability turnaround: net income improved from a loss of $3.6 million in fiscal year 2024 to $84.6 million in fiscal year 2025 and then to $530.8 million in fiscal year 2026, alongside revenue growth from $1.5 billion to $3.0 billion over the same period.
    • +Quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027 demonstrated strong operating leverage, as revenue grew 32% and gross profit rose 39%, while non-GAAP operating income increased 492% to $149 million and its margin expanded from 4.4% to 19.6%.
    • +TAL combines sustained demand for Peiyou, which achieved double-digit growth and retention above 80%, with a learning-device base exceeding 2 million weekly active devices; this integration could increase user engagement across in-person and digital services and content.
    • +Cash and short-term investments totaling $2.8 billion as of May 31, 2026 provide flexibility to fund product development, center expansion, and share repurchases, while the remaining repurchase authorization extends to up to $393.7 million through July 28, 2027.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The learning-device business faces increasing competition, volatile consumer sentiment, and rising component costs, particularly memory chips; management expects these pressures and market volatility to persist during fiscal year 2027, despite measures to optimize inventory, reduce stock-keeping units, and refine the product portfolio.
    • −The pace of growth is slowing following the expansion in business scale; management said on the July 30, 2026 call that the growth rate had begun returning to more moderate levels during previous quarters and that it expected further moderation in the following quarter of fiscal year 2027.
    • −The jump in net income in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027 does not reflect operating performance alone, because higher valuations of certain investments were the primary driver of the increase in other income. Management confirmed that these gains are tied to market movements and may not recur, making net income of $408 million less suitable for extrapolation than operating income of $137 million.
    • −Despite the expansion in operating margin, general and administrative expenses rose 7% to $129 million in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027, while share-based compensation expenses reached $12 million versus $11 million a year earlier; continued growth in these items could limit operating leverage gains.
    • −The valuation carries a cautious signal because the analyst consensus is “Neutral” rather than Buy, and because the sole target of $13.6 lacks a meaningful range of opinions; the highest and lowest targets are identical at $13.6, reducing the diversity of estimates underlying the average.
    • −Net insider activity during the 3 months ended with the latest transaction on August 3, 2026 was a sale of 368,430 shares, with no purchases and 1 sale recorded. This remains a weak trading signal on its own, because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data disclose otherwise.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Neutral,” with an average target of $13.6 and identical highest and lowest targets at the same level; this target is slightly above the 52-week range high of $13.37, but it is based on 1 estimate with no visible dispersion of views. The 52-week range is between $8.88 and $13.37, while no reliable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the strong operating improvement should be weighed against the expected growth slowdown and the nonrecurring nature of investment valuation gains.

    HoldAnalyst target: $13.6(+15.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What was the primary revenue driver for TAL in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027?

    In-person Peiyou programs remained the largest contributor to TAL’s revenue during quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027. These programs achieved double-digit year-over-year growth, supported by stable demand and expansion of the learning-center network. Student retention exceeded 80%, while the company operated more than 600 centers in 44 cities in mainland China and selected international markets.

    How did TAL perform financially in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027?

    Revenue reached approximately $758 million in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027 ended May 31, 2026, up 32% year over year in U.S. dollar terms. Gross profit rose 39% to $438 million, and gross margin expanded to 57.8% from 54.9%. Operating income also reached $137 million, and net income attributable to TAL was approximately $408 million, compared with $14 million and $31 million, respectively, a year earlier.

    How important are T6 devices to TAL’s business?

    TAL launched the T6 series in July 2026 as its latest flagship educational devices. The series includes an AI learning assistant that provides pre-lesson guidance, real-time feedback, summaries, learning diagnostics, and personalized study plans, while the international version expanded global resources and curricula. In quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027, weekly active devices exceeded 2 million, with an activity rate of approximately 80% and average daily usage of approximately 1 hour per device.

    Is the jump in TAL’s earnings in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027 repeatable?

    The operating business showed genuine improvement, as non-GAAP operating income rose 492% to $149 million and its margin expanded to 19.6% from 4.4%. However, higher valuations of certain investments contributed to the increase in other income and supported net income of $408 million. Management said on the July 30, 2026 call that the valuation gains were tied to market movements and may not recur, so it would be inappropriate to assume that quarterly net income will remain at the same level.

    What are the main risks facing TAL’s learning-device business in fiscal year 2027?

    Management identified 3 main pressures in fiscal year 2027: competition, changing consumer sentiment, and rising component costs, particularly memory chips. It expects the market to remain volatile and these factors to persist during fiscal year 2027. In response, TAL is working to optimize inventory, reduce stock-keeping units, refine the product portfolio, and improve efficiency, but these measures do not eliminate the risks of pressure on margins and demand.

    What is the size of TAL’s liquidity and share repurchase program?

    As of May 31, 2026, TAL held approximately $1.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $1.2 billion in short-term investments, and $306 million in restricted cash. Cash flow from operations reached $478 million in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2027. In July 2026, the board extended the repurchase program through July 28, 2027 for an amount of up to $393.7 million, after repurchasing approximately 1.2 million shares for $41 million between April 23 and July 28, 2026.